UFC Fight Night 190 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov

First real test for Gane, and I think everyone is salivating at the prospect of two technical heavyweights fighting a high-level kickboxing match... but it won't be like that, will it? If Gane has been smart, he has been drilling offensive wrestling like a motherfucker this camp. Volkov has skill and range, but not so great takedown defence, so it seems plain obvious to just top control him into a victory. 

Gane already has showed lot of willingness to play grappling in the past and if he really focused on that during this camp, he should be able to seal tight rounds here with takedowns. Still expect the fight to be largely close, but it still kinda feels like Gane has everything covered here. 

Volkov has the best chance of anyone to outstrike him, but even if he does, Gane will just pursue the takedowns or clinch - but might not even need to if he is too good for Volkov anyway. There is a chance of that happening too, but it would be very impressive if Gane dominates a rangier Volkov even in striking. So yeah, all in all not expecting that, but Gane having advantage in wrestling makes him a clear pick nonetheless here for me. 

Prediction: Ciryl Gane

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Tanner Boser vs. Ovince St. Preux

Boser turns around quickly after that embarrassing loss to Latifi. St. Preux kinda has the same path to victory as Latifi, but he just doesn't seem as much of a willing grappler, whereas for Latifi wrestling is only way to deal with anyone at heavyweight cause he is so short. 

So I guess for consistency's sake I have to be on Boser here, since I picked him against Latifi and arguably Boser should have gotten the decision there. I still call it embarrassing cause Boser really should have done much better. Either way with OSP there is the added percentage of him fighting kinda dumb which will certainly help Boser. Boser's only major flaw is getting top controlled, aside that he is pretty solid fighter.

Prediction: Tanner Boser

Confidence in winner: 2 

Raoni Barcelos vs. Timur Valiev

Sure, let's have high-level prospects kill each other before anyone ever hears of them, rather than matching them up against ranked guys with some name so they could make name for themselves. Extremely high level guys both of these. Either way one of them will have a setback in their rise to the top here since they are facing each other.

Feel like out of these two Barcelos is the much more potent finisher both in stand-up and on the ground, but I would expect Valiev's pace make it a close fight nonetheless. Getting first or second round via top control would be great but just feel like Barcelos might snap him up with something or sweep him if he tries that. Still it might be close enough to Valiev to get a 2-1 here. Still, finishing and durability upside is on Barcelos side so I lean on him strongly here.

Line is too wide though so just a small stab at Barcelos.

Prediction: Raoni Barcelos

Confidence in winner: 3

Andre Fili vs. Daniel Pineda

This doesn't seem very reasonable match-up. Guess Fili is in the tail-end of his prime, but he is still in his prime, and he is a high-level contender. Pineda on the other hand... well at his best he is close to that level, but he is still more of a journeyman, and he is definitely past his peak already. The Swanson fight clearly showed us that Pineda has only one round of gas tank.

Fili is a bit chinny, so early on Pineda has a chance here, but all in all he should be so much more skilled and have so much more volume overall that he should easily win this after round one, and I personally think there is a good chance he wins the first round as well. 

Prediction: Andre Fili

Confidence in winner: 4

Tim Means vs. Nicolas Dalby

I dunno, I don't have really a strong feel about this fight. I guess generally speaking, Means isn't as shot as I think he is, nonetheless he has been finished twice in his last five fights. As for Dalby, he is not spectacular anywhere, but he is alright on all ranges and is tough so... pretty close to 50/50 this one.

Means is a volume puncher so obviously his path to victory is to impose his striking on Dalby, whereas Dalby probably needs to add a lot of clinching to win rounds. Dalby isn't big KO threat but I do think simply because of Means' age and the fact he has been KOd couple of times there is some chance of that, but Dalby also was taken out by Ronson and is not much younger.

Lean on Dalby I guess? Probably can get a close but ugly victory similarly to how he beat D-Rod. 

Prediction: Nicolas Dalby

Confidence in winner: 2

Renato Moicano vs. Jai Herbert

Don't know why but I find myself wanting to pick Herbert here. Let's be analytical though, Moicano has this if he just grapples. On the feet though he is chinny and I figure it would be close, Herbert is a pretty good striker... but a bit chinny himself.

So I guess analytically speaking it's probably 55/45 on the feet but with Moicano probably pursuing grappling at some point, it's closer to 80/20 in the end. I don't know, I would take a shot on Herbert on big enough odds, but Moicano can win this fight in many ways.

Prediction: Renato Moicano

Confidence in winner: 3

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Danilo Marques

Nzechukwu is physically gifted, but is there anything else? Marques is pretty bad, but guess I under-estimated him twice already and he is a competent grappler after all. Craig subbed Kennedy, so I guess I kinda hard to expect Marques to do the same, even though he is nowhere near the same fighter. Nonetheless Kennedy is a big lumbering guy, not exactly the kind of guy who can avoid grappling well. Once it's in that world, expect Marques to take control. 

It might be weird fight though, hard to be confident either way.

Prediction: Danilo Marques

Confidence in winner: 2

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Michel Prazeres

Rakhmonov was very impressive in his debut fighting a top opponent, Prazeres is much easier opponent and way past his prime. Expecting a real showcase win from Rakhmonov here. Worth also noting that Prazeres has not fought in 2.5 years and at 39, that's a huge amount of time, he probably comes out looking like shit.

It's tough to bet ITD here considering Prazeres has never been finished, but there is such a wide skill in gap and strong chance that Prazeres shows up looking very old that it might very well be valuebet.

Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov & ITD

Confidence in winner: 5

Warlley Alves vs. Jeremiah Wells

You might say what you want about Alves, but he is a long time UFC fighter and pretty competent fighter. As for Wells, he seems one of these guys who is peripherally UFC level, capable of getting a win here and there against aged veterans or newcomers who aren't good enough. 

Wells is powerful and can definitely land something on Alves, but aside that this should be the veteran's fight to lose here. Feel like Lazzez who Alves dominated is a better prospect than Wells., and age-wise Wells is already post his prime despite not having a lot of fights.

Prediction: Warlley Alves

Confidence in winner: 3

Marcin Prachnio vs. Isaac Villanueva

Ike isn't very good, but he is tough and a decent puncher. Prachnio has no striking defence, but is dangerous offensively. Win or lose Ike hasn't seen a decision in 7 fights, and similarly Prachnio had 5 successive fights ending in first round before decisioning Roundtree. So... violence is on the menu. I just can't believe Ike took over a round to beat the worst fighter on the roster, at least Roundtree is kinda tough hitter if not the most intelligent or skilled fighter.

Prediction: Marcin Prachnio & ITD

Confidence in winner: 2

Julia Avila vs. Julija Stoliarenko

Avila blind bet. I mean I guess Stoliarenko can grind a decision with some ugly clinch fighting or catch a lucky armbar? Aside that, she isn't very good, probably not good enough for UFC level.

Prediction: Julia Avila & ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Charles Rosa vs. Justin Jaynes

Jaynes is a full fighter with all four of his UFC fights so far ending in a finish, unfortunately for him mostly as losses - three fight losing skid leaves him desperately needing a KO here. That's pretty much only way I see him winning this, cause although Rosa has been absolutely dominated twice in last three fights, it was via grappling heavy-approach that Jaynes cannot replicate, and Rosa is likely to have the gas tank advantage here as well.

Rosa has been KOd once in his career by absolutely top of the line boxer in Burgos. Jaynes is decent but not on that level, I expect Rosa to put in a solid grappling display here. Jaynes will have some early success, but ultimately fall short in a decision or get submitted late on. 

Prediction: Charles Rosa ML & Jaynes 1st round KO as back-up

Confidence in winner: 3

Yancy Medeiros vs. Damir Hadzovic

I wrote this one already, right? Let's see... Yeah I did. Let's see what I wrote.

"Medeiros is on a three fight losing streak and has been finished a few times in recent years. Chin looks to be going and the mileage is up there, so it's hard to pick him confidently against anyone. He is meeting another aging fighter on a small skid in Hadzovic. Hadzovic is 3-4 overall in UFC and will for sure face a cut if he loses this one. While older than Medeiros, Hadzovic doesn't have the miles on him that Medeiros has, having only been KOd once by Taisumov. 

Could we see more of a grappling Medeiros here? I think he is bit slow at this weight division for striking, but he still has some chin left cause he managed to make it to decision against Lando despite getting largely picked apart. Hadzovic doesn't have great grappling defence and Medeiros could pose some problems from distance.

If they do stand, there is always the chance Medeiros randomly dies, but he does have handy reach advantage as well, so I guess aside that the question is who of these two has the higher output. I would say Medeiros, but I am reserved to pick Medeiros in a volume kickboxing match because he doesn't defend punches very well.

All in all it's pretty close to pick 'em for me, with the lean to Medeiros in striking volume, grappling and reach advantage being offset by Medeiros having mileage on him."

Only thing to add here is whatever made Hadzovic pull out the first time is not a good look for him, so maybe I would lean on Medeiros here after all.

Prediction: Yancy Medeiros

Confidence in winner: 2