UFC 259 Preview & Predictions

Absolutely stacked event today, and unlike last week, almost no fights got cancelled so it was a long session to get all the fights previewed.

Main Event: Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya

Legendary Polish power vs. surgery like precision, eh? Like a lot of the fights on this card, it's kind of a tricky fight to predict. It's really hard to ever pick against Israel, but he is giving up probably about 30 pounds of size here... Then again he probably was giving up that much against Costa, and we know how one-sided beating that was. 

That fight was in the bigger cage though, and Costa never really showed up for that fight. Jan is gonna be much more durable guy. Much has been made of Jan's power, but probably for a 205er he isn't overall remarkably power - at least so you would think when you look at his overall record with only 8 KOs from 27 victories. That said he did obliterate Reyes and has 3 KOs in his last 4. So perhaps he is just putting it together lately so that the power can finally shine through?

He has 5 rounds here to work to impose that power on Israel and I would expect both guys to be kinda tentative. In that kind of fight Israel does well, but he has less margin for error against bigger guy in a smaller cage. So this needs to be Israel's masterpiece of a performance for him to win here. 

I don't expect Jan to impose some sort of chain-wrestling approach, he probably does not have the gas tank for that, but he should at least attempt some takedowns. Another pretty clear path to victory for him is just to pin Izzy on the cage and beat him up on the clinch. 

All in all it's pretty clear Israel is the more skilled fighter here, but Jan has power and size, it's just question if he is far enough in the continuum to be too much to deal with. It's not like Izzy is some monster that has never been KOd. Still I don't see Jan winning a decision here so all in all you have to have Izzy as at least 60 % favorite. 

Prediction: Israel Adesanya

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Amanda Nunes vs. Megan Anderson

Megan can be a problem for Amanda cause she is big and tall, but aside that Nunes ought to have her outgunned everywhere, and if I am wrong that actually Megan has the edge on the feet, Nunes is still much the better grappler.

Hence the odds are what they are... very wide. In fact are they too wide to have any play here? Well fact is Nunes has lost enough fights that if we just look at her career win %, Anderson ought to be the play here. She is a different beast now than when she last lost in 2014 though, so that's too over-simplified thinking.

Still if there is actually a path to victory for Megan, you have to play her here, cause the odds are simply too wide. Yes, she is nowhere near as good as Nunes, but she can show up absolutely conditioned (as you would expect from a James Krause -trained fighter), then just use her range to put on an high-pace kickboxing match until Nunes shoots, then defend the takedowns and wear Nunes out further in the clinch.

If there is an issue Nunes has ever had, it's been her cardio. Still, given the fact that she has now fought and won back-to-back 5-rounders, it seems like she has improved a lot in that regard. 

So in actuality I don't really believe in that scenario I just outlined. I think Nunes just takes Anderson down at will and probably finds a quick sub. Nunes is levels above most women in the sport and Anderson probably isn't even the best challenger. 

Prediction: Amanda Nunes

Confidence in winner: 5

Third Title Fight: Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling

Aljo is the longer guy, has the better grappling, as well as better kicks, and isn't a bad boxer either. He has been essentially the #1 guy for a while now, so I see this as the first legit title fight in the 135 pound division since Cejudo left. 

So with Aljo having more the weapons, I thought surely we have to favor him here... well, then I started thinking... Yan might be outgunned both in range and grappling here, but the guy has crazy grit, conditioning and durability. He might get absolutely annihilated in the first two rounds, but still keep putting the pace and throwing the hard shots. 

Aldo destroyed Yan's lead leg, dug absolute powershots into his body and some to his face as well, yet Yan never looked fazed at all, kept walking forward like a terminator. He is a tank. Also, he might not be a big grappler, but if he does manage to get on top of you, you are in trouble cause he will give you the hardest ground and pound we have seen in a while.

So it's not a clear fight to predict at all. Still, with the takedowns and range in his disposal, and with a good conditioning as well, I think Aljo should be able to win rounds more of the time here. It could be a split decision though in the end with lot of contentious rounds where Yan outstrikes Aljo only for Aljo to score a takedown or something. 

Prediction: Aljamain Sterling

Confidence in winner: 2

Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober

Islam might not be heralded cause he does not fight an exciting style, but he is solid everywhere and simply beats you up at your weakness. Dober has a way to win here via KO but aside that, he brings exactly the kind of fight to Islam that Islam fights - pressuring forward and being susceptible to takedowns. So Islam will be countering and taking him down all night.

Dober has improved his takedown defence, but we are talking about one of the best fighters in the division here so Islam ought to have no trouble to get his hands on him. If Dober doesn't get that KO in those little moments when they are out in the open, I don't see this ending well for him. Islam is hard to catch clean but he has been KOd once before, so it is not completely unrealistic scenario. Also expect Dober to chop down Islam's leg, the leg is there to be hit cause it's a southpaw v southpaw matchup.

Prediction: Islam Makhachev

Confidence in winner: 3

Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Santos is so incredibly powerful that he has a good chance against anyone, however his wrestling defence leaves a lot to be desired. Rakic used his wrestling to good effect against Smith to squeeze a decision, though you were left with a feeling that he might have won that fight in a more spectacular fashion too.

So all in all I feel like this ought to be a close fight, but the longer it runs the more it turns toward Rakic's favor - even if Santos carries his power deep into the fights. Still Rakic ought to chop at Santos's legs and see him get compromised the longer the fight goes. Then again, playing the stand-up game with Santos at all is probably not a good idea.

I think all in all I feel like Rakic should be the favorite here as he has more weapons in his disposal and because Marreta is already 37, but the guy who arguably beat the GOAT is always someone who could be worth a punt. So if there is a favorite, it should be a very slight one, and if it is bigger than that, we go for the underdog here.

Prediction: Thiago Santos

Confidence in winner: 2

Dominick Cruz vs. Casey Kenney

Find this a fascinating fight cause while Cruz is obviously fading and not the fighter he once was, he still has one of the better footworks in the game. Kenney is a very good fighter, but he is also very meat and potatoes Muay Thai with his approach, and I know that can get quite tough with someone who just isn't there for you to hit them. 

Then again the blueprint to beat Cruz kinda is out there already, just kick his legs to smithereens cause while he can move everything else away fast, usually that limb is out there still to be hit. Kenney will be helped in his quest to get a high-caliber win by the fact that they fight in a small cage.

Even if you manage to damage Cruz a bit it's not usually enough though, as he will hit those reactive takedowns too to seal close rounds. Cruz is master of winning close rounds and he only needs to secure two rounds to win this fight. There is no reason to think Cruz has lost his durability just because of Cejudo KOd him, that was a very hard shot and would have KOd almost anyone.

Kenney's beat Wood last time around, but he got hit a lot in that fight and Wood didn't really try to land any takedowns of his own. I dunno, I kinda feel like Kenney will struggle to hit Cruz as much as Cruz hits him, but land the harder shots. I expect a hard fight, but doubt Cruz is yet so gone that he can't squeeze a 29-28 here.

Prediction: Dominick Cruz

Confidence in winner: 3

Yadong Song vs. Kyler Phillips

Song is only 23 but you have to rate the guy very highly for still being undefeated in UFC despite already facing the likes of Vera and Stamann. His strength of schedule has been much stronger than that of Phillips, who only entered UFC last year, but has started with two wins.

I still think Vera won that Song fight though. It certainly looked like the nonstop pressure was making Song very uncomfortable, but it was still solid display of skill from Song to keep landing solid shots both in the pocket and in the clinch.

This seems to me another extremely close match-up just like Song's fight with Vera was. I think Kyler probably won't come at him as relentlessly though, I figure Kyler likes to strike from the outside much more. If Song could keep it standing against Vera, I figure he will do so against Phillips as well. I guess the fact Phillips has 5 inches of reach here will play a major factor in this fight, cause aside that it's a very close fight. So has to be Song who pressures Phillips so that he can't utilize his reach and kicking game. 

Basically I will pick whoever is the underdog, unless Phillips is only slight favorite. Most of the time this will be a close decision either way.

Prediction: Kyler Phillips

Confidence in winner: 3

Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov

I think the question here is how shot is Joe's chin after getting KOd twice by Deiveson... Well I mean technically latter was a submission but it was all because of hard shots. 

Joe got dropped pretty much every clean shot in those two fights and he is already 36... however, it is Deiveson Figueiredo we are talking about here. Very few guys possess that kind of power in the lower weight classes. Only Demetrius and Deiveson have ever KO'd Benavidez. Then again, there always at some point comes the point where the wheels fall off cause this is not an old man's sport (with some exceptions).

Anyway even if Joe's chin is completely gone, Askarov is one of the few top-level match-ups that might still be winnable for him. Askarov doesn't have great power or striking in general, he is just someone who likes to relentlessly pursue you and take you down. It's a great way to grind out decisions. 

In that kind of fight, Benavidez ought to do well, but Askarov decisioned a good grapplers in Pantoja and Elliott last time around and had a draw with Moreno. He is just tough guy to deal with. I guess if people surmise, like I surmised, that Benavidez is shot and he is a big underdog, then I will bet on him, cause really he should be pretty much 50/50 to win a grappling match against Askarov which perhaps questionable chin tilting it ever so slightly to Askarov's favor.

Rogerio Bontorin vs. Kai Kara-France

Should be a pretty close fight on paper, but stylistically tough perhaps for Kara-France. Kai has the cleaner striking, but Bontorin will probably keep taking him down and perhaps even score a submission. Hard to say cause of course Royval was always gonna give him trouble with his non-stop pressure and crazy volume. Bontorin doesn't come crashing in like that, but still should be able to score some takedowns to win rounds.

Kai doesn't have enough power to really limit the forward pressure so that makes me hesitant to pick him, still both guys have ways to win this. Ehh, guess I will go for Kai.

Prediction: Kai Kara-France

Confidence in winner: 2

Tim Elliott vs. Jordan Espinosa

Think it's fair to say Espinosa has the skill advantage here, but Elliott tends to win fights on volume like he did against Benoit. Elliott is definitely getting up there in age and fading, and with less friendly judges could be having 1-5 record in his last 6 fights.

Still, with Espinosa not being so powerful that I really worry for Elliott's chin, this is another very winnable match-up for him. If anything, Espinosa only has one way to win this - keep it standing and keep it very technical all through the three rounds. Easier said than done against someone like Elliott who gets on your face and keeps going all night. Espinosa has had problems with submission grapplers before.

Only worry for Elliott then is running to a hard counter or gassing out himself if he needs to wrestle nonstop and doesn't manage to keep it on the ground. I also have reservations of Elliott's age, like it seems like the signs are there that the wheels will just fall off one night, interesting to see if it is tonight.

Prediction: Tim Elliott

Confidence in winner: 3

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Carlos Ulberg

Can't recall in recent years 3-0 fighter getting an UFC debut already. Kennedy had a rough fight with Stocic last time around, but that was all the way back in 2019, before I even started doing these previews. He is a young fighter with good physical properties, so he might come out looking incredible, or he might be having some ring rust. Even without ring rust he does seem a little slow starter, which is something Ulberg will be looking to expose - he took Bruno Oliveira out of there in his last fight in just over 2 minutes.

Ulberg is obviously very explosive and athletic specimen, and I would say he has sizable skill advantage on the feet, but Nzechukwu can just make this fight ugly and has more range and size. So all in all I think he can win this by wearing out Ulberg with constant pressure. Expect him to have to take some shots on the way to that victory. I still think it's unlikely Ulberg KOs a man of that size. 

Lot of uncertainties on picking the either guy, but I would expect Nzechukwu to be a sizeable favorite here considering he is much more of a proven commodity. Still Ulberg is very fast and powerful, can land a hard shot and finish the fight, so I would play him as a big dog, but as said, don't think it is overall very likely. Majority of the time I expect Nzechukwu to win an ugly decision here.

Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews

I think Brady is the real deal, but he will eventually lose his perfect record regardless. Don't know if this will be the time for that though, cause I think he has just Matthews covered everywhere, even if it is a very even match-up. Little advantages in every range make it seemingly a big advantage but I do feel like this will go to a close decision a lot of time as a low-volume kickboxing match. Think the wrestling of the two guys pretty much cancels each other out, though a takedown or two might flip a round or two as well.

All in all I would say it's not likely to be a finish here as both are pretty fundamentally sound and don't engage in crazy wars. I would say Brady probably has a grappling advantage, it's been a long time since Matthews submitted anyone. 

I wouldn't bet on Brady with the available odds if I was serious about making money, but I will pick him as a degenerate as Matthews really only squeezes tight decisions out of here small percentage of the time. 

Prediction: Sean Brady

Confidence in winner: 2

Livinha Souza vs. Amanda Lemos

Bottom-tier women's MMA, yay. Well guess it's more of middle-tier, anyway, given both have multiple UFC victories already, but I digress.

Souza needs to get this on the mat urgently, cause Lemos hits hard and is very competent fighter in the stand-up, however does not have much footwork to avoid the clinch. If Souza doesn't pursue the takedown hard, I could see her getting finished quick here, but she definitely has a path to victory via ugly clinch fight or scoring takedowns.

If the odds are lopsided, Souza is playable here, cause I do think she will be controlling the position for lot of the fight, I am just not at all convinced that she will do enough win rounds. This might be very similar to Lemos' fight against Inoue that she loses most of the the minutes on the fence, but hard blows landed on the feet ultimately get her the rounds. Lemos is also much more likely to get a finish here.

Prediction: Amanda Lemos

Confidence in winner: 4

Uros Medic vs. Aalon Cruz

Looks pretty interesting fight, with both guys being so good kickers, but I think Medic has a big power and boxing advantage here. Cruz likes to circle and throw lot of volume of kicks, but with small cage and similarly powerful guy as in the last fight, it seems likely he might get caught with something. Medic also likes to really dig those leg kicks in. 

There is legit questions about Medic's gas tank given he has never been extended, but I don't know if Cruz will be the type of guy to extend him. So I figure it will be a fun fight on the feet, but one in which Medic has a big advantage. Medic is a bigger guy, despite being the one at significant reach distadvantage.

Small X factor for this fight is whether Cruz could impose some wrestling, but he hasn't really been much of a wrestler and only initiated wrestling against Carlyle cause he got hurt. But yea outside the possible cardio and wrestling defence questions, I think Medic will get this and he will finish it fast.

Prediction: Uros Medic

Confidence in winner: 3

Mario Bautista vs. Trevin Jones

Trevin Jones toughed out a bad beating to get a comeback victory against Timur Valiev, but unfortunately for him the win was eventually turned to NC because of him injecting marijuanas. I guess you have to be impressed by the performance anyway, for Valiev is a really tough guy to debut against on short notice. Getting thoroughly overwhelmed for most of the match does not look so bad in that context, especially since he managed to catch Valiev.

This time around you can expect Jones to put on a better showing, and opposition is a bit easier too. Bautista is not some overwhelming guy who keeps at your face - sure he does like to put pressure too, but it is more cautious and calculated pressure. Bautista doesn't have crazy power, getting the KO last time around was more down to Johns dipping his head and leaving the opening for the flying knee. 

It's hard to say how powerful Jones exactly is. Sure, he did KO Valiev, but how much of that was through to Valiev having been tired since the first round barrage? Truth is Jones only has two KOs in his record, so you can't look at this fight and think he is gonna be winning this via KO a lot of the time.

Bautista is really hard to catch clean anyway, so I think he simply outpoints Jones a lot of the time here.

Prediction: Mario Bautista

Confidence in winner: 3