UFC Fight Night 189 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai

I don't know. I lost all my trust on Jairzinho after his pedestrian performance against Gane, and actually that's how he has largely looked during his UFC career, just relying on big moments to win fights that he has been losing. The only decision he has won was early on in his career and even that was a split decision.

Sakai obviously got finished in his last fight, but that was the first KO loss of his career. All in all Sakai has been unspectacular but durable, so I think he pulls away to a decision victory here by slightly edging out rounds. Also if I am wrong, at least I am likely gonna be wrong via spectacular KO.

Prediction: Augusto Sakai

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Walt Harris vs. Marcin Tybura

I thought Tybura is shot when he got KO'd by Sakai, but since then the guy has ran 4 wins straight against very respectable opposition. Harris is someone you can also grind out, basically his whole win condition is early KO. 

Prediction: Marcin Tybura

Confidence in winner: 3

Roman Dolidze vs. Laureano Staropoli

Dolidze slow, over-relies on leg locks. Has good chance to pull something off early on but later on Staropoli will run with volume. Dolidze having size advantage certainly helps, but he looks too slow for the weight class so it's not as much of an advantage as one would at first think. Gonna go for cardio over size this time.

Prediction: Laureano Staropoli

Confidence in winner: 3

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza

Hard fight to predict, rising prospect who will probably turn out pretty good but has not quite put it together yet and former top fighter who is obviously past his best but how far gone is he? I think quite far gone actually, I wanted to pick Ponz but think this is one of those spots where you have to let go of picking him, he is just not the same guy and while Baeza might lose a decision if he doesn't fight well, he has enough power, skill and speed to expose Ponz if he indeed has slowed down.

Prediction: Miguel Baeza

Confidence in winner: 3

Dusko Todorovic vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Dusko is still my boy. I don't know much about this other guy aside the fact that he is jacked Obama, so I think I go with my boy here.

Prediction: Dusko Todorovic

Confidence in winner: 2

Tom Breese vs. Antonio Arroyo

Breese beat KB Bhullar cause... well of course he beat him, the guy didn't belong to UFC at all. Omari Akhmedov on the other hand might not be big name but definitely UFC level guy, and he subbed Breese. As for this fight... Arroyo is such a weird fighter. He should have easily beaten Deron Winn, but instead finds himself on a two-fight skid on a bad stylistic match-up.

So yeah I think Breese will do what Winn did to him.

Prediction: Tom Breese

Confidence in winner: 2

Montana De La Rosa vs. Ariane Lipski

Everyone and their grandma seems to be on DLR here. I have had tendency to underrate her and overrate Lipski. However it is hard to have any confidence in a fighter any more after she gets completely dominated in grappling by Antonina Shevchenko. 

While I don't think DLR is particularly high level fighter herself, she is definitely a step-up from the competition Lipski has been beating and actually has pretty sound fundamentals when it comes to MMA. So I guess I join the crowd picking her? As for how the fight goes, well Lipski likes to fight aggressively and recklessly with low IQ and is probably outmatched both on the feet and positionally in grappling too. Obviously Lipski is a real submission threat though if you do leave a limb hanging, but all in all De La Rosa wins here most of the time.

Prediction: Montana De La Rosa

Confidence in winner: 3

Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi

Latifi was too small as a light heavyweight and he will keep being too small at HW. I guess Latifi could put the grind on Boser to win a boring decision, but I think Boser is good enough at moving and much better striker to get some damage in every round to edge them. Problem is that even if Latifi manages to grind Boser for one round, he will run out of gas by the end of 2nd anyway so it's really hard for him to win a decision.

Think Boser is also offensively potent enough to finish late if Ilir indeed gasses. I dunno, pretty clear Boser pick for me, but I don't expect any value from the odds.

Prediction: Tanner Boser

Confidence in winner: 4

Francisco Trinaldo vs. Muslim Salikhov

Trinaldo is old but keeps being able to edge close fights against much younger fighters. Certainly has something left in the tank. Salikhov has been old reliable but at 36 he is starting to probably be past his peak as well. Who is more over the hill? I don't know but I would say prime vs. prime Salikhov would win here, and age and mileage-wise should be closer to his peak.

Still, Salikhov is quite easy to get down if you really pursue it and Trinaldo is good at grinding out close fights as mentioned. Still I have to go with my gut feeling that Trinaldo's age is finally gonna show and strongly lean on Salikhov here. He didn't perform that great in his last fight, but it was at least against elite competition.

Prediction: Muslim Salikhov

Confidence in winner: 2

Makwan Amirkhani vs. Kamuela Kirk

I don't think Makwan is as first round and bust as people think, but certainly he fades against guys who can really push the pace against him. I have also been reading in the Finnish media that his response to Barboza loss to was to put on more muscle which would further cut away from that cardio. I don't know, seems like he should hit the road more and not the weight room but it is what it is.

Kirk might be a newcomer but he seems like the kind of guy who could give Makwan issues. Good striking fundamentals and hits hard. What could give him problems is Makwan's wrestling and submissions, in his last fight Kirk was getting caught up in submission attempts. Makwan is probably gonna be better at finishing those than the guys Kirk has faced so far.

I actually think Amirkhani rd 1 sub might not be a bad play here. I usually stay away from such specific plays but I dunno, it might be Amirkhani's best chance here. Then again the odds for it might not be that great given about half of Makwan's wins are rd 1 subs.

Prediction: Makwan Amirkhani via Rd 1 sub (no moneyline pick)

Confidence in winner: 3

Alan Patrick vs. Mason Jones

Jones put on a great fight against extremely difficult opponent in Mike Davis in his debut, and now gets a considerable drop in competition against Patrick. This should be a great chance for the prospect to truly stamp his presence in the UFC. 

That being said, you'd be foolish to think this is an easy fight for Jones. While Patrick is worse fighter than Davis is, stylistically this is bad match-up for Jones. His grappling has not really been tested - Davis might be elite fighter, but he is more than willing to just box with you, whereas Patrick will pursue pretty much only grappling here. 

Just cause Patrick had a poor performance last time doesn't mean that he won't be dangerous through his grappling approach. Green is an elite fighter in UFC and few guys will be able to replicate what he did, Jones certainly isn't that type of fighter.

However I'm hesitant to really predict Patrick will top control his way to a comfortable victory either. He probably will score some takedowns in this match, but he usually loses positions in the ground and Jones, while his takedown defence might leave something to be desired, showed decent ability to get back on his feet. Patrick also has some conditioning issues, tends to fade as fights go deep. Even if he wins first two rounds via top control, Jones is sure to make it an ugly, high-pace fight that will have Patrick backers sweating in the third if he is gonna survive the late onslaught.

All in all both guys have clear paths to victory and I think both will have their moments here. Patrick hasn't finished anyone since 2013, so pretty much all KO upside is on Jones, and I think going into a decision it will be pretty close. I expect Jones to comfortably forward pressure and outstrike Patrick, so he will be winning rounds as long as it is on the feet, but as takedowns will make it closer Patrick has decent chance to snatch two rounds. I don't see Patrick being able to keep up the pace for three rounds though.

So I suppose I would line Jones as a reasonably big favorite in the end. I also think if Jones wins, it will be by domination, whereas Patrick is mostly winning close decisions. All in all Patrick is playable here if the odds are lopsided enough.

Prediction: Alan Patrick

Confidence in winner: 3

Manon Fiorot vs. Tabatha Ricci

We got Ricci coming in on short notice here from smaller weight class, with five inch height disadvantage and three inch reach disadvantage. If they were same sized, I would still think Fiorot has this on the feet quite clearly, but with the distance that Ricci has to cover it's absolutely imperative she gets this on the mat. She is pretty solid wrestler, but it's hard to impose that kind of game on a bigger girl who is strong and hits hard. 

Still, given this is a lopsided odds fight at low level women's MMA, one has to dread carefully. Fiorot looks like real deal but we have to consider the long odds possibilities here before laying chalk on her. Could Fiorot gas? Seems unlikely, but perhaps if this is more of a Ricci-type, grinding clinch fight. Could she get taken down and top controlled? It certainly seems possible as well.

I think there is very little to no value on Fiorot side here even though I think she will probably massacre Ricci. At those odds, you have to back the grappler and hope she can survive the stand-up to squeeze two rounds for a decision.

Prediction: Tabatha Ricci

Confidence in winner: 2

Sean Woodson vs. Youssef Zalal

Interesting fight, I was very high on both of these prospects when they first came to UFC but both have shown some dents in their game since. 

Woodson's stock honestly didn't drop too much from that Erosa loss. He was dominating that fight but Erosa managed to pull a rare performance where he remained standing after absorbing over 100 strikes and still kept pushing forward. Even then he was gonna lose a decision if he didn't catch that late submission.

That's the blueprint to beat Woodson, get on his face and grapple. It's tough to do on a guy that lanky and that good of a boxer. Zalal doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to really push you, but he does grapple and move very well and he is going to need all of that to have a chance against Woodson.

I think it's a good match-up to make, but I don't really see how Zalal wins here considering he lost last time around to a similar fighter. Choi might not be half the boxer Woodson is but he has length similarly and was able to keep Zalal under pressure, outstrike him and largely avoid the grappling. I expect same thing to happen here, Woodson does not hit as hard but he hits much more often. Zalal is much more willing to stand outside than Erosa as well so Zalal pretty much has only one way to win and that is to catch a submission. 

Would say pretty long odds for that, and I also don't see Zalal scoring enough takedowns for a decision, I think he might win last round if he can make Woodson fade towards the end, but even that's difficult. Woodson is pretty leg kickable, but don't know if Zalal will be the guy to expose that yet.

Prediction: Sean Woodson

Confidence in winner: 4 

Claudio Puelles vs. Jordan Leavitt

Two prospects with very little UFC experience so far face off. Puelles took an absolute beating in his UFC debut but pulled one of the famous comeback victories with late kneebar finish, whereas Leavitt's debut was smooth sailing as all he needed to do was to score a quick slam to KO faded Matt Wiman. All in all that leaves us kinda vague about how good Leavitt actually is.

As for Puelles, he faced one of the worst fighters in UFC in Marcos Mariano after his debut. The full distance fight will at least give us something to work with. Well... not much really. It was just the worst take down defence in UFC being taken down and top controlled through the rounds. 

All in all both of these guys are predominantly grapplers, can't really put too much stock on Puelles dominating Mariano and Wiman was always gonna get KOd anyway so this is gonna be low confidence pick either way.

In these situations I am largely going by impressions and the impression generally is that Puelles does lot more low-% moves and Leavitt seems more fundamentally sound, also seemed very cool-headed fighter in his debut so that's something that bodes well for him. I have him rated as the better fighter here, both are pretty poor strikers but Leavitt is positionally more sound wrestler, I would guess at least.

Prediction: Jordan Leavitt

Confidence in winner: 3