UFC Fight Night 187 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Belal Muhammad vs. Leon Edwards

Ever since Belal debuted in the UFC I have been remembering the name and now he finally gets his chance in the spotlight, headlining against Edwards who has spent forever on the sidelines. Polar opposites in that regard, Belal has been very active lately, Edwards on the other hand last fought in 2019.

I get it that Edwards is very highly touted, but none of his wins are really that impressive. Beating up a faded RDA and Cowboy, both guys since back in lightweight, as a big welterweight is not that impressive. Luque is the biggest name for me he has beaten, but at 2017 Luque wasn't the same guy he is these days. 

Either way, Edwards hasn't lost in a long time and has looked pretty dominant against everyone he has faced since losing to Usman. I think he has Belal covered in every range here, and only way Belal wins it is either Edwards gasses out or if he just picks off close rounds via volume. 

Prediction: Leon Edwards

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Ryan Spann vs. Misha Cirkunov

It's Spann's power vs. Cirkunov's wrestling basically. Neither aren't world class, but still good nonetheless. I think the fight is lined pretty much correct so not much value to be found, Cirkunov is notoriously a little bit chinny but think he can get the takedown nice and early and club his way to victory.

Prediction: Misha Cirkunov

Confidence in winner: 2

Dan Ige vs. Gavin Tucker

Very close fight on paper. My gut feeling is that Ige is the better striker, definitely has the better footwork and will be also enjoying reach advantage here. That being said recent going has been a little bit tough for him, whereas Tucker has looked very impressive against variety of opponents - although not as high level guys as Ige. 

Kinda feel like grappling of these guys cancels itself out but if I had to give someone advantage there, it would be Tucker. Still I feel the fight will play largely on the feet and in that realm, I would say Ige has the edge. 

Still let's see the odds, this ought to be pretty close to pick 'em and I would like some Tucker here if he is reasonably big underdog. 

I think it's about right but I still have Tucker with that line.

Prediction: Gavin Tucker

Confidence in winner: 2

Jonathan Martinez vs. Davey Grant

Grant seems to make too much mistakes, Martinez on the other hand has been quietly rising up the ranks, is just a solid fighter who keeps volume on your and stays technical. Grant is also getting up in age so will be interesting to see how well he keeps up.

Prediction: Jonathan Martinez

Confidence in winner: 4

Manel Kape vs. Matheus Nicolau Pereira

Two very fast guys, it will be interesting to see who has the advantage. Nicolau is the better grappler, but not as powerful and decorated striker as Kape is. 

Kape's problem in his UFC debut was the low volume, but hard to imagine him not having more urgency here after being clowned by the whole internet for his debut performance. 

Might go either way, but like many other I lean on Kape here.

Prediction: Manel Kape

Confidence in winner: 3

Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart

Stewart came back to UFC off of a loss, but has looked pretty good since, subbing Maki Pitolo and then having a close fight with Kevin Holland. Eryk Anders on the other hand has pretty much lost to anyone remotely good since his main event spot against Lyoto Machida back in 2018. 

It's been almost a year since Jotko decisioned Anders, so I guess he might have improved in the meantime, but at the same time with a 33-year-old fighter you gotta wonder how much can he really add to his game at this point. 

Basically Stewart struggles with wrestling guys, so unless Anders finds that powershot he hasn't been finding lately, he will decision this 30-27 with volume as Anders doesn't have the gas tank to consistently wrestle.

Prediction: Darren Stewart

Confidence in winner: 4

Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder

After back-to-back split decision losses, Hill gets a drop in competition in facing Yoder. Probably not what Hill wanted though given she is getting up there in age and her chances of making a title run are dwindling. Either way, this should be very winnable fight for one of the most active female fighters.

They've also apparently fought before back in 2017, with Hill winning then. I feel like Hill has been the one to improve more then, so I don't really expect the result to flip, but Yoder's reach, clinching and grappling might still make this a tricky fight for Hill. Still, most of the time Hill will be just outboxing Yoder. 

Think the odds are too wide... Little punt on Yoder getting something Funky or top controlling two rounds.

Prediction: Ashley Yoder

Confidence in winner: 1

Charles Jourdain vs. Marcelo Rojo

This ought to be a close fight. Jourdain looked like a monster just few fights ago, but his biggest win is Korean superboy, who is frankly washed out, and since then Jourdain has hit some roadblocks. Rojo usually loses either by decision or a submission, and the guy obviously hits hard judging from the way he faceplanted the last guy.

Think this one will be an odds play as I don't see Jourdain imposing wrestleheavy gameplan and on the feet it's anybody's fight. 

Rojo hits hard, so let's go for it since odds are wide.

Prediction: Marcelo Rojo

Confidence in winner: 3

Rani Yahya vs. Ray Rodriguez

It gets ugly either way, but Rodriguez has been subbed by worse guys than Yahya, unless Yahya's chin is completely gone I don't see how Rodriguez keeps this so clean for full 15 minutes that he doesn't get into some trouble.

Prediction: Rani Yahya

Confidence in winner: 2

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Rafa Garcia

Think Nasrat just boxes Garcia's face off here. I mean you have to give some percentage to Rafa via powershot, and I guess wrestling is how he hot most of his wins, but he couldn't get worse Bandenay consistently down and Nasrat had basically zero trouble in his previous fight.

Garcia looks slow in comparison on the feet and has 3 inch reach disadvantage, think this could get ugly for the undefeated prospect.

Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast

Confidence in winner: 4

Cortney Casey vs. JJ Aldrich

Yippee, low-level women's MMA. Casey wouldn't actually be that bad if she didn't just give away the takedown every time. Occasionally she snaps up something off her back, but most of the time she just gets beaten for being on her back all fight. Against JJ Aldrich that's not a major threat though, unless he comes out with a completely different gameplan compared to his usual fights.

In striking it could be close, but I think Casey being the physically stronger woman would have looked at that 3rd round in Aldrich's fight against Mazo and figured to just bully her in the clinch. I would say Casey is pretty clear favorite therefore as the woman with far more weapons in her arsenal.

Prediction: Cortney Casey

Confidence in winner: 3

Gloria De Paula vs. Jinh Yu Frey

Frey has all the experience advantage here, but just like last time, she probably is outmatched both in the clinch and striking. De Paula obviously doesn't have the skills of Loma, but she is probably more athletically talented and I can imagine her getting the better of the striking with those sharp straight shots, and if Jinh Yu Frey tries to close the distance, she runs into De Paula's superior grappling.

Still De Paula has some regional MMA traits like giving up position to go for submissions, so she can definitely be giving away rounds here. This is not as clear fight as would at first see. De Paula as favorite but if it is very lopsided, Frey would become playable here.

Ehh, it's close, about right. Still sticking to De Paula

Prediction: Gloria De Paula

Confidence in winner: 3

Matthew Semelsberger vs. Jason Witt

It's pretty urgent Witt gets this into the ground, but Semelsberger doesn't seem to have too bad takedown defence... well, guess we find out, cause with high volume, solid boxing and 5 inch reach advantage, he is gonna be lighting Witt up as long as it is standing. With Witt being kind of chinny to begin with, it would be a a disaster for him. Witt's path to victory is through his solid top control, but think he will be struggling to get it consistently to the mat here.

Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger

Confidence in winner: 4

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