UFC 260 Post-Fight Analysis

Lately I have been doing a bit lazy previews, so ending up losing again on 260 is no wonder, but only one bet loss in straight picks isn't that bad. Lot of guys ended up getting killed on yesterday's card though.

Main Card

The main event was pretty clear on paper, and we really weren't surprised by anything we saw. Perhaps Miocic was a bit more timid than everyone expected, but that's what you would expect against someone so much smaller than you. I dunno, I feel like I would have clinched more, but even short elbows from Francis probably fuck you up pretty good, so wouldn't have made much difference for the outcome.

Stipe always needed to endure the first couple of rounds, but he really failed to even make Francis do much in the early going, and Francis fought with a lot better pacing. With the way things were going, even if Stipe survived, Francis probably would have had enough gas tank to bank three rounds. In the end though Francis was always gonna hit Stipe hard eventually. My attempt at hedging my bets with the first round KO failed though, should have just picked Francis by KO. 

Sadly again in a heavyweight fight, Herb was all the way out of the action when Ngannou dropped Miocic, and failed to prevent Stipe from eating a follow-up shot that surely makes all the difference between him having enough chin to continue his career and needing to retire now. Either way I hope he retires, he had great career, he will never reach those heights again and probably at 38 is past his prime enough to have problems with all top contenders.

Hopefully Francis will be an active champ and that fight against Jones will be made soon. Jones is the only one that I see immediately being a problem for Ngannou - he has the range to keep prodding at Francis without putting himself into immediate line of fire of those bombs, and should he get hit he has shown one of the best chins in the game thus far in his career - at HW he should be even better able to absorb big shots if need be, and of course Jones is legendary clinch fighter so he should be able to make all the way in or all the way out game plan work for him. 

The co-main event was a crazy fight. I didn't expect Woodley to actually ever fight with any urgency, but I was wrong. However as I wrote, I believed that even if best Woodley shows up, he is unlikely to have enough at 38 to beat prime Luque. Well, I was almost wrong, but Luque continues to prove he has one of the best chins in the game as he absorbed a huge T-bomb, only to stay composed and counter Woodley perfectly to send him on wobbly legs. Soon after that Luque wrapped up the compromised Woodley in a choke and that was it.

I do think Woodley will be cut now, either way this newer version of him looked like it could actually be a problem for a lot of guys and a fun fighter to watch.

Sean O'Malley didn't make a quick work of Thomas Almeida as it turn's out we all were wrong about Almeida's chin - it was granite as he absorbed whole bunch of clean shots through the fight without getting finished. Sadly again to ref was ultimately too late when the chin was finally cracked and O'Malley made sure Almeida wouldn't have any chin for the future with a devastating follow-up shot. 

Miranda Maverick and Gillian Robertson had a very close fight. Although the scorecards were terrible, right girl won as Maverick comfortably outstruck Robertson for two rounds, but struggled on the ground in the middle ground. Maverick still has room to improve, but nonetheless a promising performance against an opponent that's not easy to deal with.

I knew Khama Worthy was chinny but I did not expect the first clean shot of the night to put him out. That's what happened though, and Jamie Mullarkey claimed his first UFC win in 46 seconds. I guess that was also the only underdog of the night that won?

Prelims

Fabio Cherant wasn't who I thought it was. I mean don't get me wrong, I wasn't expecting some world champ prospect, just someone somewhat competent to be able to stay out of danger with Menifield. Instead Cherant got fucking outgrappled by him. I dunno, maybe Menifield is improved, but it turned out Cherant was just too bad to be a challenge.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov dominated Jared Gooden in a fight that was almost completely contested on the feet. Good job on Nurmagomedov to show he is well-rounded. Michal Oleksiejczuk and Modestas Bukauskas had very close fight, felt like for most of the fight Oleksiejczuk was pressuring forward and winning more moments, but in actual damage and shots landed Bukauskas was getting the better of it. So it was bit of a weird fight to score, and Michal Oleksiejczuk split decision win was a bit controversial, but I take that cause it means my pick went right. Still good performance from Bukauskas nonetheless, definitely showed he belongs in UFC.

Shane Young kinda didn't show up against Omar Morales. Obviously the size difference was a big problem, but Young didn't look himself there, just too timid and not doing much, allowing Morales to coast to a victory in a snoozer of a fight.

Marc-Andre Barriault and Abu Azaitar started the night with one of the wildest scraps of the night. Abu started strong as both kept crazy pace, but eventually gassed bad by the third round and took a beating on the ground before the fight was finally stopped few seconds before the bell.

My picks

I got 6 out 10 straight picks right, and would have broken even had I just stuck to straight picks, but Francis 1st round KO and couple of parlays took me all in all 3.5 bets down. Meh, not terrible considering I did not really work that hard for my picks today. Fabio Cherant worst pick, even with great odds he just wasn't the kind of guy to ever win that fight and best pick was probably Barriault. Almost everyone who won were big favorites so no great betting value there.

There is now couple of weeks break, hopefully for the next event I can do much more thorough background research.