UFC on ESPN 25 Post-Fight Analysis

Another decent night of violence last time around, and I notched up a fourth winning event in last five. 

Main Card

My initial gut feeling for the main event had been KZ, as I didn't rate Ige as really a top level fighter, whereas KZ has always been a legit contender in the long-term. However seeing people picking Ige I did fall into the same group think, figuring he is past his prime already. Maybe he is, but so slightly that he still easily gets pasts someone like Ige. It was a dominant and comfortable display from Korean Zombie, never any doubt of him winning, and in hindsight a fairly obvious pick.

In the co-main event I was expecting a finish, but Spivak just isn't that aggressive or that much of a power puncher, also he played it safe with Oleynik, and you can understand why, the guy just is so dangerous when he gets hold of you. Solid stuff from Spivak, as for Oleynik it's pretty much retirement time, though I guess if you throw him against some total bottom tier heavyweight he can still win. 

Marlon Vera and Davey Grant went to war. Predictably Grant started strong, but Vera was too durable to really even get that hurt and as the fight progressed, Vera's great cardio took over more and more. We all want to see Vera in a five round fight now. By the end Vera sliced Grant up pretty bad with his elbows and won a clear decision.

The fight between Julian Erosa and Seung Woo Choi was always gonna be violence, and it was that as much as it lasted. Erosa got finished in just 90 seconds which made me think that I probably underrated Choi in my preview although I picked him. The guy is one to watch for sure.

Bruno Silva made quick work of Wellington Turman, despite the latter starting the fight very well with some top control. In the end Silva got on top and landed absolutely hellish ground and pound to put Turman completely out. That's back-to-back KOs for the 24-year-old, a bad sign for sure. Think getting cut by UFC would be a blessing in disguise as he could go back to regional scene to improve against lesser opposition and notch up a few wins.

Matt Brown and Dhiego Lima had something of a technical kickboxing fight where they largely exchanged leg kicks. Lima seemed to be getting the better of that, until Brown landed a punch on Lima absolutely clean out of nowhere, completely flat-line KOing him. If you had told me someone goes lights out here I would have bet on Lima, it's not a good look for a fighter in their prime to get KOd stiff by a 40-year-old. Lima might have been on his way to decision victory had that not happened, but really it was a poor performance when he didn't even really test Brown's chin at any point.

Prelims

Nicolae Negumereanu and Aleksa Camur had something of a hot mess of a fight. Camur had the more technical boxing, and largely stopped Negu's grappling attack, but he was still eating clean shots all through the fight. Negumereanu fought with that classic Chase Hooper striking defence, but it didn't matter as his chin held up and he kept walking through the shots returning fire. As someone on Twitter said, he won the fight purely on enthusiasm. Probably a fade for the future though...

Virna Jandiroba put in a great performance. I would still say pulling guard against someone who is trying to take you down is a questionable move, but it worked for her as she snatched the arm bar and messed up Murata's hand. The fight probably should have been stopped between the rounds, but it wasn't so Virna had more chance to show some questionable fight IQ as she didn't really push harder against opponent who clearly had compromised arm. You feel Virna could have gotten stand-up KO there if she really went after it.

Glad she didn't in the end and Murata was saved from her own toughness.

Khaos Williams showed that he is a pretty legit fighter against Matthew Semelsberger, though Semelsberger really failed to implement the kind of pressure that he needed to. Either way, it was still a high-volume fight all through the three rounds and Khaos showed no signs of slowing down at any point. Khaos did show some defensive deficiencies that he does need to work on to truly be a top contender.

Josh Parisian and Roque Martinez put on a proper fat guy fight, total war of attrition with both of them throwing a ton of volume in the clinch. Martinez had the volume overall, but judges scored the split for Parisian. Not a great decision all in all, perhaps Roque would have deserved to win there more, certainly put in the kind of fight that he needed to for the win.

I expected Joaquim Silva to start fast, but I didn't expect him to start fast like an idiot by running straight into a shot. 37 seconds and it was over with Ricky Glenn getting the KO. The night opened up with Casey O'Neill subbing the badly gassed Lara Procopio late on after losing the first round.

My picks

7 out of 12 picks right, but what really brought me to profit in the end was my ITD/FGTD bets, which is got 6 out of 10 right. I won over a bet in the end, and now have back-to-back winning events. Nice to get some good variance once in a while, but too early to think I have turned the corner with my losses. 

Best pick was probably Negumereanu, given his large odds, but that was a close fight and pre-fight on paper kind of a volatile fight, so probably even better pick was Marlon Vera. I don't know, lot of close picks that could have been the best pick but Vera performed pretty much exactly as expected.

Worst pick was easily Dan Ige, he just had nothing for KZ and in the end there was little reason even pre-fight to think that KZ would have trouble with him. When thinking more carefully no it, we were all just banking on KZ having lost a big step with age. Obviously wrong pick.

Last five events has been a decent run, but still the overwhelming feeling is that LOT OF VALUE is being left on the table. Hopefully can capture much more of it in the next event.