UFC on ABC 2 Post-Fight Analysis

UFC on ABC 2 was a pretty exciting event. Lots of good fights especially early on. Fight was in middle of the night for me but the good action helped me stay awake through it, and the pacing of the fights was pleasant - never had to wait too long for the next fight. Not to mention I had a winning night for a change too.

Main Card

So did Holland manage to address his lack of takedown defence issues in three weeks time? Well he didn't, but he certainly showed that he could have had that fight if he could have defended even half of the grappling Vettori did. Late on Holland had Vettori hurt and comfortably outstruck Vettori for most of the first round.

It was clear though that his conditioning wasn't all there, don't know if he had trained much in between this and the Brunson fight, but regardless the grueling pace did a number on him pretty fast. It eventually made Vettori fade too and in the final round it seemed that Holland was the fresher guy. Still, when you can't avoid guy grabbing hold of you, you are bound to end up on your ass repeatedly.

The co-main event was a razor thin fight between two solid featherweight prospects. The fight had the winner I predicted, but whereas I expected Allen to be technical and just win on volume and make Yusuff tire as the fight goes on, it was Yusuff who was technical only to get caught with some powershots that swung the 1st and 2nd round to Arnold's favor. In the final round it was Yusuff trying to push forward and Allen trying to survive for having expended the gas tank already.

Not many guys have finished Sam Alvey, but Julian Marquez managed to pull it off. Not without some adversity though, cause both guys spent most of the fight in the pocket exchanging powershots and Marquez was rocked couple of times too. It looks like Alvey's renowned durability is finally starting to fall off a cliff.

Another guy whose durability is fading is Mike Perry. Perry has never been known for his defence, but it certainly seems to have regressed cause D-Rod just kept popping his head back with solid shots all through the fight and Perry just couldn't get out of the way of anything or even consistently counter. 

It's not just durability issue though, it just seems like the same guy isn't there any more. Apparently Perry has one fight left on his contract and I don't see him ever getting renewed, so it's important for him to go out with a better performance than this so he at least has some leverage negotiating with the lesser promotions. Hope he can get a fat contract for the sake of his family, but I think Perry as a somewhat high level fighter is done. 

Take nothing away from D-Rod though, he kept it steady, very technical and patient and simply poured on the volume, breaking Perry's nose in the process. Perry needs to learn some basic defence but after being already a lifelong fighter, can you really expect an old dog to learn new tricks? Perry should be just hitting his prime, but after all the wars and miles on him, he clearly is already past it.

In between the two fights there was Mackenzie Dern making quick work of Nina Nunes. Nunes was always a questionmark after a long lay-off, and the fight wasn't long enough to make much conclusions off of, but I think it was more Dern's improvement than Nunes looking rusty. Good entry with some powershots, very smooth takedown and after that it was just a formality, Dern has massive advantage over most girls on the ground. Fight against Tatiana Suarez would be hella interesting, maybe it happens down the line for title, both girls are so talented.

Prelims

Joe Solecki and Jim Miller had the biggest snoozer on the card. Miller top controlled for the first round, then his age started to show and Solecki managed to top control the latter rounds as Miller fatigued. Not much to say, they spent 15 minutes in a stalemate on the ground.

Scott Holtzman was one of my more speculative picks of the night, and turned out once again that I should have faded the aging guy. Holtzman still looks as much of a physical specimen he always did, but the mileage is showing on his chin as Gamrot, who isn't the biggest power guy, managed to put him out. Back-to-back KOs, perhaps time to retire? Neither Dariush or Gamrot are known as big KO guys so it's not a good look, both are more grapplers than anything.

John Makdessi and Ignacio Bahamondes put on a masterful fight. I mean credit should go to Makdessi for making up for the massive reach disadvantage and slipping, parrying and blocking shots all through the fight while stinging Bahamondes with hard counters. Credit to Bahamondes too - after being badly hurt in the first and getting constantly powershotted on the counter, the kid never stopped trying to overwhelm Makdessi with constant pressure and volume. 

Ultimately it ended with two razor thin rounds where Bahamondes' volume was almost able to cancel out Makdessi's technical superiority. Still, you can't really score it for the guy when his face looks like Rocky's face in the end. Respect for both guys, hope they match-up Bahamondes with some mediocre Contender alumni for next few fights, don't wanna see the guy get into too many wars this young.

I shouldn't have overcommitted to a high volume heavyweight fight. Someone summed De Castro vs. Danho as high-variance fight two heavy lumps, and that's probably accurate assessment. To be fair Danho looked much better than I expected, but the fight also didn't go so deep that you could really tell if he would have been in trouble later on. That's heavyweights for you, both can kill each other at any moment.

Jack Shore and Hunter Azure had a very close fight, lot of grappling transitions where Shore looked able to match Azure whom some people obviously rated above Shore in wrestling. It was tight in all ranges, but Shore deserving winner in the end.

It looked like Jordan Griffin used his experience to pull off an ugly decision win after rough start to the fight with Luis Saldana, but the judges unanimously disagreed. Felt kind of a robbery, but I can understand the case of saying Saldana won the first round cause he was dominating the striking early. Either way Griffin fucked up by presuming he had a lead to sit on in the third round. Obviously he was fatigued but what he had been doing up to that point had been working, so he should have dug deep and really tried to make sure to get that round too and decision would have been clear. Still, wouldn't change my pick in hindsight.

Da Un Jung completely exposed gaping holes William Knight's game. Big muscles don't mean anything if you can't defend a simple trip despite it being used over and over again and you can't get back up. Solid performance and good fight IQ from Jung, he really bloodied Knight up on the ground.

I expected Impa Kasanganay to walk over the smaller man in Sasha Palatnikov, but to Palatnikov's credit he did enough to at least make me worry in the early going. He was making Impa work so I had my concern's on how his cardio would fare. In the end Impa got his submission in the 2nd round and Impa did not have to really draw too deep into his gas tank.

My picks

I got 7 out of 13 right, which isn't bad considering how many underdogs I was on. Best pick was Arnold Allen, though it was a close fight, still glad to get one of my big bets right. Think I am even happier about the D-Rod pick - though sad to be right about old Perry just not being there any more. 

Worst pick... well it wasn't so much an awful pick, it's just betting big on a high-variance, low-level heavyweight fight that bothers me about my De Castro bet. I would still pick him if I could pick again, but at a smaller stake. Sometimes it's not about what you win, it's about what you don't lose.

Aside that, there wasn't many terrible picks. Maybe Nunes off of a long layoff was something that could have been predicted beforehand, but other wrong picks I don't mind - Holland was a small punt and it certainly wasn't terrible bet given the odds and given how he did give some trouble to Vettori, Holtzman same thing, just a small poke and could have been a close decision if he still had his old durability. Alvey vs Marquez had those moments where it could have gone either way if right shot lands, and the whole Griffin thing was just a tough break from judging.

I think my reads all in all were alright so I think I am gaining a little confidence going into the next weekend. It's been a while since my last back-to-back winning events, maybe it's time for my luck to finally change.