UFC on ESPN 21 Preview & Predictions

I talked last week about needing to work harder on my predictions... well, I ended up kinda throwing these previews together in the last minute again, so results might be so-so.

Main Event: Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland

That last Brunson fight was a painful learning experience for me. It seems like everyone and their grandma was picking Brunson at the great underdog odds, and I was one of the dummies to get caught up with the hype train about Edmen. I dunno, I still think Edmen will come out good, and to be fair I had not actually watched the Stewart fight where he gassed. Also Brunson was getting knocked out a lot, but it seems to me he has improved his defence since.

This is similar fight to that last fight. Kevin Holland is a young fighter coming into this with a lot of hype after getting five wins in a year. Difference is, he has not been just obliterating people fast like Edmen was, he has actually been going long in some of his fights and just been looking very solid all around. 

That being said, he has never really fought anyone of note aside his last fight against Jacare, and I thought Jacare would top control his way to victory... Well he got the TD, but then got KOd with that funky hammerfist. Was that just Jacare's chin being gone or some sort of Holland genius or remarkable power? I don't know, but Brunson is the toughest opponent Holland has ever faced. 

Still I think Holland dealt with Jacare's top control very well even before the KO, managed to threaten some submissions and even get up before ending back on the mat and scoring the KO. Still, you don't wanna be on your back against Brunson. Whatever faults he has, ground and pound isn't one of them. 

All in all I still lean towards Holland in this. Yeah, he hasn't beaten anyone of note really, even aged Jacare isn't that great of a win, but while he has been at it he has, for the most part, looked great. As much as Brunson looks greatly improved, he is 37 and has been KOd 5 times in his career - can you really trust on his chin in that situation?

Obviously Brunson's path to victory is either by powershot KO or takedowns and top control. Still think Holland will pick him apart from the distance. He is the better outside striker, probably has the better cardio as well and 4 inch reach advantage. Still, it's damn close match cause it's not like Brunson is a bad fighter. 

Prediction: Kevin Holland

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Kenan Song vs. Max Griffin

Griffin is the conventional wisdom pick here, but traditionally he has been kinda unreliable. He put it together beautifully last time around, but at the same time the opposition wasn't the highest level. Song isn't highest level either, but the guy does hit pretty hard and is dangerous striker, so I think he can definitely hang with Griffin in that area. Path of least resistance for Griffin would be to grapple, which on paper seems to be where he has biggest advantage.

The only risk with grappling heavy style is if he gasses out, but as I said, it looks like Griffin is starting to put everything together well based on that last performance so I would not expect that to happen. Either way, even if it is a kickboxing fight, Griffin is still a solid striker who has only been TKOd once, and he has a reasonably big reach advantage, so I think he would still win most of the time.

Prediction: Max Griffin

Confidence in winner: 3

Cheyanne Buys vs. Montserrat Ruiz

The names of these girls seem like they would be those randomly generated fighters late on in your career in the UFC games. 

After watching some tape on Ruiz I expected her to be like a 135er, cause the girl is pretty thick, so it was surprising to see she is actually at strawweight. When I saw she is 5'0 it suddenly started to make sense. Would seem she is undersized, but obviously got a stocky build and packs some power in her punches and has natural aggression, all good traits to have when are the shorter fighter practically always.

Buys has only 6 pro fights going into her UFC debut, but she had very extensive amateur career before it. Whereas Ruiz has only seen decision in half of her fights, Buys has been a decision machine with only one finish to her name. Still, I can understand why people are high on her. Clean striking, obviously very athletic, and a little bit of a mean streak that goes a long way especially in women's MMA.

As far as girls' fights go, this one might be a good one. Still, expecting Buys to be too long and skilled here for Ruiz, actually kinda expect something similar than the recent Haqparast fight where the Mexican fighter keeps pushing forward despite getting punished a lot.

Prediction: Cheyanne Buys

Confidence in winner: 3

Adrian Yanez vs. Gustavo Lopez

Both guys are kinda hittable, but Lopez is definitely far more the defensively suspect fighter. To that point Yanez has never been finished, with all 3 of his losses coming via decision, but Lopez has taken couple of KO losses and when you look at the guy fighting hands down and chin up, it's no wonder really. 

Think it's a bad combination against Yanez who is offensively very potent striker. Like I said though, both have defensive openings, and Lopez hits hard too, so this might go either way as an early finish. Lopez also might have grappling advantage so I could see him bulldoze his way into some takedowns. 

That makes it a closer fight, still I am heavy favoring Yanez here to score a spectacular KO. He is the longer guy with 3 inch reach advantage and makes very good use of that reach.

Prediction: Adrian Yanez

Confidence in winner: 3

Tai Tuivasa vs. Harry Hunsucker

Quite literally massive fight here with p4p implications. Everyone's two favorite, most skilled heavyweight's scrap it out for what could be described as The People's Championship. Expect the unexpected.

Hunsucker as 14 fights, pro and amateur combined. Only one fight of those made it out of the 1st round, and even that finished in 2nd. So he has never seen a decision, or even late 2nd round. So fight goes the distance is basically a lock here. Seriously though, it doesn't look like Hunsucker deals very well with fatigue. he is dangerous striker early on, but that's over in mere minutes.

Hunsucker really only has a chance here if Tai fights stupid, doesn't utilize his improved clinch work early to wear Hunsucker out and instead stands and bangs those early minutes.

Once the fight goes a little longer, it's Tai in whatever way he chooses to win it, so I figure Tai Tuivasa via 2nd round omoplata.

Prediction: Tai Tuivasa

Confidence in winner: 4

Marion Reneau vs. Macy Chiasson

My first instinct was the Chiasson will just bully Reneau with her size and strength, but honestly she is technically still so raw that I think Reneau might actually make it a tight fight. I think the biggest question is Reneau's age with another 9 months added after the Pennington fight. Sure it was a competitive scrap and in women's fights the age probably won't be as big of a factor but... Still, I think it's just gonna be another case of falling a little bit short.

She definitely has ways to win this through high volume striking and occasional takedown to get rounds, so guess it depends on the odds. Certainly Chiasson should not be as massive favorite as she has been most of the her career.

Well not massive favorite, but still bigger than I would like. Eh, I don't like it, but I am gonna go with my first instinct but just a small stake.

Prediction: Macy Chiasson

Confidence in winner: 2

Leonardo Santos vs. Grant Dawson

Santos is already 41, and I remember his last fight well even aside having already taped it. I was on Bogatov in that fight, obviously a poor pick in hindsight, but the infuriating thing that Bogatov could have had it if he just had some fight IQ and tried to just swing power punches for 3rd round. Santos gassed pretty hard in that fight. That doesn't mean that his gas tank is gone, after all it was a high-pace bout, but it does show Santos can be vulnerable late on.

Grant fights a little bit wild, but he has pretty solid fundamentals, goes after your leg and has excellent wrestling. 

I would say Santos is overall the better fighter and more likely to get the finish here, but Dawson more likely to win rounds if that makes sense. However Santos being 41 makes me very hesitant to pick him, even if he did not look like he has lot of miles on him last time around. Dawson has only been beaten by KO. I think most likely this will be a close decision.

Prediction: Grant Dawson

Confidence in winner: 2

Trevin Giles vs. Roman Dolidze

Conventional wisdom from smarter bettors than me seems to suggest that Dolidze shouldn't be a favorite and therefore Giles would be the pick here. I just don't see how though. Dolidze is a bigger man and although Giles has more experience and couple of straight wins under his belt, it was against considerably smaller men via very underwhelming performances.

Plus Lewis didn't even try to attack the weakness in Giles' standup - that heavy front leg, there to be kicked all night to oblivion. Roman does like his kicks, so with reach on his side, he won't be making this a boxing match, he will kick Giles from range and take him down going in. 

Giles has some way of winning it by wearing Roman out, but since Roman can just bail himself out by snapping up takedowns, I think it's unlikely to be the issue. The only caveats about picking Roman is the fact he hasn't really beaten anyone of note and isn't very experienced, but the guy looks powerful, violent and big, so to me Giles isn't the guy I will fade him with. 

Prediction: Roman Dolidze

Confidence in winner: 3

Montel Jackson vs. Jesse Strader

This Strader guy obviously packs a lot of punch, but he is at a reach, experience and grappling disadvantage here and is fairly hittable to begin with. Jackson lost a tight fight against Johns last time around, but there is no shame in losing to Johns, who is one of the more under-appreciated bantamweights - it's almost criminal the guy is no longer in the UFC.

Jackson is defensively sound, has huge reach here, and has never been KOd. So I don't think Strader will be able to powershot him out of there like he has done to most of his opponents. Because of the reach Montel will also just pepper him with shots in standing, and if he tries to force himself close, Montel will just clinch knee him into oblivion or take him down. Aside lucky shot, I don't see Strader winning this.

Prediction: Montel Jackson

Confidence in winner: 4

Bruno Silva vs. J.P. Buys

Silva's time in the UFC has been kinda rough, but to be fair he has fought some high level guys coming in. JP Buys seems another one in that same mold. Think this could be close fight in every regard, Silva might be small and have short reach, but he is tough and has decent grappling, and he is willing to really plant and swing hard shots.

Still think Buys will probably edge the rounds closely if he does not get the finish, as the naturally bigger man. The size is not such a massive difference, but when the guys seems pretty even aside that, you kinda feel like Silva will struggle here either getting hit coming in or getting taken down by pushing forward too much. Still it's anything but a clear match-up either way.

Prediction: JP Buys

Confidence in winner: 3