UFC on ESPN 22 Preview & Predictions

 Main Event: Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is another one of those guys whose fights are kinda hard to predict. With his height it was no wonder that Till and Hermansson got the better of him, but he also went to absolute war with Adesanya, still being perhaps the toughest challenge Israel has had in the middleweight. Facing Whittaker here he faces a fellow former welterweight, so in terms of stature it is a fairer match-up.

Despite that, I think Kelvin will run into familiar problems. Whittaker might not be as tall and big as Kelvin's previous opponents have been, but he uses his range well and moves very well. Kelvin's best advantage is his boxing, and I think he will struggle to keep it in the boxing range against Whittaker, who will pop him with jab and kicks and keep circling. Kelvin's wrestling is a bit of an X factor, but usually Whittaker has fared well against wrestlers.

Another questionmark is Whittaker's chin, but the guy just fought Till and Cannonier and only got rocked by the latter in 8 rounds, so I doubt Kelvin will finish him.

Prediction: Robert Whittaker

Confidence in winner: 4

Co-Main Event: Jeremy Stephens vs. Drakkar Klose

It's weird to think Stephens hasn't got a win since early 2018, considering he is still a very dangerous fighter. Even against Kattar who is one of the better fighter of the divisions last time around he looked competitive before getting finished. Sure, he is getting up there in age and miles, but Klose should be bit of a lower level match-up and entirely winnable matchup for Stephens.

Especially considering Klose got finished last time around by Dariush. It's been an over year since that fight though, so one can't expect any after effects on the guy's durability. Klose is also at the tail end of his own prime, so if ever he needed a big name win to make it anywhere in his career, it's now.

I figure it will be a very close fight. Stephens probably takes the first round, but latter two ones will be tight as Klose tends to improve as fights go on, and Stephens is up therein age and mileage. Still, leaning on Stephens getting this, especially if he comes out fighting like he did against Kattar.

Prediction: Jeremy Stephens

Confidence in winner: 3

Andrei Arlovski vs. Chase Sherman

When do we start fading Arlovski? When do the miles and the age finally become an issue? Sherman isn't the highest level competition, but guy does pack a punch and isn't exactly regional. More importantly, he is hitting his prime, whereas Arlovski has been past it for a while. Arlovski of course tends to get overlooked because of his age and has been very good bet because of that in his recent matches. I just don't know, I can't shake a feeling that it's getting less and less reliable to bet on him, especially against a guy who has 14 KOs out of 15 wins and has gotten his last four opponents out of there in under 6 minutes.

Yeah, he hasn't been fighting monsters like Arlovski, but it does count for something. On the other hand, Aspinall moves better, is faster and less hittable, and he could not get Arlovski out of there with punches and ate some punches himself.

So I guess I am gonna go to the well one too many times?

Prediction: Andrei Arlovski

Confidence in winner: 2

Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Jacob Malkoun

Malkoun doesn't seem very good to me, but Alhassan is problematic cause if he doesn't kill you in the 1st, get completely gasses and loses 2 rounds to 1. 

Alhassan also probably lost his chin in the last fight, but Malkoun doesn't even seem to have that much chin, and you definitely need a solid chin to make it out of the first round with Alhassan. So guess we go hoping for a quick KO from Alhassan, if not then sweating if Alhassan could once in his lifetime win a second round.

Prediction: Abdul Razak Alhassan

Confidence in winner: 2

Luis Pena vs. Alex Munoz

I find Luis Pena fights always so awkward to predict. The guy has skills and obviously crazy length for his weight class, but on the other hand he has only really won the fights that were complete mismatches. Is Munoz fight like that? Eh, I don't know, we really don't have much info on him in recent years. He didn't do that great in his UFC debut, but it was his first fight and Haqparast is hell of an introduction to UFC. 

Pena lost to Worthy by submission, but the fight was basically lost on the feet already which was the reason he pursued the takedown even a little bit recklessly. It's rare to see Pena outhustled on the feet like that.

I do like Munoz in this spot, it's the kind of situation where Munoz is usually value - he looked poor on his debut, but was against a tough opponent so this is a chance to "surprise" everyone. With Pena he has more reach to get through, but Pena also does not hit as hard as Nasrat and his takedown defence is definitely worse. Pena likes to play guard and hunt submissions. Should Munoz avoid that, I think he can top control his way to a decision.

Prediction: Alex Munoz

Confidence in winner: 3

Tracy Cortez vs. Justine Kish

Honestly Kish looked great in her last fight, putting high volume in all through the fight and winning first two rounds solidly. She was probably losing the last round, but was still on her way to a comfortable decision victory until she got caught with a headkick and then subbed immediately after. Nonetheless you should see her as a dangerous fight for Cortez, who is still on an 8 fight winning streak.

I think on the feet Cortez might have some struggles, but she probably packs more punch and is more durable than Kish, however she might have the less volume. She is the better grappler though, so I think Kish will be getting the better of rounds until she gets taken down and that seals the rounds more often than not to Cortez.

Not one that I am most confident of, but I do think Cortez continues her winning streak.

Think with these odds I'm gonna take a little punt on Kish to just hustle to a close decision.

Prediction: Justine Kish

Confidence in winner: 2

Alexander Romanov vs. Juan Espino

I like Romanov but this is a tough match-up for him. Espino has reach over him, is probably better at moving and has stamina edge as well. So in a striking match, I would favor Espino. Espino is also a grappling expert, so he would prove to be tricky even when Romanov can drag him to the ground. Interestingly, it might be Espino who takes Romanov down, and we really haven't seen much of Romanov off his back.

Still, with Espino being 40 I would lean on Romanov having the edge overall. However considering how crushing performances Romanov has put in, I don't expect his odds to be playable here, but if he is just a slight favorite, I would grab him, other than that you gotta play the number with Espino. Espino is more technical guy whereas Romanov is more raw strength and no one has really taught him a lesson yet.

Odds are probably around correct, so I go with my first pick.

Prediction: Alexander Romanov

Confidence in winner: 3

Jessica Penne vs. Lupita Godinez

Wow, that's a blast from the past - Penne last fought in an event headlined by Artem Lobov. She is on a three fight losing skid and has not fought in almost 4 years. So bad run combined with ring rust of epic proportions and her being already 38... It's not really good look. At least they are giving her the best possible chance to win by putting her against a very green fighter with just 5 pro fights.

Penne's last performance wasn't too bad, but she probably lost the fight due to her plodding approach. She simply doesn't put in enough volume to consistently win rounds. As for Godinez, she might be green but she does have some championship fights already under her belt, being LFA champ. 

I don't think Godinez is crazy good, but she does seem to be durable, willing to throw, and having stamina for five rounds. So against ring-rusted, aged Penne that makes me relatively confident to back her.

Prediction: Lupita Godinez

Confidence in winner: 3

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bartosz Fabinski

Kind of a funky match-up, but I am not gonna overthink this. Fabinski isn't great, but he top controls pretty reliably and Meerschaert is always happy to end up on his back, so Fabinski will eat up the rounds. Of course something like Fabinski's last match might happen, but I still think it is more likely that Fabinski just top controls his way to a victory.

That's not even taking into account that GM3 seems to have lost his chin as well so...

Prediction: Bartosz Fabinski

Confidence in winner: 3 

Dakota Bush vs. Austin Hubbard

All of Hubbard's losses are against grappling specialists. So the question is if "hairy bush" is any good as a grappler... Well, sort of, but he definitely doesn't have the credentials of Davi Ramos or Mark Madsen, and he is coming in on a short notice as the smaller man.

So Hubbard will probably maul him similarly to how he did to Rohskopf. Still, outside chance of an early sub for Bush or a flash KO, the guy has decent striking and power to back up his grappling, but if this goes the distance Hubbard is very likely to get two rounds. 

Prediction: Austin Hubbard

Confidence in winner: 3

Tony Gravely vs. Anthony Birchak

I dunno, it's hard to rate Birchak after that poor debut performance. Still, you can't draw too many conclusions off of guy's first UFC outing. At the same time, Birchak's record didn't seem that crazy good entering UFC either, and he is already up there in age. Gravely isn't that great of a striker, but at least has solid fundamentals and is able to get takedowns regularly.

So Birchak basically has to find a submission off his back or rely on Gravely gassing with the wrestling heavy approach. Those are his paths to victory, but more often than not Gravely will get two rounds even when gassing like he did against De Freitas. 

I am more inclined to think it's Birchak that gets worn down more as the damage accumulates from top control.

Prediction: Tony Gravely

Confidence in winner: 4