UFC 262 Preview & Predictions
Main Event: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
There is some unknowns to discuss in this fight, but let's start with the obvious - neither should be a very big favorite regardless of how you feel the fight would go. Chandler is a big KO threat always and that gives you a chance to win a fight even if you get dominated in all ranges. Not that I expect that to happen, Hooker is a good striker and Chandler didn't have much trouble taking him out.
At the same time there is a reason Oliveira has the most submissions in UFC history, he is extremely dangerous when gets a hold of you. It's sad that Khabib is retired cause both of these guys would have posed an interesting, different challenge to him. Not saying I would favor either against Khabib, but they would certainly make for an interesting opponent.
Either way, I think Oliveira is the better fighter overall, but as impressive as his performance against Ferguson was, there is a chance that Tony is simply shot and Oliveira isn't so dominant actually. Still it looks like Oliveira might be able to drag it down to the mat even with a wrestler like Chandler, and if not, he still is overall the better striker of the two. He just doesn't have the raw power Chandler possesses.
Oliveira being hittable and Chandler hitting hard is what makes me hesitant to think that Chucky Olives has this. Still Oliveira's record is impressive considering he has now spent a decade in UFC and is only hitting his prime in this fight.
All in all, it's a close fight either way no matter what you feel, but my pick is Oliveira without seeing the odds. Once I see the odds I might pick Chandler though, cause as said, I don't think either should be a big favorite considering how potent both guys are in different ways.
Man that's tough, the current odds are pretty much exactly how I would line them... so guess we going with Chucky Olives then. Only thing I feel fairly confident about is that it won't go the distance.
Prediction: Charles Oliveira
Confidence in winner: 3
Co-Main Event: Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush
Hard fight to call actually. It certainly seems like Tony is shot, but I would say prime Tony is clear favorite against Dariush. That is not a knock on Dariush as much as it is simply stating what a monster Tony was in his prime. Prime Tony would weather early storm to make Dariush fatigued later on in the fight.
It's not impossible that happens now too, but it is starting to be the time to admit that the age and especially the miles are starting to take a toll on Tony. I mean it might be Chucky Olives is just that good, but I lean on Tony also not being the fighter he was to get dominated that thoroughly.
Even against Prime Tony though Dariush would probably outgrapple him early on. Tony has never been a hard guy to take down, he relies more on his crafty submissions and good bottom game usually if people take him down. Dariush completely shut out Ferreira last time around, and for someone to do that would suggest that even if Tony is dangerous grappler, it's a bad idea for him to accept bottom positions repeatedly again.
All in all I see this fight go three ways - 1) Tony might land something big early to starch Dariush. Tony might not be biggest power puncher, but he has finished guys and can hurt you. Dariush has already been KOd three times and got also rocked two fights against Klose. So that's definitely a real possibility, albeit not a huge one, 2) Dariush dominates Tony and wins UD or submission 3) Dariush gets some early success but fades as Tony takes his shots and gasses him out.
Out of all of those, 2) is by far the likeliest for me.
I don't think Dariush is a big value here, but I do think he is much more likely to take a win.
Prediction: Beneil Dariush
Confidence in winner: 4
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Viviane Araujo
Chookagian was busy in 2020, taking on the two best fighters of the division and being promptly finished, but putting in also solid shifts against two middling level fighters of the division. Araujo seems more of the same on paper, but if she is gonna make a run for the title, this has to be the breakout performance cause she is already 34 so won't have that much of her prime left.
Chookagian seems the third best fighter of the division still behind Shevchenko and Andrade, but she is barely above the rest of the competition and far behind the mentioned two. Against a typical opponent Chookagian wins a close decision, just like her last fight against Calvillo.
Chookagian is nothing special in the end, but she doesn't make a lot of mistakes, is solid with her technique, has decent athleticism, range and volume, so it's simply gonna take a great striker to beat her or someone who can consistently hold her down.
Is Araujo that great? Well... She is not bad for sure. I think it will be a very close affair on the feet, I would say that on the outside Chookagian has the advantage, but Araujo has good power and can probably box her up. I would be surprised if there is lot of grappling here, but guess if Araujo hurts Katlyn early, she might pursue that route. All in all slight lean towards Katlyn in this match-up, but Araujo definitely live dog.
Again odds are pretty much how I would line them, but I will take a little stab on Araujo here.
Prediction: Viviane Araujo
Confidence in winner: 2
Edson Barboza vs. Shane Burgos
Barboza might be 35 but he is still top of the line competitor, rough recent patch but mostly due to dodgy decisions, he has been fighting highest end of fighters and always had close fights with them. He is at the tail end of his career though and Burgos represents a much harder style match-up for him than Amirkhani was. Burgos will look to crowd him and force him to box with constant pressure, and at boxing range Burgos can definitely take Barboza.
Emmett took a few chunks out of Burgos' iron chin, but I expect there to be plenty of it left. I do think Barboza will land those fast straights he has quite a bit, but would be very surprised if those take Burgos out. All in all I do think it will be a close fight and I think Edson will be landing a lot on the counter, but he has to be on his A game and very well-conditioned to keep up the volume as Burgos takes him deep. Close to 50/50 but Burgos having more finishing potential (Edson being up there in age means he will be less durable of the two) makes me lean towards Burgos here.
Prediction: Shane Burgos
Confidence in winner: 3
Matt Schnell vs. Rogerio Bontorin
Schnell is solid everywhere, bit chinny, but doesn't get knocked out actually that often so I wouldn't say it's a big concern here. Bontorin is kinda early finish or bust type of guy, starts fast but tends to fade quickly as well.
That's why he got KOd late on in 1st round by Kara-France. It was his first KO loss so doesn't really make me think he is as chinny as Schnell, you just can't take shots so well when you get gassed from grappling all round.
Most probably Bontorin gets the first round, but then Schnell takes over and manages to keep the fight on the feet for the latter two rounds. Schnell is much the better striker and probably not so much worse grappler that he gets finished, so this will be a fight of close margins unless Bontorin scores early TDs both rounds and manages his energy better.
Prediction: Matt Schnell
Confidence in winner: 3
Jacare Souza vs. Andre Muniz
I still don't know how to feel about picking Jacare last time around, and it's relevant cause the same things apply for this match. Obviously Holland was shortly thereafter exposed as someone who can't handle wrestling, and Muniz is a guy who doesn't mind grappling off his back. So similarly, the expectation is for Souza to top control his way to victory.
Except he is old and just died randomly in his last fight. It's one thing to die in the stand-up but Holland wasn't even on his feet when he KO'd Jacare. So all I gotta take from that is that his chin at age 41 is completely pulverized and I can't trust him to take a shot from any man of his own size, even if Muniz isn't the biggest KO threat.
I do agree with the general consensus though that Souza is better striker and better wrestler and probably good enough grappler to stay on the feet. All in all much the better fighter, but just so badly over the hill that I am really hesitant to pick him.
Generally though in these over-the-hill vs. guy in his prime battles the guy in his prime will win, this is a young man's sport.
Still, small stab at Jacare for him being the better fighter overall. Probably gonna be one of those fights I lament afterwards as "I have my rules of thumb that are correct, but I always fail to follow them".
Prediction: Jacare Souza
Confidence in winner: 2
Lando Vannata vs. Mike Grundy
Groovy's career is full of fighting middling level lightweights and being always competitive, but not always winning. The consensus here seems to be among Twitter public that Grundy grinds Vannata down via takedowns, but will see, perhaps people are underrating Vannata's grappling a bit.
I do think It's likely Grundy does dominate the grappling, but at the same time, his striking is extremely low volume and Lando should be able to hit him a lot while the fight is still on the feet. Both guys have tendency to gas, but I do think if Grundy works a lot of offensive grappling but fails to score a lot of takedowns, he will be the one to gas harder.
All in all odds are probably about right to rate Grundy as a favorite, but I do think Vannata is worth playing after all.
Prediction: Lando Vannata
Confidence in winner: 3
Andrea Lee vs. Antonina Shevchenko
Lee is... alright I guess. Decent everywhere, but nothing spectacular. Generally her fights put me to sleep. As for Shevchenko, she is already established as someone with decent striking but nowhere near as good of a fighter overall as her sister is.
Either way, I saw someone write that Lee is better striker and grappler which makes her a must-bet here. Well, I don't know about that. It's definitely close in striking. I think it's fair to say Lee is a better grappler, but you haven't really seen her pursue a grappling-heavy gameplan, and ironically Shevchenko's grappling looked improved last time around, to the point it was actually her pursuing the takedowns and ultimate getting the finish on the mat.
In the end, it's an Andrea Lee fight. She is master of fighting into close decisions. Of her last 8 fights seven have been decisions with three split decisions included. So probably this one is which ever is underdog via SD as well for my prediction.
Prediction: Andrea Lee
Confidence in winner: 3
Jamie Pickett vs. Jordan Wright
I was not impressed by Pickett's performance in his last fight, and that went even worse considering how poorly his opponent fought in the next fight - Pickett simply made his opponent look better than he is.
As for Wright, he was facing a tougher opponent, but also looked really poor in that fight, just had obviously very big struggles with the range. So as a result my assessment of both fighter since last time has really dropped.
So all in all I feel like this is actually a pretty even fight and it's more a matter of who takes the lead cause neither fighter seems to do very well when pressured. In that regard I think Wright will have the upper hand, cause he has the better clinch of the two. That being said, I predict there to be at least couple of close rounds so this one is up in the air for me. One of those "let's see the odds and then decide" kind of fights.
Prediction: Jordan Wright
Confidence in winner: 2
Gina Mazany vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Cachoeira has had a rough run in the UFC, getting borderline killed first by Valentina Shevchenko... man it's crazy to think in hindsight that it's a real match they made, future p4p women's GOAT against complete scrub fighter how barely deserves to be in UFC. Predictably it was a complete shutout that pretty much ended Yamasaki's career. As for Cachoeira, she kept losing in the UFC until last time around KOing Dobson for her first UFC victory.
So she is better now? Not a scrub anymore? Well... wouldn't say so. Dobson is perhaps worst fighter on the UFC payroll, certainly up there (or rather down there) with likes of Vinicius Moreira etc. Beating her is not a much of a feather in your cap.
As for Mazany, many people have not rated her either and this certainly is a classic low-level women's MMA fight. That being said, Mazany has actually not looked half bad in her last couple of fights and actually has some wins worth mentioning, like beating Ostovich last time around and Yanan Wu back in 2017. Not greatest wins but still much better than beating Dobson.
Cachoeira fights super sloppy and just wants to trade in the pocket. Mazany seems like a willing partner for that kind of stuff, but she does have takedowns too. The fact she is willing to trade is what gives Cachoeira only path of victory here, catching Gina with something. Most of the time if Gina fights smart (big if) she will take this down and top control her way to victory, perhaps even find a submission.
Prediction: Gina Mazany
Confidence in winner: 4
Kevin Aguilar vs. Tucker Lutz
Aguilar is on a three fight losing skid as he welcomes another Contender alumni in Lutz. You never know about these Contender guys really, but at least Lutz showed a well-rounded game and some solid leg kicks. That's something that should work pretty well against Aguilar who does seem a little susceptible to getting leg kicked. Another problem Aguilar has is a relatively low volume even if he does stalk the opponent.
Finally Aguilar is very hittable, the head doesn't move too much from the centerline. So far his chin has mostly held up, though he does have two KO losses on his record as it is, and at 32 it might be that damage starts to accumulate already. Will see, I don't particularly expect Lutz to score a KO here, but I do expect him to come with urgency, keep a high pace, hammer at the leg and get the victory whatever means necessary.
Prediction: Tucker Lutz
Confidence in winner: 3
Christos Giagos vs. Sean Soriano
Soriano has actually been in the UFC before, but all his fights happened just before I started following MMA, so this is my first time of seeing him in action in the Octagon. Obviously his UFC run was rough, getting finished twice and going 0-3 before getting cut. Since then he hasn't been exactly stellar on the regional scene, but at least the 6-3 post-UFC record isn't completely terrible.
The story that his record really tells is that he struggles against guys who can grapple, but is dangerous striker who has the power to take you out. Well Giagos just completely dominated Carlton Minus on short noticed with a strong grappling performance and has not been stopped since Josh Emmett KO back in 2016.
All in all that makes me thing Giagos is too solid here for Soriano to hurt and will work enough takedowns to get a win. Giagos doesn't necessarily always keep you down all round, but he has enough wrestling to keep taking you down and presuming he had a longer preparation for this fight, you'd think he doesn't gas as hard as he did against Minus, even if he has always been notoriously gassy. Soriano is also on short notice which does reduce whatever advantage he could have by Giagos gassing out.
Prediction: Christos Giagos
Confidence in winner: 3
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