UFC Fight Night 188 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Rob Font vs. Cody Garbrandt

Chin vs. No Chin. I dunno Font has slowly developed into a legit contender, while Cody has started to get KOd left and right. He gets through aged Assuncao and people presume that his chin is back and he is gonna make it back to the title? I don't know. But let's face it, the guy has really good hands, moves excellently and has excellent athleticism. He did also look much improved in the fight against Assuncao... so maybe?

As for Font, he has now notched up three straight wins after dispatching the former title contender Moraes last time around. That being said, seems like Moraes is kinda washing out so you can't put too much stock on that result. 

I dunno I actually rate Cody much higher after checking the last fights of the each guy. Font beat Moraes easily, but unless Cody goes brain dead again he isn't gonna be there to be hit like that. Also Cody would do smart to mix in some wrestling, he certainly has the capability to do so. They are both good and fast strikers and durability edge goes to Font, however Cody hits harder which evens things out. It's hard to believe this going full five rounds but I suppose anything is possible. 

I mean I don't really feel confident to even pick unders here cause Cody might show up again looking very measured and Font might be able to take his best shots unlike Assuncao.

I think Cody is my pick with reservations.

Prediction: Cody Garbrandt

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Xiaonan Yan vs. Carla Esparza

It's gonna probably be a razor thin fight. Obviously Esparza has nothing for Yan on the feet, but she moves well, grabs hold of you and takes you down, which Gadelha managed to do to Yan, but unlike Gadelha, Esparza can actually keep that wrestling attack up for three rounds.

So it is either an infuriating close decision win for Esparza like she usually gets, or Yan beats her up. Or actually she will beat her up anyway, but might get taken down twice to get top controlled to lose two rounds in a split decision.

I gotta see the odds for this one, I do think Yan is favorite, but Esparza is always playable when a girl can be taken down a few times.

As a small favorite, I will definitely have Yan here, she will score much the more damage here so if judges don't overly value takedowns.

Prediction: Xiaonan Yan

Confidence in winner: 3

Justin Tafa vs. Jared Vanderaa

Man don't you just love high-level MMA? We got a guy who lost to Spivac vs. the guy who got completely flattened by De Castro. Also a classic striker vs. wrestler match-up. I mean, if you think someone who gasses and gets completely dominated in wrestling by Spivac is a wrestler.

Vanderaa just isn't very good. He kinda got here by bullying low level competition with his size and wrestling, but the moment he ran into someone remotely good like Spivac, he got completely dominated and simply wilted. As for Tafa, he is raw, he is not very skilled yet, but he does have natural power and toughness and that's something, if he has improved his skills he should be able to survive whatever wrestling pressure Vanderaa gives him and then finish him. 

Because of Vanderaa's tendency to gas and give up, I don't think this goes the distance either way. Tafa has seen decision only once, in his last fight, and Vanderaa has seen 3 decisions in his career.

Another thing worth noting is that Vanderaa's last lost was very late stoppage, the ref allowed Spivac to add like 30 strikes to the head on the ground after Vanderaa had already given up. That extra damage could also play a factor here when Tafa lands hard.

On the other hand, Tafa is gassy and we haven't really seen how his wrestling defence is, so it's also entirely possible he just becomes easy takedown target and loses via lay and pray decision. Or gets finished on the ground late on. Though kinda hard to imagine, I see just two gassed guys rolling on the floor...

Either way, I think Tafa has the more upside here.

Prediction: Justin Tafa

Confidence in winner: 2

Felicia Spencer vs. Norma Dumont

So the tape for this fight was watching Spencer get slaughtered by Nunes for 25 minutes and Dumont beating at best peripherally UFC level fighter. So either way we are talking about a low confidence pick here. 

Dumont does move much better and has much the sharper hands, but Spencer has the big wrestling upside at least on paper, however as Dumont hasn't yet been that battle tested it's hard to say really. It's also hard to say how much that Nunes beatdown took out of Spencer.

All in all I am taking a small shot on Dumont here, not worth it to lay chalk on a woman who looks so rough standing up, but even so I do think most of the time Spencer lays and prays her way to a victory.

Prediction: Norma Dumont

Confidence in winner: 1

David Dvorak vs. Raulian Paiva

Big fan of Dvorak and he comfortably beat Espinosa, but I kinda expected him to be even more ahead of him. Still, solid if unspectacular is something that describes Dvorak well, facing now another tough flyweight contender in Raulian Paiva.

Paiva beat Zhalgas in the last fight pretty easily, but Zhalgas also kinda didn't show up. I also feel like whatever parallels Zhalgas and Dvorak have, Dvorak is just better everywhere, more sound defensively and better offensive striking.

The only disadvantage here Dvorak has is not being as long as Paiva is. All in all I am expecting a very close fight in this one, but think Paiva being more hittable will ultimately pull Dvorak to a close decision victory. Either way I also think Dvorak is the higher probability for getting a finish as the more powerful guy.

Edit: Apparently this has changed on last minute? Well its too late for me to do new research for the replacement, but I would presume Paiva was better than this guy and its short notice, Dvorak is too solid to be beaten by someone like that.

Prediction: David Dvorak

Confidence in winner: 3

Jack Hermansson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan 

Jack just went five rounds and Edmen got finished by Brunson... why are they making this match? As I said in the first preview when you have power, you always have some chance, and Edmen certainly has power, but that's all he has here. Hermansson ought to dominate this match if he does not randomly die. Might lose first round if he can't drag Edmen down, but after that he should be able to top control his way to a win.

And yea that is me pulling 180 on Edmen. I mean I still think Edmen is a real deal... for about a round or so. He does not have the kind of gas tank to consistently win fights at the top level. He might win this fight but it's again only a matter of time before someone extends him to later rounds and beats him.

Given Vettori didn't finish Hermansson, I don't expect Edmen to do it either. Hermansson wins at least two rounds via top control most of the time here.

Prediction: Jack Hermansson 

Confidence in winner: 3

Bill Algeo vs. Ricardo Ramos

Ramos was someone I was riding high on before that KO loss against Murphy. Now... I don't know. He certainly didn't suddenly turn bad but it is kinda worrysome that a 25-year-old guy has already been finished 3 times. Either way, Do Bronx just became the champ after similar early trajectory, so let's not jump into conclusions here. 

Skillwise, Ramos is still one of the brighter prospects of the division, but one gotta worry about his chin with the shots he ate against Murphy... I mean is Murphy that powerful, or should we be concerned that Ramos looks like he is going out with single GnP shots? It does make me feel a little uneasy but at the same time it's not like Murphy landed anything solid on him standing up, so Ramos still ought to have good defence. 

As for Algeo, he has similar amount of fight experience but is much older already, at the age where he ought to be hitting his prime. I honestly see this being a very close fight, I would say Ramos perhaps bit better skillwise but fight IQ and durability are on Algeo's side. Gotta see the odds for this one, no strong opinions one way or the other, could be a typical kind of close decision fight.

Close one but I will still pick Ramos here, hopefully the guy fights smarter and has improved a little bit.

Prediction: Ricardo Ramos

Confidence in winner: 2

Ben Rothwell vs. Chris Barnett

Josh's cousin finally gets his opportunity in the UFC on short notice. Just making shit up now, I doubt there is any connection. Anyway this seems a very late notice change of fight, Rothwell on a full camp against regional, wouldn't expect this to be competitive but let's see if I can find some tape on Barnett. He has very nice six fight win streak, but only one of the opponents even has over 5 career wins. 

Nah man Barnett is terrible, I had to set the playback speed to 1.5x just for it to be bearable to watch. He might be big and strong but throws slow, looping shots and I would be really shocked if he catches good ol' big Ben here. Gimme for Rothwell, probably finishes it too. Last guy to KO Ben was Velasquez, and there is no reason to think he has fallen off that far that he would get KOd here. 

Prediction: Ben Rothwell

Confidence in winner: 5

Claudio Silva vs. Court McGee

Two guys completely over the hill. It's Silva here that looks far the more cooked guy though. Court kinda didn't show up last time, he should have beaten Condit if he fought a reasonable strategy, but it's not like the guy has become gassy, slow or getting knocked out left and right, even if he has 5 losses in his last six fights.

I suppose Claudio Silva either clubs Court early with something big, or manages a takedown and subs him, or Court grinds him out to a decision. I lean on Court's side, but as said, neither looked great last time and I actually don't think it's impossible for gassed out Silva to squeak two rounds for a decision simply cause Court doesn't put enough volume in. 

It's kinda tough to pick Court though because to really grind out Silva, Court would probably like to mix in some wrestling and clinch, but that would put him right into where Silva excels. The way to beat Silva is exactly like Krause did it, a volume kickboxing fight. In a way that's how Court fought against Condit though. All in all pretty close on paper but probably ends up looking very wide in hindsight. Silva Rd 1 probably worth looking at, or Court by decision. As gassy as Silva got, he never completely wilted to the point he was in danger of getting finished.

Prediction: Court McGee

Confidence in winner: 2

Bruno Silva vs. Victor Rodriguez

Seriously, why is there a 5-3 guy in the UFC? Also, why does it seem like he has a reasonable chance to win this? I really don't like this direction UFC is going lately, mediocre regionals mixed with world class talent, clearly allowing the nearly title contender level guys (Romero, Woodley, Rory, etc) to exit but then flooding the roster with Contender guys.

Anyway rant over and onto the match-up. Silva's been struggling a bit in the UFC, but managed to grab a win last time around against JP Buys. Rodriguez on the other hand got absolutely styled by Yanez. Goes without saying this is a completely different match-up.

I think Silva's last fight was a total gimme fight, but at the same time so does this look like one as well. Yanez was a tough opponent, but based on the little we know it's hard to think Rodriguez is great. Bit of an unknown quantity here, but Rodriguez is a regional with 8 fights and already two KO losses, whereas Silva at least has been battle-tested in the UFC and not completely blown apart by much better guys, so I think we gonna see another KO from Silva here.

Prediction: Bruno Silva

Confidence in winner: 4

Joshua Culibao vs. Yilan Sha

Sha is another guy from the Chinese regional scene, lost against Zhu Rong and has quite a bit of sub losses in his record as well. That ought to be something Culibao could exploit, he does seem a dangerous grappler and I was pretty impressed by him going to a draw with Jourdain. Hopefully this is a more appropriate match-up for him cause there is a risk that he is getting thrown into the deep end too soon.

My only reservation here is that Yilan is a bit of an unknown quantity, but generally these Chinese regionals are something of a hit and miss still so reasonably confident Culibao can get the job done, wouldn't be surprised if we see a round 1 sub. 

Prediction: Josh Culibao

Confidence in winner: 3

Yancy Medeiros vs. Damir Hadzovic

Medeiros is on a three fight losing streak and has been finished a few times in recent years. Chin looks to be going and the mileage is up there, so it's hard to pick him confidently against anyone. He is meeting another aging fighter on a small skid in Hadzovic. Hadzovic is 3-4 overall in UFC and will for sure face a cut if he loses this one. While older than Medeiros, Hadzovic doesn't have the miles on him that Medeiros has, having only been KOd once by Taisumov. 

Could we see more of a grappling Medeiros here? I think he is bit slow at this weight division for striking, but he still has some chin left cause he managed to make it to decision against Lando despite getting largely picked apart. Hadzovic doesn't have great grappling defence and Medeiros could pose some problems from distance.

If they do stand, there is always the chance Medeiros randomly dies, but he does have handy reach advantage as well, so I guess aside that the question is who of these two has the higher output. I would say Medeiros, but I am reserved to pick Medeiros in a volume kickboxing match because he doesn't defend punches very well.

All in all it's pretty close to pick 'em for me, with the lean to Medeiros in striking volume, grappling and reach advantage being offset by Medeiros having mileage on him.

Prediction: Yancy Medeiros

Confidence in winner: 2

Rafael Alves vs. Damir Ismagulov

Alves has quite a bit of experience already, which also means he has been finished bunch of times. He didn't look that impressive in his Contender fight, was kinda getting picked apart until a Hail Mary guillotine. I guess all in all you can still say he is not bad, doesn't slow down too much, walks with his feet planted and wings power shots, anything might happen when he fights.

He is going to have his work cut out for him as he faces Ismagulov who has been undefeated since his 6th pro fight in 2015. His UFC record is perfect 3-0 with all decisions, however there is one but - the fact that he has not fought in almost two years. So yeah, ring rust will be a factor, but considering Ismagulov has never been finished and seems to be the much higher output guy of the two, I am not too worried for him. 

Honestly Ismagulov should be much better here in all ranges and I expect him to destroy Alves. He has enough power to finish this fast, but I do think finish here is more likely to come late on through accumulation of damage. He will blast the legs and hit sharp straight counters as Alves coming in.

Prediction: Damir Ismagulov

Confidence in winner: 4