UFC Fight Night 188 Post-Fight Analysis

Back-to-back winning events, but barely and just like last time, the overwhelming feeling at the end is of having missed out on an opportunity to make huge profits.

Main Card

Cody wasn't exactly No Chin, but he certainly wasn't the skilled, smooth and smart fighter that I was hoping he would have become. He started very well, and even mixed in takedowns as I hoped he would, but he didn't maintain top control very well. He also was really putting a hurting on Font early on with those calf kicks, but then just inexplicably stopped throwing them despite Font absorbing most of them. 

In the end Cody took a ton of damage getting boxed up by Font, which means he has a chin, but I still don't like how he reacts to shots and I think he is still always close to getting KOd. After fighting absolute top of the line competition, he needs a drop in competition, but with Bantamweight being such a shark tank, it's hard to imagine much lower-level opposition to be available. Maybe Chito Vera or Casey Kenney or someone like that?

Anyway getting Main Event wrong at least was excusable. Like I said, I called some things right in that fight. Getting the Esparza pick wrong on the other hand when everyone was calling it right and when it was there to be seen in the tape was just an embarrassment. I saw what everyone else saw, worse wrestlers taking Yan down, but I guess I somehow convinced myself she would be able to move and pick off Esparza at least to some extent before getting grappled up. I don't know, in hindsight Esparza clear no brainer max bet. 

I do feel very bad about that one cause it tainted an otherwise excellent night, as I only got my first pick wrong in the fight prior. I forgive myself for getting the volatile heavyweight fight wrong, it was also really hard to see Vanderaa dominating that clearly in the stand-up after how badly Spivac dominated him. Either way guess we have to accept Tafa just isn't very good and has not shown any signs of really improving...

Norma Dumont didn't have to do much to beat Felicia Spencer in a decision. Just few flurries per round of pretty sharp boxing pulled her way ahead on the scorecards as Spencer did fuck all except sponge up some damage. Poor performance, terrible fight IQ. How did this chick become an Invicta champ? It almost looks like you could pull any semi-athletic chick off the street, train her for a couple of years and she is ripe for being a champ in these smaller organizations...

Ricardo Ramos and Bill Algeo had a close fight, striking was close with Algeo perhaps pulling a little bit ahead, but Ramos giving Algeo problems with his grappling made the difference in the scorecards. Seriously though Ramos needs to work on his top control, he gets the back and on top a lot, but allows the opponents get up and away too easy. 

Jack Hermansson and Edmen Shahbazyan opened the card with a war. Jack was a little off in the first round, not putting as much pressure as he probably would have wanted while taking a lot of damage - Edmen perhaps the best striker in the division for a round, I mean even Vettori did not lay a beating like that on Hermansson in any round. 

Either way Jack had a perfect start to second round, managing a lot of top control. I still personally think Edmen should have gotten that round as Edmen turned the tables at the end and put much more damage on him.

The gas tank issues showed up as usual though, and Edmen was badly dominated in the last round. That fight should have been stopped in my opinion, but Herb allowed the beat down to continue until the final horn. That ought to have been 10-7 round, it was such a thorough domination. Either way Hermansson got the decision just as predicted. I really hope they start feeding much lower level competition to Edmen, the guy is still young and doesn't need to get killed in 3rd rounds every time. He will never be a champ because of his gas tank issues, so just feed him guys to KO in the first and fill up that highlight reel. Allow him to flourish as what he is, fun action fighter and stop treating him like an actual contender that needs to fight top-10 competition.

Prelims

There were some easy money opportunities in the prelims with complete mismatches, and the featured prelim with Ben Rothwell fighting against Chris Barnett was one such fight. Barnett had very little in way of skills, obviously he tried to make it chaotic and swing hard, but Ben didn't really have much trouble and Barnett was never gonna make it to final bell in that match even if he didn't gas... and gas he did badly. Anyone who got that wide Rothwell sub prop did a very good bet.

I think Claudio Silva looked better this time than against Krause, but in the end he only has one round of gas and after that he just sort of toughs it out, so McGee was pretty comfortable all through the match with him to take a decision.

Bruno Silva was another easy money opportunity, KOing a guy who had no business in UFC in exactly a minute. I was on that KO prop, but I should have been on it much heavier in hindsight, should have really gone balls deep in there cause this one wasn't hard to call at all.

Josh Culibao showed some improved striking against Nuerdanbieke Shayilan, though I guess it helped he was fighting two rounds against a gassed wrestler, so not too much conclusions you can get from this. 

David Dvorak did quick work of the last minute replacement who wasn't really that intent on fighting hard once he started having adversity, so Dvorak got his first UFC finish before halfway first round. 

In the opener Ismagulov showed some ring rust getting hurt by Rafael Alves, but rallied to win the round and controlled the second round as well. Alves did okay too though, managing to put a hurting on Ismagulov couple of times in a fight where few expected him to have a chance.

My bets

I got 9 out of 12 right, but there was no reason that should not have been 11 out of 12. Only mistake I forgive myself for is picking Tafa. Worst bet by far and one that makes me wanna pound my head on the wall is picking Yan over Esparza. I called that fight completely wrong, the grappling mismatch was very evident. I needed to study that fight harder, but I hate studying Esparza fights... anyway now she didn't just squeak a split decision, he was really dominant in the wrestling. 

Best pick for me was to go deep on the Rothwell finish and having a little on Rothwell submission. I also was on Silva KO but should have gone deeper as I said. 

It should have been a night of going up 4 to 8 bets at least, but instead I barely made a profit. Just need to be more careful and analytic, Yan pick was too based on feel and little impressions rather than thorough analysis, just my brain completely turning off when I wrote that. 

I dunno, I guess there is worse times to go for a week break than after having back-to-back winning events. Gonna try to build on this, maybe next time I can make some bigger profits and not miss out on such obvious opportunities. The opportunities are gonna be there with the way matchmaking is these days.