UFC 263 Preview & Predictions
Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori
Pardon me if I don't wanna rewatch the turgid affair that was Blachowicz vs. Adesanya, but I have been bit surprised to see everyone and their grandmother picking Vettori here? I mean I suppose it's a closer fight than odds would suggest but Vettori is no Blachowicz when it comes to wrestling. Izzy struggled with Jan's size in the previous match both in terms of striking and especially in terms of grappling. That doesn't all the sudden mean that Izzy is easy to takedown and hold there.
Vettori is easily 20 pounds smaller than Jan is and probably considerably weaker in terms of strength. It's still probable he scores some takedowns here though. Can he make the striking even enough that it makes a difference? Vettori has improved from their first fight where he got outstruck, but he was pretty soundly beaten in that one. It wasn't as close as people make it out to be.
I think Vettori will make the fight closer this time, but still lose first three rounds. Who knows what happens in the latter rounds when fatigue inevitably sets in, but I don't think Vettori is winning a decision and Vettori isn't some powerful puncher or sub grappler to get a finish, so even with wide odds it's really hard for me to justify playing Vettori here.
I don't know, all in all it seems to me everyone overreacted to Vettori being a takedown machine against Holland (who has awful takedown defence) and the fact Adesanya was so easily kept down by Jan (who is massive compared to Vettori).
Vettori hasn't had KO since 2015 in Venator. If you guys wanna back him to get a decision here, good luck, I for one think it's another Adesanya masterclass. Easy to say that Vettori will have to get his wrestling going early to have a way to win here.
Prediction: Israel Adesanya
Confidence in winner: 4
Co-Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno
I was feeling Figueiredo has this before watching tape, but the match was much closer than I remembered it to be. So in the end I am on the fence, but how long can Moreno keep relying on that legendary chin before Deiveson cracks it.
All in all the first fight was a draw because of Deiveson using dirty tactics and losing a point. I still think he will foul, but it's unlikely he will lose another point. He has enough gas tank to win three rounds and has the higher upside to finish, so I have to pick him here. He did struggle with Brandon's grappling a bit and Brandon hit him with some headkicks, but his durability is very good and he still was never under any real submission threat.
Also if I am wrong it's good since I like Moreno, so it's a win-win situation to pick Deiveson here.
Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo
Confidence in winner: 3
Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz
I don't see any range Diaz has this. The best skills Diaz has are his boxing and grappling, but I think Leon is at least as good of a boxer and will be too good of wrestler to get taken down here... not to mention he probably is good enough of a grappler as well to stay out of trouble with Diaz, should the fight go to the floor.
I'm not entirely sold on Edwards being a title contender, but he should be able to take care of out of his prime journeyman with ring-rust after being gone nearly two years. This should be one sided beatdown, but I wouldn't mind being surprised somehow here.
Prediction: Leon Edwards
Confidence in winner: 5
Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad
Maia is 43 and has been out of his prime for long time already... what is with these grapplers and not retiring early enough? Belal isn't the very top of the line in welterweight division but he is a solid fighter. Maia always has a path to victory cause he is a grappling wizard, and I would love nothing better than to see another vintage submission, but it's just hard to see it happening and if this fight goes deep, damage will start to accumulate.
The only positive is that Belal isn't a big puncher so at least Maia doesn't get killed out there, but he will take a lot of damage for sure (if he doesn't finish fast)
Prediction: Belal Muhammad
Confidence in winner: 4
Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill
I think Hill is supposed to be the favorite here being one of the better prospects in the light heavyweight division, but we haven't seen him tested in all facets yet, and Craig will put him to new tests unless he gets starched early. Craig has been steadily improving and always has a way to victory with his grappling.
All in all Hill is much the more talented fighter, but this isn't a game of overall talent, this is more a game of weakest link deciding the victory. I don't really have any reason to think that Craig will beat Hill anywhere here, but at the same time it's an untested 8-0 guy, so we have no reason to think that he wouldn't have a weakness.
When I look at the guys who beat Craig it doesn't exactly make me confident to pick him though. Menifield, Crute, Pedro, fucking Roundtree... Yeah, Craig struggles with strikes who can hit him with power. I guess I just snap ITD and tiny bet for Hill here? I wanna pick Craig cause the odds strike me as lopsided, but I can't make a pick when I really think it happens too rarely. Hill stays undefeated for me here.
Prediction: Jamahal Hill & Match ends ITD
Confidence in winner: 2
Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart
I got it wrong the first time, got bailed out then by the NC. Now can pretty safely say not much has changed, so no reason to think anything else than that Anders has it. He had a rough start to the previous fight, but then figured out the blueprint to beating Stewart - push him against the cage and wing some powershots. Both are big and powerful guys obviously so there is always some volatility to these fights, but I think Anders has more to improve from the first fight and he was already on verge of winning it to begin with.
Prediction: Eryk Anders
Confidence in winner: 3
Lauren Murphy vs. Joanne Calderwood
Honestly... I don't give a shit. Neither is very good, but in this dead division it takes them near the top of the rankings. Murphy is old but she can grind and make it ugly if striking isn't working out for her, Calderwood pretty much has to outstrike her for a decision or bust. Either way I'm betting small on this one, but let's go Murphy one more time.
Prediction: Lauren Murphy
Confidence in winner: 2
Hakeem Dawodu vs. Movsar Evloev
Evloev via volume. Dawodu has the skills and power to put Evloev's lights out, but Evloev has been good at surviving bad situations. I think this fight will tell a lot about Evloev's long term potential, certainly if he dominates Dawodu that would be a big statement, and if he gets hit hard couple of times and survives that would also prove he has a good chin. All in all I think Evloev will throw volume of strikes and engage in some clinch and takedowns to edge rounds. Dawodu will have some explosions and moments, but his only path to victory will be via KO or hurting Evloev so bad that he is compromised for rest of the fight.
Prediction: Movsar Evloev
Confidence in winner: 4
Pannie Kianzad vs. Alexis Davis
Davis beat Mazo last time around, but it still seems like she is a drop in competition for Kianzad who is on a three-fight win streak having beaten some solid competition, well at least in the most latest fight against Eubanks.
Don't think it's a blowout, Davis might win a round with top control or something, but I think Kianzad should have this covered on all ranges and win via UD.
Prediction: Pannie Kianzad
Confidence in winner: 3
Matt Frevola vs. Terrance McKinney
McKinney is last minute replacement and far more dangerous opponent on paper than the guy Frevola was supposed to face, Camacho. Kind of a side note but Camacho is probably washed out to the point where I think even Frevola is probably KOing him. Either way, McKinney is a solid looking prospect who's last two losses were against UFC level competition.
He is on a few day notice, but given all his last 9 fights have ended in 7 minutes or less, with last three wins all coming in under 72 seconds, he is the ideal short notice fighter and does not need a full gas tank to get you out of there.
Minner loss at least was a total fluke. All in all McKinney looks like a tough guy to beat, coming in blasting power punches and kicks with especially his head kick being devastatingly effective. His powershots then set up his takedowns as well, so usually you either absorb something huge when he comes in or block the strikes but get taken down. Tough guy to figure out and rangy for the division.
Frevola has of course been blasted out of there fast before, with his only KO loss coming in just a minute, but last time he faced another highly touted prospect in Tsarukyan. Frevola hustles hard, is durable and has a gas tank but it would appear he is at a skill deficit here, certainly at a physicality deficit. Obviously if he can take this deep he has a chance to win a decision, but I would definitely be looking into getting McKinney here either with moneyline or 1st round KO, depending on the odds. Even Tsarukyan landed that left high kick on Frevola, so if McKinney finds that same shot its night night for anyone.
Prediction: Terrance McKinney / Terrence McKinney in 1st
Confidence in winner: 4
Chase Hooper vs. Steven Peterson
Why? What? Why? What? How?
Look Peterson isn't the GOAT or anything, but he is 27 fight veteran potentially in his prime with a handful of KOs and having never been finished via submission. How do you expect Chase Hooper to win here? Also, why is Hooper fighting again? He has gaping hole in his striking and should take long extended times between fights to improve it. Especially since UFC doesn't feed him some Contender scrubs (even they outstrike him though), he should only fight like once a year for his career longevity's sake.
I get it though, there is bills to pay, but all this fight is gonna accomplish is getting him knocked out stiff (less likely) or having him take a beatdown for three rounds that takes another year or two out of his career. I don't know, guess I could be wrong and Hooper could have magically improved his striking a ton, but I don't believe it until I see it. The fact that he is fighting so soon after being two minutes away from losing to Peter Barnett suggests to me that whoever controls his career aren't the smartest strategist. Then again, what do I know, I'm just a degenerate punter who can't even turn up a profit...
At least Peterson isn't exactly the most technical striker or biggest power puncher so it probably won't be as bad as the Caceres fight, but similarly Peterson is a very competent grappler so it seems unlikely Hooper catches him with anything. Little inkling of a doubt comes from fact Peterson has been on the shelf for a while, but it might actually have done good for the guy. He needs a big win to start to really ascend through the ranks.
I expect this to be really sloppy striking match with the more experienced and skilled stand-up fighter to clearly win. So does Hooper have any path to victory? Well, to be fair, he is much taller than Peterson and Peterson isn't hard to take down. As much as I don't see Peterson getting subbed for the first time in his career, Hooper will be able to grab hold of him in the clinch and probably score a few takedowns. Still all in all Hooper isn't some top control specialist so I wouldn't think the probability of decision via controlling the position is very highly likely. If Peterson fights smart he will keep his boxing tight and high volume and try to avoid too many clinch situations.
Peterson isn't any worse striker than the guys Hooper has faced before, and every guy has given Hooper beatdown on the feet before getting subbed. Fluke KO for Hooper isn't a high probability either, cause even though Peterson is sloppy defensively, he is very durable and hasn't been KO'd since 2013.
Prediction: Steven Peterson
Confidence in winner: 4
Fares Ziam vs. Luigi Vendramini
Vendramini had rough introduction to UFC, facing Elizeu Zalewski Dos Santos in his debut and ending up finished. Ziam has had far more reasonable competition for a young prospect, facing Don Madge and Jamie Mullarkey. In the end both guys are still 1-1 in UFC coming into this fight. Ziam is a good outside striker, but got shut down in clinch in his UFC debut. He improved that for his next fight though to beat Jamie Mullarkey.
Still, there is only so much you can do and it's clear going forward that Ziam is going to still get beaten by guys who can wrestle. Ziam stuffed some takedowns and escaped couple of times when taken down, but as he faded he got easier and easier to takedown so a solid wrestler who plays top control well will easily take two rounds out of him, especially since it seems he isn't bigger KO threat on the feet. That backwards moving countering style is hard to sustain over a long fight.
Either way Vendramini isn't that wrestling style match-up for him. He does have some wrestling though and I do think that if this fight will go deep, grabbing some takedowns will give Vendramini chance to edge close rounds. KOing Ayari doesn't tell us a ton, particularly since it took a headkick to do it, but it still appears Vendramini might be the bigger KO threat.
All in all I do think Ziam will win the first round unless he gets blasted away with something big. Vendramini will have to get inside and I am really not sure how willing he is to fight a stalking pressure fight in the manner that Mullarkey fought - and Mullarkey still fell short anyway. At the same time, I do think Vendramini probably wins the last round, Ziam's style takes a lot of energy. If Ziam can slow the pace of the fight then sure, he can win all rounds, but all in all I would say this is a pretty close fight, underdog or pass kind of situation.
And of course its line exactly 50/50... So ehh, guess Vendramini due to more ways to win.
Prediction: Luigi Vendramini
Confidence in winner: 3
Carlos Felipe vs. Jake Collier
Collier has been tough one for me ever since his UFC return. The guy looked like a massive doughboy in his return when I was expecting a jacked middleweight, and then I overreacted thinking he is completely useless fat fuck just fighting out his contract or something, and he went out and won his next match. I don't rate Felipe as particularly good, but he is tough and throws a recent volume of boxing at you so he is good at beating lower-level guys in decisions.
I don't really know what happened to Collier between 2017 and now, but he went from lean and mean middleweight into a big cheeseburger eating motherfucker. Either way, in his last fight he showed he is still fit, throwing huge volume of strikes at a good technical proficiency. He also showed good durability. Aspinall made quick work of him, but Aspinall is hell of a fight to come back to after over 3 years off. Villante hits hard but Collier took all he dishes out, personally I don't think Felipe is as big of a KO threat.
So all in all we probably see three close rounds with lot of volume thrown, and in that I think Collier gets edge for simply having slightly more gas tank and versatility of strikes.
Prediction: Jake Collier
Confidence in winner: 3
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