UFC on ESPN 22 Post-Fight Analysis

Mediocre event for me, but I wasn't that far off in my analysis for most matches - not far for making better picks and ending in a small win instead of small loss. Let's glean the lessons from the event that wasn't the greatest even in entertainment value.

Main Card

Not much to say about main event, except that Robert Whittaker looked even better than everyone expected, and he was already expected to be able to handle Gastelum. Still you would have thought he would face more adversity, but he put in a very solid shift and decisioned Gastelum 50-45. 

Co-main was also easy money, as Arlovski keeps being a reliable fighter against competition that isn't the most stellar. It's not that Sherman didn't give us couple of scares, but eventually Arlovski's superior skill and conditioning started to pay off. Still going strong at 42, I guess I should not be worried for the guy but rather let him enjoy as he keeps adding wins to his record.

Abdul Razak Alhassan turns out to be my worst pick of the night. I don't know how good Jacob Malkoun is for sure even now, but fact is Alhassan has been so completely figured out that anyone who can eat one getting in and has solid wrestling can just wear him down. When will I learn my lesson not to bet guys who have no gas tank, especially as big favorites? Awful pick, but ultimately not the one that makes or breaks my night as we will soon find out.

I thought Justine Kish did enough to just edge Tracy Cortez in the decision, but judges valued some top control higher than landing heavier strikes, and Cortez took home a split decision. It's just one of those tight decisions that could go either way, just the same as fight between Pena and Munoz. Similarly it looked like Munoz did enough to barely edge first two rounds, but that was even closer one and neither could feel comfortable in a decision there. 

Prelims

Still guess all the close decisions even out as Alexander Romanov completely gassed out but won an awful decision to bail me out of a bad pick. Honestly cannot understand how that last minute could be scored for Romanov. Either way, Espino was definitely the value there, but I would have lost had I picked him. MMA betting is weird sometimes.

Jessica Penne would have been probably the biggest value on the card, even if I think Godinez won the fight. Penne's stalling control was enough to sway the judges, and at those odds I wished I picked her even if Godinez did much more the damage and probably deserved the nod.

Bartosz Fabinski turns out to have terrible fight IQ, guess I should not be that surprised. Would have liked to see him use more of his striking. Not that he is some striking master but I still don't like how GM takes shots and it seemed like Fabinski was able to hurt him in the early going before he went for his single minded approach to wrestle and get submitted. Oh well, it is what it is, high variance match-up either way cause GM is so liable to lose decisions or randomly die, but also dangerous to submit guys.

Austin Hubbard was one of the easier picks of the night, Dakota Bush started strong, but a little bit too much output early had him badly gassed. Still respectable fighting through fatigue, didn't make it easy for Hubbard.

Anthony Birchak was still getting hit too much and reacting badly to getting hit, expecting him to wash out of UFC now that Gravely KO'd him.

My picks

Got exactly half right, 5 out of 10. Best pick was probably Arlovski, the old reliable that keeps making me money. Worst was definitely Abdul Razak Alhassan as said, no reason to ever bet him as a favorite. He might be a powerhouse but that's a low odds way to win at this level when pretty much everyone has some base level of wrestling and conditioning and he... well doesn't. 

Honorable mention is Alexander Romanov for worst pick, but that obviously worked out. I put 2+2 together in my analysis that Romanov is a big power guy who gets away with things with his power and will eventually get found out, but didn't still pull the trigger to bet on Espino. Lupita Godinez was also pretty bad pick. Never bet on an inexperienced woman as a favorite if she doesn't have a wrestling advantage.

Kish would have been honorable mention for best pick, but again that didn't work out, decision didn't go my way. No regrets about that one though, in the long run it at least breaks even.

All in all three awful picks out of ten, just gotta become even better at avoiding egregious errors like that. The other misses were either bad luck or high variance fights. Most frustrating aspect of the losses is that they were lessons that I should have already learned many times over at this point. Guess I'm the kind of guy that needs to slam his head on the wall 10 times before I finally believe that okay, it hurts. We got the big PPV card next weekend, but it looks very regional like prelims to me.  

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