UFC on ESPN 23 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Dominick Reyes vs. Jiri Prochazka

I feel like Jiri is coming to this fight with a lot of hype, and people kinda aren't appreciating Reyes for the fighter he really is. Sure, Blachowicz kinda exposed him, he was winning the fight even before Reyes got caught. But Reyes wasn't doing bad in that fight, just showed his inexperience getting carried away into trading in the pocket with Blachowicz.

We need to take a moment to appreciate the fact that Reyes is only 14 fights deep into his MMA career. He is fighting at 205 where he was bound to get finished up eventually. That doesn't mean he is suddenly a bad fighter. He still moves well, carries a lot of power and is defensively mostly sound. He is only 31 in a heavy weight class and has already fought a very close fight with the GOAT. All in all, it's unlikely we have even seen the best of Reyes yet.

That being said, we haven't seen the best of Jiri either, cause even though he is much more the experienced fighter with 30 fights under his belt, he is the younger guy by 3 years. He is obviously offensively very potent, and being a little crazy is positive in this sport, however at the very top level he is too hittable I don't expect Reyes to mind the gamesmanship too much. I'd be very surprised if this goes the distance and Reyes is the far more battle-tested one that has been KOd less times in his career. 

Still, Jiri was first guy to put Oezdemir to sleep like that, and obviously Reyes can be KOd like Jan did, but all in all I would say that's more like 30 % and Reyes is still the favorite in my book to win this fight. 

Prediction: Dominick Reyes

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Giga Chikadze vs. Cub Swanson

Fighting cans is an overused expression in MMA and in fight sports in general, lot of guys perceived as cans actually aren't that... Anyway, I digress, for the last guy they pitted Giga against had no business of being there. Sure the guy might beat some regionals but he was just a sacrificial lamb for slaughter to give Giga a KO in UFC. 

Swanson is gonna be a whole different matter. He showed against Pineda last time that while he might be 37, he still has something left in the tank. 

Either way this is a very dangerous match-up for both. Giga isn't the biggest power guy, but with that skill advantage and Swanson being 37, another KO is highly likely as long as they stand, but as they will be grappling like crazy Giga's opportunities will be limited. Swanson is experienced enough and actually an MMA fighter. We saw already in the Emmers fight that someone who mixes takedowns in well will be a problem for Giga.

If Swanson wasn't 37 I would feel very confident picking him here. Historically he is very well-rounded, smart fighter who would keep this on the grappling realm and grind out a win. I'm just concerned about his chin and stamina sustaining a fight that requires him to stay on Giga's face. Still, outside of the number of his age there isn't any reason to be concerned of it, he hasn't been finished since Holloway did back in 2015.

As MMA fighters, these two aren't even close in skill level, but of course there is reasonably good chance Chikadze just finds something and starches Cub. Still, most of the time Cub will grapple the fuck out of him and beat him with either submission or a decision.

Prediction: Cub Swanson

Confidence in winner: 3

Ion Cutelaba vs. Dustin Jacoby

Cutelaba is a tool and took career-altering damage in that unnecessary rematch against a much better fighter in Ankalaev. Despite that, I still think he will have the better of Jacoby who has been finished by worse guys.

For all his flaws, Cutelaba does grapple when the situation asks for it, so I think that even if he finds himself outgunned against Jacoby, he can simply take him down and pound him out of this fight. Hope I am wrong though. I also don't think Grishin is crazy powerful guy, but even he dropped Jacoby. Cutelaba is all power so in any way this doesn't look good for Jacoby. Obviously he still has a way to win by staying in the outside, keeping it technical and to not get caught by anything Cutelaba throws, but I just don't trust him to do that.

Prediction: Ion Cutelaba

Confidence in winner: 3

Sean Strickland vs. Krzysztof Jotko

My first impression of Jotko has been that he is kind of a chinny guy, someone who Strickland might be able to get out of there. Still, Jotko has not actually been KOd in three fights despite fighting pretty powerful guys. Strickland certainly isn't even the most powerful of the bunch, even if he took out Allen in his last fight - but that was more down to the striking skill disparity.

Still I think Sean will look at Jotko's last fight and be very encouraged by the success Anders, much worse striker was having when he was forcing Jotko to stand in pocket. Still I suppose Jotko could score takedowns and outstrike Strickland from distance. All in all I don't feel very confident either way about this match-up think it will be a close fight but I lean on Strickland having the better of it due to him being the more durable guy.

Prediction: Sean Strickland

Confidence in winner: 2

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cody Stamann

This is an interesting fight, with decision/cardio machine Merab facing actually somewhat high level competition in Stamann. Merab has been decisioning everyone with his absolutely insane pace, probably pound for pound best cardio. All of Merab's fights lasted 15 minutes in the UFC, and had Simon not snatched up a last second submission, all of them would have been decisions.

Stamann would actually be in the same boat, he has seen decisions in all but one of his UFC bouts, the fight against Aljo where he got kneebar'd. So I would say there is hardly any chance there is a finish in this fight, but MMA gods have twisted sense of humor, so guess they stand and trade and someone gets stiffened in first 30 seconds. 

Anyway Stamann is probably the better, more skilled fighter. But so was Dodson... the thing about Merab is that his constant pressure and hustle just makes your own game shut down. Stamann has better striking, but not even by the margin Dodson had better striking, and Merab still outstruck Dodson cause he was so worried about the clinch.

Stamann is too willing to get backed up, all I see is Merab easily initiating the clinch and then simply outhustling Stamann there. Stamann is good in the clinch as well, just not as good, he loses in all the key areas for this match which are the stamina, footwork and the clinch. Submission is really the biggest threat for Merab winning fights, and Stamann isn't the biggest sub threat, having not scored one since 2016.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili

Confidence in winner: 4

Poliana Botelho vs. Luana Carolina

Hope Carolina has recovered from that brutal kneebar in her last fight, but to be fair she wasn't much of a fighter to begin with. Guess in pure Muay Thai match-up she could give run for their money to some UFC fighters, but she doesn't have much of a takedown defence. 

I think Botelho prefers to strike though, so that works on Carolina's favor. Still, I think Botelho is the better striker and certainly has much more power, and if her camp is smart at all they have been grinding some offensive wrestling too - obviously not to change her style completely but, just to sprinkle takedowns after some striking exchanges to seal rounds if they are close on the feet.

All in all expect Botelho to win pretty comfortably, she is better at all ranges, Caroline has not beaten anyone of note.

Prediction: Poliana Botelho

Confidence in winner: 4

Randa Markos vs. Luana Pinheiro

10-10 record, Jesus Christ... Markos is like the Artem of women's MMA, except at least Artem had some popularity and was funny meme, but Markos just kinda sucks. Hard to believe she has wins over Esparza and Hill and a draw against Marina Rodriguez. It's 2021 though and she is 35, has not evolved at all, so at this point she only beats absolute bottom-feeder competition.

With three back-to-back losses, she is fighting for her UFC contract here for sure, especially since she is fighting a newcomer in Pinheiro. The thing about Pinheiro is that she has 7 fight win streak with all coming via finish in the 1st round... but all of those wins are against girls with (at best) similar records to Markos except those records have been gotten against much poorer competition than Markos has faced.

So... Maybe this is a winnable match for Markos finally? Even if an ugly grappling grind for a three round decision? I might not think Markos is much at this point, but she can do that still for sure.

I dunno, you are kinda between tree and a hard place trying to make a pick here. Pinheiro moves well at least but aside that we are really in the dark as to how good fighter she really is, so you either pick an untested fighter that might get completely dominated via top control against actually competitive grappler, or you pick Randa Markos who just kinda can lose to anyone cause she just isn't that great anywhere and only wins ugly fights.

I guess Markos is favorite here by some margin, she might suck but is durable so she will take Pinheiro out of 1st round and probably grind her through top control. There's some chance Pinheiro is actually pretty good or even takes a close decision by circling and poking Markos via shots but I expect this to be some epic low-level shit. 

Crazy odds.

Prediction: Randa Markos

Confidence in winner: 3

Kai Kamaka III vs. TJ Brown

Good match-up, both very competent guys everywhere. Kamaka was doing alright against Pearce but seemed to drown a little bit to the pace, whereas Brown just got his legs chopped down against Chavez. Brown probably has a slight advantage on the feet, but I figure Kamaka to be the slightly better grappler.

All in all because of the grappling advantage and perhaps a little bit better durability, I lean on Kamaka here, but for me this is pretty close to a 50/50 fight, expect three close rounds most of the time with small margins deciding who gets the round.

Prediction: TJ Brown

Confidence in winner: 2

Konklak Suphisara vs. Sam Hughes

Identical MMA records but a big, big difference in skill and experience. Tecia Torres went an entire MMA career without finishing anyone, but got blew Hughes so completely out of the water that she was done in one round.  Loma is probably not the fighter Tecia Torres is, but matches her in certain sense and this is a perfect match-up for her to show her skills. With her physical limits, I don't see Konklak ever threatening the top of the rankings but she could put on clinch clinics against these lower level opponents, and that's what I would like to see here.

Prediction: Konklak Suphisara

Confidence in winner: 4

Andreas Michailidis vs. KB Bhullar

This is a regional level fight... At least I generally do better at predicting those so let's see... I picked KB Bhullar last time around as a kind of a shot in the dark and got duly punished as he didn't look UFC level at all, getting finished fast by Tom Fucking Breese of all people. 

I don't know, it was a short debut and you should always give fighters slack for having poor performance when first stepping into UFC, but that really did not look good, he got KOd by a jab after eating a very clean cross before that.

As for Michailidis, he got also finished by another regional in Bukauskas, but at least he made it to the end of the round so we have more material to go by. Also he really didn't seem to get finished in that fight in hindsight, I mean sure he was probably a bit dazed by those elbows, but he wouldn't have gotten finished even if there was 30 seconds more on the clock, it was more him contesting they were illegal shots then not realizing the cage door had been opened behind him...

All in all, Michailidis seems not only more skilled but the much bigger and more durable guy. I think he is gonna obliterate Bhullar, but given the uncertainties and how little tape we have, can't get too overconfident with the pick.

Prediction: Andreas Michailids

Confidence in winner: 3

Luke Sanders vs. Felipe Dias Colares

Sanders has been finished 4 times in his last six fights, and his latest win was against completely shot Renan Barao. He is also 35 so this does not bode well for him all in all. Simply that durability will be a big factor in this fight, for Colares might have looked rough at times, but he has never been finished in his career.

I mean I don't know, Sanders was getting the better of the previous fight and he always has a chance cause he is a guy who plants his feet and swings big shots, but even if Maness didn't seem like a big power puncher, his shots were constantly buckling Sanders and he was able to absorb even clean shots that Sanders landed. I expect something similar to happen in this Colares fight.

For Colares this is a polar opposite of his previous match-up where he found himself at a 6 inch reach disadvantage against Montel Jackson. Now he is the one with the better reach by 2.5 inches. 

The only reservation about picking Colares here is the fact that he is so god damn hittable. Yes, his chin is legendary and that bodes well for him if this is a wild scrap, but eventually even those granite chins crumble when guys keep absorbing everything. Sanders hits hard if nothing else, aside that I feel Colares has him covered here.

Prediction: Felipe Dias Colares

Confidence in winner: 3