UFC 261 Preview & Predictions

UFC 261 has three excellent title fights up top, but most of the card is a regionals extravaganza.

Main Event: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal

Nope, I am not gonna fall into this trap again. Perhaps partially on emotion, partially on false belief that Jorge had actually been training, last time I predicted Jorge to win, only to see him getting foot stomped to an UD. That same thing is gonna happen again. Don't get me wrong, Jorge's chance definitely is above zero, after all even Burns had Kamaru hurt, but he pretty much needs a finish, Kamaru will get at least three rounds simply with clinch control.

So basically my point is that we have seen how this plays out, nothing has changed except Jorge is bit older and bit more out of his prime. I guess he has a full camp now, but I don't see it making much of a difference, Jorge is still gonna fade as the fight goes on cause Usman puts a pace on people.

Prediction: Kamaru Usman

Confidence in winner: 4

Co-Main Event: Weili Zhang vs. Rose Namajunas

Zhang has distinct power advantage here, also probably grappling advantage, walks forward like a terminator and is able to absorb everything... so I must be letting my personal biases affect me to even be considering Rose here. Still, you wanna bet against Trevor Wittman? 

Obviously Rose played the matador to the more powerful girl already against Andrade, but Zhang is a whole different level beast when it comes to skill and actually having the frame to be a champ in this division. Rose is built like a stringbean so seems to always be at a power disadvantage.

All in all my prediction is that Zhang will get 1-2 rounds via top control and probably hurt Rose at some point too. On the other hand, Rose probably has 1-2 rounds where she just classes Zhang on the feet. So all in all, a split decision incoming? It's somewhere between 60/40 and 70/30 for Zhang for me. Think there is some outside chance of Rose subbing Zhang if they hang out a lot in the grappling. Would you bet on a girl who has never been subbed to get submitted though? Yeah I don't think so. 

Honestly there is still lot of unknowns still. Who has Zhang beaten really? Stubby Brazilian girl who stubbornly kept charging into her shots even though she got hurt, and a close decision with a pure striking specialist - not saying she isn't deserving champ, but she has not been tested against all kinds of styles at a very high level.. She is facing Rose now who outstruck Joanna but is also a more complete martial artist - which might in a way make her an easier fight if she is more willing to get taken down. Still Rose probably is the best grappler she has faced so far. I don't know, I think I might just take a small punt on Rose if she has big odds, but if its closer to even money, I will go for Zhang, all in all the likelihood is on her side.

It's pretty close, eh, guess I will punt a little bit on Rose.

Prediction: Rose Namajunas

Confidence in winner: 2

Third Title Fight: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Andrade

I really wanna pick Jessica to win with some slam or KO, and I do think she has paths to victory here, but large part of her winning percentage is finishing Valentina... and I don't really think that is all that likely. After all, this is a woman who went twice the distance against Amanda Nunes. Andrade has rare power for 115 or 125, but she isn't more powerful than Nunes.

Still, if that Maia fight taught us anything, it's that Valentina can be bullied in the clinch. I expect that to be only range Andrade has a chance here outside of catching Valentina with a hard shot. Still either way I do think that however long the fight goes on, it will the most uncomfortable we have seen Valentina. That's what Jessica always brings to the table, aggression, power and toughness. 

That's what also makes it likely though that this won't go the distance. It's really the ideal match-up for Valentina to have someone she can countershot coming in, particularly a fighter who is much shorter than her. Easier to land that home run headkick.

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko

Confidence in winner: 4

Chris Weidman vs. Uriah Hall

Usually I tape at least the fighters latest fights, but this time I can't be bothered to be watching two god awful, boring fights that these two guys in their last outings. So this pick is more based on impressions.

It's not that complicated fight to analyze anyway. Hall is a fighter with two sides, sometimes showing up as a softie who doesn't wanna hurt you, sometimes being ferocious striker. Either way, he will have problem to keep it on the feet here. It doesn't take that much to knock Weidman out these days though.

Weidman is 2-5 in his last 7, and all those losses were KOs. That's not a great look at all, but to be fair he has fought killers only during that run. He finally got a drop in competition last time to face Akhmedov and thus made it to the decision. Hardly a convincing win though, but if he can do that same this time, he will beat Hall.

I guess I would still line Hall as a considerably big favorite? His takedown defence has improved and he still is a powerful counter-striker if he gets going. He might get taken down in each round, but they all start standing so he will have opportunities to find Weidman's pulverized chin. I also don't see Weidman finishing this. If Antonio Carlos Jr. didn't sub Hall, I doubt Weidman will either.

Either way not a very confident pick, you can't rely on either fighter at this point of their careers. I do think that Weidman wins a decision most of the time here if it goes to that, but I just don't trust on him to make it that far.

Prediction: Uriah Hall

Confidence in winner: 2

Anthony Smith vs. Jimmy Crute

Outside of - in hindsight - a freak submission loss to Misha Cirkunov, Crute's run in MMA has been pretty much perfect. His last three wins were all finishes in the first round, but like 3rd round finish against Craig shows, he can still keep going if the fight goes deep. 

While Smith went the distance with the GOAT, he has still been KOd already 9 times on his career, and that does not bode well with a guy as powerful as Crute. 

I dunno, I think they gonna stand and trade until one guy falls. I mean Crute has a takedown game, but he ought to learn something from Clark losing to Smith or his own loss to Cirkunov that his best chance to win is on the feet, but then again I don't see him getting subbed by Smith as easily as Clark did. 

All in all I think Crute has this very high percentage of the time, but nonetheless it ought to be a good test for the prospect. Not so sure if he is good play though, I have to see the odds. Smith has some ways to win it, I mean if it goes the distance its not unreasonable to think there is two close enough rounds to make it anyone's decision, and Smith obviously showed last time he is a dangerous grappler. Guys who keep smashing 1st round KOs tend to get overrated so I would imagine Crute is not such a good value here, even if Smith is a sort of a step up in competition.

Prediction: Jimmy Crute

Confidence in winner: 3

Alex Oliveira vs. Randy Brown

Good old Cowboy Oliveira, we know exactly what he brings to the table, good power, fleet-footed movement, great rangy strikes... but not so good of a gas tank. Still, he feasts on lower level UFC competition, while falling short against the more competent fighters. Feels like he has been in UFC forever, but the guy is still only 33. 

This is a rare case where Oliveira gets the short stick of the reach equation. Brown fights well behind his jab, using his reach, but he doesn't move as well as Oliveira and I also don't think he is as durable. Luque laid out the blueprint on how Brown can be outstruck, but I still don't think Oliveira will implement that gameplan. Either way, I still think Oliveira will edge this fight, but nonetheless it ought to be a very close decision.

Prediction: Alex Oliveira

Confidence in winner: 2

Dwight Grant vs. Stefan Sekulic

What's with all these fighters coming out of the woodwork after 3-5 years away lately? It's obviously gonna be unreliable pick since we haven't seen Sekulic in so long, but he was obviously completely blown out of the water by Emeev, and Grant is a dangerous guy to face after such a long layoff.

Grant also did well against D-Rod until punching himself out and gassing, after which he was promptly KOd. It wasn't a gas tank issue as Grant has seen plenty of decisions in his career, purely an energy management issue for throwing too much shit in too short time. 

We bet on ring rust here.

Prediction: Dwight Grant

Confidence in winner: 3

Brendan Allen vs. Karl Robertson

Allen got exposed pretty bad against Strickland. He did have his moments in the stand-up, but failing to take the fight to the ground resulted in the end pretty much a massacre. 

Vettori finished Robertson on the ground last time around, so this ought to be a very winnable match-up for Allen. That is Allen's bread and butter, taking it to the ground and submitting you, so the style definitely does favor him if Strickland fight did not take too much out of his chin. I would expect Robertson to test that chin a few times though before the fight hits the ground.

Either way looking at Robertson's record it is clear he has always struggled with grapplers. Only sort of a grappler he beat was Wellington Turman, and even in that fight he only squaked a split decision. Pretty strongly on Allen here.

Prediction: Brendan Allen

Confidence in winner: 4

Tristan Connolly vs. Pat Sabatini

Most of the material that I find of Sabatini is grappling competitions so guess this is some kind of sub hunter guy, not much tape though so this will be a low-confidence pick either way. Especially when with Connolly we don't have much info either. Connolly is a post-prime journeyman, but he is tough as nails as evidenced by gutting it out for a win against Pereira and he is a black belt so I don't think he will be easy for Sabatini to submit here.

Still I kinda lean on Sabatini anyway, simply for him being the younger guy. He isn't probably gonna be doing goofy backflips and shit to gas himself out, so even if he can't finish Connolly, I think he might get couple of rounds.

I'm not gonna lay that kind chalk on the line on the newcomer though, let's go for another surprise win for Connolly.

Prediction: Tristan Connolly

Confidence in winner: 1

Danaa Batgerel vs. Kevin Natividad

KOing an aged guy didn't suddenly make a Batgerel big power guy, but certainly he is a decent striker who likes to walk people down. Natividad got KO'd last time around so at least some signs of being chinny are in the air. Still in the end it is Natividad out of these guys with the more KOs. 

Either way it's not a good look when Miles Johns outstrikes you, especially when it was that lead hand that was catching Natividad coming in most of the time. That's Batgerel's best weapon and although I don't generally rate him, think he will be good enough to forward pressure Natividad into losing rounds and if not, there is also some chance of a KO given how bad that last loss was - you never know how guys come out after a bad KO.

Prediction: Danaa Batgerel

Confidence in winner: 3

Rodrigo Vargas vs. Zhu Rong 

What's with all these Chinese guys on this event? Zhu Rong has impressive ten fight winning streak, even more impressive that all but one of those are finishes, but you can't really put too much stock on what has been done on the Chinese scene. Rodrigo Vargas was looking quite dominant in his last fight against Brok Weaver, before ill-adviced knee on a downed opponent got him an immediate DQ loss. Not the highest fight IQ there, but the guy obviously loves to scrap, has some power and is tough, so this ought to not be an easy fight for Zhu Rong.

It's obviously gonna be low reliability prediction because of lack of info, particularly for Rong, but I do feel like Vargas will come out like a house on fire and either get Rong out of there quick or dominate R1. If Rong makes it out of first round, things get interesting, but I can see it being a close decision anyway because Vargas probably has a grappling advantage, even if he fades.

Prediction: Rodrigo Vargas

Confidence in winner: 2

Jeff Molina vs. Qileng Aori 

This Chinese guy seems tough and powerful but kinda sloppy. Actually somewhat similar to the guy Molina faced in the contender series. Contender guys have had it rough but I guess this is one time where I think he has a decent chance. Molina doesn't get hit clean a lot and has good range. I think he will probably lose first round but tough it out and beat Aori in later rounds. For sure guys like Aori are ones to fade at UFC level, but at the same time when you got that base level of toughness, when you add some skill to it you can take it really far.

Prediction: Jeff Molina 

Confidence in winner: 3

Ariane Carnelossi vs. Na Liang 

Carnelossi is a tough scrapper, but in her UFC debut she was vastly undersized against Angela Hill, and Hill gave her such a bad beating that it's taken her nearly two years to fight again. She is facing an UFC debutant Na Liang who seems to be some sort of a arm bar specialist who has faced Liana Jojua and Mariya Agapova in regionals before out of UFC level competition.

As much as Carnelossi is jacked, she is at serious reach advantage here once again. Na Liang seems really aggressive in her grappling approach, but there is lot of unknowns. Carnelossi didn't have to defend a lot of takedowns against Hill, but here for sure she has to. I dunno, I just like grapplers in these straight up style match-ups, particularly for women. I mean Carnelossi is about as powerful of a 115er that you can get at this level, and you still can't rely on her to get a KO if she does start teeing off on Liang.

Think Liang will score an early takedown though and score a sub, but it would be interesting to see if Carnelossi can extend the fight and stand-up exchanges, cause her stalking style was starting to take its toll even on Hill, let alone a lower level fighter that isn't used to striking so much. Still, it's a very incomplete information match-up, so I will go by very simplistic analysis that grapplers usually beat strikers and that Carnelossi is simply too undersized.

Prediction: Na Liang 

Confidence in winner: 2