UFC on ESPN 24 Preview & Predictions

Nice and short 10 fight card to preview this time, let's get right to it.

Main Event: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson

Waterson has to grapple, her low volume shadowboxing from one kilometer away won't cut it with Rodriguez. Waterson is small strawweight, Rodriguez a big one. There will be a distinct strength advantage, but Waterson at least is technical in her grappling so can win rounds through that or even get a submission.

Still with the distinct size difference you have to lean on Rodriguez here. He cracks unusually hard for a woman of her size. Then again, lot of grapplers had made it a tight fight against her so you can't be highly confident of her winning it either. Still got a gut feeling that she gets Waterson quite hurt at some point of the fight. 

I mean I don't know, I see reasonably good chance for Waterson here, but don't wanna pick her cause she is just so unreliable. Not to forget she is already 35.

Prediction: Marina Rodriguez

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Donald Cerrone vs. Alex Morono

Cowboy is husk of his former self, but as the draw against Niko Price showed us, he is not so far gone yet that I would think Morono can beat him. I mean it's a sad thing if he is that far gone. Think Cerrone has this pretty much on every range, Morono can perhaps win it with volume and by making it an ugly fight that extends deep, but aside that should be good one for Cowboy.

Prediction: Donald Cerrone

Confidence in winner: 2

Neil Magny vs. Geoff Neal

Ehh, for my money this should be co-main or maybe even main event. Actually much higher level fight with somewhat relevant fighters. Both guys got respectively dominated in five round main events last time around. At least for Neal it was Thompson that completely dominated him, but Magny had a poor performance against Chiesa. 

Neal is the better, more explosive striker but Magny has the clinch, range and volume, and in that kind of match-up, I tend to favor Magny. All in all I expect it to be a very close fight though, good chance we get a split decision here.

I also think there's a good chance Magny is value considering how poor he looked against Chiesa, ripe opportunity for market overreaction. Odds aren't super wide though, but I will take a little stab at Magny winning via ugly clinch fighting and volume.

Prediction: Neil Magny

Confidence in winner: 2

Maurice Greene vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Crothet boss kinda sucks. De Lima isn't the best figher either, but he comes cracking hard, has a chin and boxes you up aggressively, think it's poison for Greene's style. Don't think this one goes the distance.

Prediction: Marcos Rogerio De Lima

Confidence in winner: 3

Diego Ferreira vs. Gregor Gillespie

Interesting fight. Both guys suffered big set-backs last time around, both are excellent grapplers. Both are probably already past their primes too at 36 and 34, especially after Gregor took a bad KO last time around. Either way I don't think that will affect much his ability to have wrestling control over Ferreira. 

Ferreira was always gonna lose to Dariush, but it kinda also felt that Ferreira is actually past his prime. Still the guy is a great grappler and I have seen takes saying he is better grappler than Gillespie... I don't know, Gillespie leads the top control statistics for whole UFC. Still it's gonna be tricky for him to enter the ground game with Ferreira, and Ferreira does have good volume on the feet.

It's also mystery how Gregor will look after so long out, that being said I tend to believe he will come in excellent shape. It might actually be smartest for him to just clinch up Ferreira and keep him on the fence. Interesting to see how this one plays out, I am siding with the younger guy.

Prediction: Gregor Gillespie

Confidence in winner: 2

Amanda Ribas vs. Angela Hill

Ribas via positional control... maybe submission? Yeah she got caught by Rodriguez last time around and Hill is a better striker, but Hill doesn't powershot you like Rodriguez so I don't think an accident like that happens to Ribas again. Hill has the volume and skill to make it close, but yeah pretty confident that Ribas gets at least two rounds here.

Prediction: Amanda Ribas

Confidence in winner: 3

Phil Hawes vs. Kyle Daukaus

I don't know. Both guys love to clinch a lot, and I think in that range it will be a very close fight. Perhaps Hawes has the striking, speed and power advantages? Those would make him have the edge here, but at the same time I think Daukaus just might be bit better in the clinch and more likely to keep a high pace all through the fight. I gotta see the odds in this one before I make a pick.

Seems pretty much a pick em so I go by my gut that's telling me Daukaus will edge it.

Prediction: Kyle Daukaus

Confidence in winner: 3

Ludovit Klein vs. Michael Trizano

Klein by another head kick? I don't know, it actually seems a pretty close striking match-up on paper, but Trizano has not fought in a long time which means I ain't gonna pick him. He might show up vastly improved and put a showing on Klein, but at the same time he might come out rusty and starting slow is not really something you can get away with against Klein.

Prediction: Ludovit Klein

Confidence in winner: 2

Tafon Nchukwi vs. Jun Yong Park

Nchuwki is built like a brick and obviously looked very solid in his UFC debut, but his opponent wasn't that good. Perhaps Park isn't that good either, but he is at least alright everywhere and showed he can exploit someone not having any takedown defence in last couple of fights.

Still I lean on Nchukwi being too much of a powerhouse, but this is a good test for him and we will get to see how good he really is if someone tries to grapple him. That's how I expect this to go, Park can probably hang on the feet but the moment he gets cracked, I am sure he will start pursuing the takedown.

At presents odds, with Nchukwi not being a huge favorite, I still will pick him to make his power make a difference.

Prediction: Tafon Nchukwi

Confidence in winner: 3

Christian Aguilera vs. Carlston Harris

It's pretty classic striker versus grappler match-up. Harris just wants to grab you and stay glued to you, not an exciting style to watch but given he has some striking to go with his grappling and a solid chin, I expect that style to grind out a comfortable decision for him. Little bit of uncertainty though given Harris is only making his debut so might show up below his usual level.

Prediction: Carlston Harris

Confidence in winner: 3

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