UFC on ABC 2 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland

My initial thought is that Vettori steamrolls here, but it's not that simple really, isn't it. I am really hesitant to pick Holland after how embarrassing he looked last time around, but Vettori is not the wrestler Brunson is. Still, he is competent in grappling too so I wouldn't be surprised if he holds Holland down for a round or two. At the same time I certainly don't believe we are gonna see a similar top control domination as we did in Holland's last performance. 

Vettori has the sharper hands, but is that gonna matter as much when Holland has seven inches of reach advantage here. So I think if this stays on the striking range, Holland is actually gonna be comfortably dominating this match here. Vettori is tough and durable, but he has to be willing to work the clinch and takedowns here to beat Holland.

As much as that last performance showed Holland is fish out of water on the ground, it has only been shown against very high level grapplers. As said, Vettori isn't bad, but is he that good that he can regularly ground Holland, especially when he said himself that he would beat Holland by striking? I don't know.

At these odds, I feel like I have to take a punt on Holland. KO or sub seems unlikely, though guess a small chance of something like that always exists, but Holland just might squeeze a decision outstriking Vettori for three rounds. Either way, this is only a small bet.

Prediction: Kevin Holland

Confidence in winner: 1

Co-Main Event: Sodiq Yusuff vs. Arnold Allen

Two highly-touted prospects with nearly perfect records. Exciting fight on paper, but someone is gonna get another imperfection to their record. Allen got the technique and volume, Yusuff the power. You know how I feel about match-ups like that. I'm gonna go for the technique all day.

Besides Yusuff's chance to get a KO here is pretty slim, considering Allen has never been KO'd in his 20 fight amateur and pro career combined. He moves well and is defensively solid, so it's hard to catch him clean. Especially if Allen mixes in some grappling it will open up more holes in Yusuff's striking defence and help gas him out a little faster.

Yusuff obviously has higher finishing upside, but it's tough for him to get even two rounds here for a decision. Still, it's a close fight in the end, but more often than not Arnold will win this.

Prediction: Arnold Allen

Confidence in winner: 4

Sam Alvey vs. Julian Marquez

Alvey is tough, good anti-wrestler and hits hard. Marquez is also pretty tough and a willing striker, but was pretty much beaten for 3 rounds by Maki Pitolo only to snatch up a late submission. I don't see Marquez catching a finish here against Alvey, but Alvey is a slow starter so he is definitely losing first round if he doesn't score a KO. 

Marques has never won a decision so perhaps it will be another similar fight to Alvey's last couple of fights, where we end up with one clear round each and one close round for a funky split decision.

Prediction: Sam Alvey

Confidence in winner: 3

Nina Nunes vs. Mackenzie Dern

Mackenzie is fucked when she can't get people down. Ansaroff should be able to keep it standing enough to snatch couple of rounds, but ring rust makes it possible that she isn't the same fighter any more. Particularly when she is up there in age. Either way, ought to be a good challenge for Dern, I am taking Ansaroff here cause she is good enough of a grappler to survive and should have beating of Dern everywhere else, unless Mackenzie has improved a ton.

Prediction: Nina Nunes

Confidence in winner: 2

Mike Perry vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Perry is a headcase, and always was, which is why I still thought he would perform just fine against Tim Means. Well he really didn't. I think Perry has definitely regressed lately. D-Rod is not the greatest fighter either, but he has good stand-up and plenty of volume, he should be able to beat Perry that is no longer the same fighter he was before.

Obviously if the normal Perry shows up, he will just maul D-Rod, but I wouldn't be betting on that.

Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez

Confidence in winner: 2

Jim Miller vs. Joe Solecki

I dunno, tough fight to make a pick on. Miller is always so tempting as an underdog, but youth is on Solecki's side here. Miller definitely has a way to win by snapping up a submission or even getting a KO as Solecki is not the most durable guy, but his defence standing up seems solid. With Miller being up in age, I suppose Solecki should push the pace and go for a more striking approach, but he is also more of a grappling specialist. 

I guess Solecki will win by top controlling 2-3 rounds? I don't know, but I am betting on youth here even if I don't particularly think this is a great match-up for him.

Prediction: Joe Solecki

Confidence in winner: 2

Scott Holtzman vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Holtzman got KOd last time but his chin ought to still be fine despite the age, certainly you'd think it will hold up against Gamrot who isn't the biggest powerpuncher. Gamrot moves well but doesn't actually throw much, relies kinda on managing to keep people down to win fights. So all in all this looks like it's gonna be a funky decision in the end, cause Holtzman is a good anti-wrestler. 

Still, the fact that Holtzman is in his advancing years and Gamrot approaching his prime makes me lean on Gamrot. However I would guess the line is skewed, making Gamrot unplayable here.

So guess we take a small punt on Holtzman to squeak a tight decision.

Prediction: Scott Holtzman

Confidence in winner: 1

John Makdessi vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Surely we will see John Makdessi as a grappler here? Bahamondes looked good in Contender, but was fighting a short fat dude who had no business to be there with him, so I would think Makdessi will be a tough opponent, but for sure he isn't gonna win this if he doesn't force himself into the pocket to make up for all the reach he gives up.

So in that regard would make perfect sense for Makdessi to pursue takedowns here. It is not something he traditionally goes for a lot though. As much as I don't think skill-for-skill Makdessi is any worse than Bahamondes on the feet, he just has low output and that reach advantage being so big makes this problematic for him. If the fight looks anything like the Trinaldo fight did, Bahamondes will have easy time here.

Still, just for all the experience advantage Makdessi has, he might be playable here as an underdog. The line is very wide considering he is UFC vet and Bahamondes beat a can in Contender series.

Prediction: John Makdessi

Confidence in winner: 2

Yorgan De Castro vs. Jarjis Danho

Yay, low-level heavyweight action. After KOing Tafa, De Castro's going in the UFC has been a little rough, with back-to-back decision losses. He faces a guy who I thought was a newcomer, but he has actually been fighting in UFC, just his last fight was in 2016. So I have seen it since I haven't missed an event since 2015, I just don't remember he exists cause he has been on the shelf for so many years. Don't know what's the story with that, but the guy is 37 and has only 6 pro fights so that's not exactly a great look all in all.

Also Danho looked awful in his last fight. Yorgan De Castro might be just another struggling Contender fighter in the UFC, but he is much better fighter than Chris Colombo was five years ago, and Colombo absolutely dominated Danho for 2nd and 3rd round. If Danho's conditioning is still as bad, I doubt this one goes to decision. So basically Danho has to get De Castro out of there in the first, which is always possible in the heavyweights, however if Tafa and Hardy could not get De Castro out of there, I highly doubt Jarjis Danho will at this point either.

Besides, the ring rust after so many years away will be epic. Basically this is about as much of a lock as heavyweight fights will ever be.

Prediction: Yorgan De Castro

Confidence in winner: 5

Jack Shore vs. Hunter Azure

It's an interesting fight. Shore is unbeaten, but Azure probably is a good challenge for him. Shore's game is all wrestling, drag you down and take your back to choke your out. Azure is a well-rounded fighter with very solid wrestling base so he should be able to stop the wrestling attempts to some extent and test Shore's striking more.

Still, the feeling is the unbeaten prospect will stay unbeaten by just grinding with all the wrestling to either a late stoppage or to a close decision. I do think there is decent chance Azure snaps up a round, but I highly doubt he can snag a decision or really hurt Shore. It's not completely in the realms of impossibility either, as Azure strikes well and has connected with some hard shots before.

Prediction: Jack Shore

Confidence in winner: 3

Luis Saldana vs. Jordan Griffin

Saldana is kind of similar to Griffin's last opponent, though guess Saldana doesn't grapple as much and doesn't really put out as much volume as Zalal. He is very skillful striker though and manages distance well.

Griffin's path to victory seems to be through grappling here, but that is concerning cause he doesn't really have gas tank to grapple much.

It's tough fight to predict cause Saldana is unproven and has kind of a rough record, but looked polished in his Contender fight. That being said, it's not hard to look polished when the opponent doesn't really bring the fight to you. Kinda wanna pick Griffin here as the more seasoned guy, but he has lost to pretty much anyone good he has fought so I wouldn't wanna rely on him either.

Guess I would line Saldana as a small favorite here, but Griffin is worth a punt if the line is wide. Obviously if it's wide either way, that makes it a clearer pick.

Prediction: Jordan Griffin

Confidence in winner: 2

Da Un Jung vs. William Knight

Jung is a long striker with decent straight punches and good power. Knight is even more of a power house, but a short guy for the division. He has kind of a low output and Jung will put the pressure on him and pop him with straight shots, so he needs to either impose his wrestling on Jung or crack him with something powerful.

Definitely see Jung winning minutes as they stand in the distance, however Knight might pursue clinching to work those takedowns in. In his last fight there was lot of clinching and despite his imposing build, he did not gas out. So while I do thing Jung wins minutes on the feet, I feel like Knight might be able to kinda ragdoll Jung in the clinch and win minutes there.

Still Jung is no slouch either in the grappling department and can be dangerous even in clinching range with his knees and elbows. I think Knight's power can be an equalizer here, but at the same time it's been getting him out of unnecessary trouble he sometimes puts himself in, and Jung just might be good enough to expose him here.

Prediction: Da Un Jung

Confidence in winner: 3

Impa Kasanganay vs. Sasha Palatnikov

Classic "peripherally UFC level match-up". Though you could argue Palatnikov really isn't good enough to be here. He looked terrible on tape, had a rough first round, and only beat Cosce cause he had never been taken out of first round before.

Impa on the other hand has the potential to become a legit UFC fighter and has gone the distance now four times in a row before getting stopped by Buckley.

Not to mention Palatnikov is also the smaller man here. Expecting a very wide line here, but unlike against Cosce where there was a hindsight path to victory for Palatnikov, I don't see it here. Only way he wins is if "something crazy MMA shit" happens.

Prediction: Impa Kasaganay 

Confidence in winner: 5