UFC 264 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 

Last time around when these two fought there were lot more questions hovering than this time. Primarily one wondered if we were going to get prime Conor back. I think it is safe to say now that no matter how much the casual fans admire Conor's physique online, it is safe to say we will never see the absolute peak Conor again.

That's not to say he won't win this fight or even could not capture the belt again. However it does mean that at this point, Conor is pretty much 1st round KO or bust. He doesn't have the gas tank to hang with the kind of pressure fighters Poirier, Chucky Olives and Khabib are. However, with Khabib out of the picture Conor just has to get past two hittable guys and he will be the champ again.

I would absolutely hate to see that though. Either way, last time around Poirier was the value pick, now the market has corrected to be about right. I didn't see the value pick last time around, and I still think Poirier is gonna struggle with Conor's boxing, but he obviously pulled off his path to victory last time around and there is no reason why he would not be able to do it again. At 155 Poirier absorbs punches much better than in their first fight, however he still does get hit too much.

As much as I don't expect to see prime Conor, I do think Conor is smart enough to adjust his gameplan just like he did for the second Diaz fight. Just like last time, Dustin will have to survive the very dangerous first round, and do so while still fatiguing Conor. Allowing Conor to take it slow and calculated could possibly make him have two or even three rounds of gas tank.

So Poirier will be getting on Conor's face, being there to be hit with those hard counters, and trying to survive to clinch and takedown Conor... So yeah, 50 % of the time Conor flat-lines Dustin in the first, the other 50 pretty much Dustin wears Conor out for a finish later on in the match. Very small percent of the time the fight goes to a decision either way.

It would actually be interesting if Dustin comes out very defensive and Conor also tries to pace himself and it becomes a very tactical fight. In that type of fight Conor could last five rounds and even win a decision.

All in all we know much more than last time around, and there is not much value in the odds. Dustin did not all the sudden turn into a bad match-up for Conor, so I already put some money on Conor at even money, but should drunk Irish gamblers push the price back down, Dustin might become playable. For me this is only slightly in Conor's favor, but I do hope I am wrong and that Dustin wins again.

Prediction: Conor McGregor & Conor McGregor Rd 1 KO/TKO

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson

Can Burns win here? Absolutely he can - he is a dangerous submission threat and has heavy power in his hands... Will he realistically win though? I don't know, it's tough to get hold of Wonderboy and its even harder to hit him clean. If Burns does manage that he will put Wonderboy out but I wouldn't wanna bank on that.

For longest time Thompson has been a top-3 fighter in the Welterweight division so hopefully I am not letting the fact that I think he should get title shot next cloud my judgment. I mean I think they should have thrown him at Usman next, it's a fresh style match-up for Kamaru and Thompson is already old. Still we haven't seen any obvious signs of decline from Wonderboy so we shouldn't think he will come out looking old suddenly here.

Think Burns isn't any better than Neal on the feet, so Thompson by domination in points for me.

Prediction: Stephen Thompson

Confidence in winner: 3

Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy

Tuivasa is a fighter, Hardy is an athlete. That's as simple as it is. Sure, anything might happen in a heavyweight fight, but I expect Tuivasa either to dispatch Hardy quickly or wear him out over the long haul. Hardy drowns in the deep waters. You might say he generally has trouble with guys who are wrestlers and grind him down, but Tuivasa showed in that Struve fight he can also grind if needed.

That might not even be needed cause I don't think it's unrealistic that Tuivasa just hurts Hardy on the feet. 

The odds aren't great though, almost making Hardy playable... Still I'm gonna go with Tuivasa.

Prediction: Tai Tuivasa & Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO

Confidence in winner: 3

Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya

Holly Holm is someone that is tough to look good against, but considering it was Aldana's big chance to leave an impression in the main event, it was a very underwhelming performance. It's been a year since that fight and now she missed the weight by a lot... I don't know, all in all it is not a good look for her.

I've seen people tipping Yana here and although I initially felt hesitant, I do think she is a bad match-up for Aldana. She can hang at distance, but likes a grinding clinch fight or working the takedowns. If Holm could take Aldana down, I don't see why Yana can't do it too. Yana is also well-conditioned to wear Aldana down. Still think it will be a close fight, probably decided by a 28-27 either way.

Prediction: Yana Kunistkaya

Confidence in winner: 3

Sean O'Malley vs. Kris Moutinho

O'Malley is not a title contender, but he is still very dangerous, high-level fighter who is being the Conor treatment here with a fighter who realistically doesn't belong in the UFC. 

It honestly looks like about as much of a lock here as it's possible. I mean I would just love the shitshow if Moutinho somehow wins but don't see any way it happens. Anything less than a highlight-reel finish on a Conor undercard would be an abject failure from O'Malley here.

Prediction: Sean O'Malley & Sean O'Malley ITD & Sean O"Malley by KO

Confidence in winner: 5

Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin

Griffin is at the tail-end of his prime, Condit way beyond his own, though I think beating veterans Brown and McGee is a solid performance and proves he isn't completely shot. Griffin is a different beat, still arguably a top level fighter. 

Easy way to beat Condit is just to put him on his back and top control, but I honestly don't expect Griffin to have the fight IQ or cardio to take that approach, not completely. Will probably take at least one round like that though, and I think he ought to be good enough on the feet to win most of the rounds standing up too so all in all this is Griffin by KO or decision here.

Prediction: Max Griffin

Confidence in winner: 3

Nico Price vs. Michel Pereira

Whatever happens, this probably won't go the distance. Pereira used to fight crazy too, but it's primarily cause Price tends to be kill or be killed kind of fighter, and while Cowboy could last the distance, don't think Pereira can, he just doesn't have the same kind of gas tank. Also, Pereira hits way harder so its more likely Price just gets KO'd here.

Still both guys will start dealing a lot of damage right away so it will be chaotic fight that can go either way. Pereira is the more skilled and is very good at managing distance, expect him to be able to limit the damage he takes early and punish Price as he is coming in. Obviously moving a lot on the outside when the other guy keeps pressing you will eventually exhaust you, particularly if Price manages to land some damage as well. Price Rd 3 probably isn't a bad shout, but I still expect Pereira to get him out of there before that.

Prediction: Michel Pereira & Pereira by KO/TKO & Niko Price R3

Confidence in winner: 3

Ryan Hall vs. Ilia Topuria

Perhaps the most avoided fighter in the UFC faces one of the biggest prospects in the division. I dunno it's hard to call Hall a tough opponent when his best wins are Elkins, 2018 BJ Penn and Artem "The GOAT" Lobov. Yet he is a problem with his guard, leg locks and human backpack mode. Elkins he mostly beat with just kicking the shit out of him...

Still Hall does lot of fundamentally unsound stuff on the feet. I think Topuria might have the skill and athleticism to punish him that more than Elkins could. This is a lot tougher fight for Hall. My only worry is that Topuria is too willing to play on the ground with Hall, but at the same time I think that to beat him, you do have to enter the guard sometimes at the end of the rounds or punish him for rolling for leg. 

It's a good fight for the prospect cause the worst thing that's gonna happen is that he gets subbed, at least certainly hope he doesn't get his leg completely mangled. 

It's also worth noting that although we have hardly seen Hall fight, the guy is already 36, and Topuria hits hard. I don't think Topuria by KO is a bad shout here, though I do think it's more likely to go the distance if Hall doesn't sub Topuria.

Prediction: Ilia Topuria & Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO & Ryan Hall via Submission

Confidence in winner: 3

Trevin Giles vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Seems people think Giles is the side here but... I don't know. He is a guy who makes mistakes and wins the hardest way possible if he wins at all. Du Plessis had a rough debut until he found the KO, but the guy has solid record and it didn't seem like he makes as much bad fight IQ decisions like Giles.

I guess all in all Giles is more battle-tested and should have the advantage here, but I can't trust him to not make this a harder fight than it should be. Du Plessis is dangerous enough to capitalize on any mistake, though it's still early to say if he will replicate the high finish rate from the regional scene in the UFC level. 

I certainly wouldn't have Giles here if he is clear favorite, but let's see the odds before deciding. 

Well he is underdog so I guess I will have to pick him considering he is the more tested side, but I don't like doing it.

Prediction: Trevin Giles

Confidence in winner: 1

Jennifer Maia vs. Jessica Eye

Nope, not gonna tape it, don't give a shit, low-level women's MMA. But I have to give a pick, so I will say that Maia looked much better than expected against Shevchenko, whereas Eye seems to be fighting at this point primarily to promote her onlyfans. Probably still gonna be close fight to a decision if Maia doesn't get a quick sub.

Prediction: Jennifer Maia

Confidence in winner: 2

Omari Akhmedov vs. Brad Tavares

Pretty interesting fight between two journeymen who should be in their prime and actually looked pretty good in their last outings. There was no surprise Akhmedov beat Breese, but the kind of mauling he put on Breese did take us a little bit by surprise. As for Tavares, he bounced back from getting KO'd by beating Antonio Carlos Jr. via decision.

He also looked very impressive in that fight, particularly with the way he consistently stuffed all the Shoeface's takedowns. Seems like Tavares would be stylistically the ultimate antidote to Akhmedov. He isn't bad striker, but he does not throw a ton of volume on the feet and generally relies on top control to win fights. Seems unlikely he is gonna enjoy much of it against Tavares.

Still it's hard to pick against Omari here either. Tavares is a good striker but he shouldn't be completely outmatching Akhmedov on the feet, and even if Akhmedov doesn't take him down, he should be able to put a lot of grinding pressure on Tavares. Omari has been so reliably beating tough guys on decisions that I am not inclined to pick against him even in a fight against a guy who should be able to stop his wrestling. 

Don't think there is a high chance of either of them finishing each other, so we probably see a close decision. Let's have a look at the odds and take the underdog.

Prediction: Omari Akhmedov & Tavares R3

Confidence in winner: 2

Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Jerome Rivera

I guess they figure no one turns up for the early fights since they put some very low-quality fights to start the card.

Both of these guys are pretty bad, but Rivera is chinny and can't defend takedowns. Zhumagulov got a lot of favorable decisions in the Russian scene after bad fights, but still, he was fighting championship level competition and able to hang. Rivera has not been able to hang at all so far. He is young and can still improve, but it's not been enough time for him to have completely turned his game around. Zhalgas gonna grind out an ugly win here.

Prediction: Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Confidence in winner: 3

Yaozong Hu vs. Alen Amedovski

Can't understand UFC's logic to start the biggest card of the year with probably the absolute worst fight they could put together. Like I dunno maybe Khadis v Vinicius Moreira would be worse but this definitely is up there...

To be fair to Hu, we have no idea how well he will do, he might have had a rough start to his UFC career, but he is still only a 26-year-old dude that has not fought in almost three years, so he could show up looking like a completely different fighter. I mean he has been on the shelf longer than he had been fighting since his pro debut to his last fight. That obviously means some ring rust, but it also means a lot of potential for improvement.

As for Amedovski, well this is the guy who made John Phillips look like the GOAT... who then in turn made Khamzat and that Korean guy look like GOATs. The guy has power but also is defensively vulnerable and not that hard to take down. I don't think it would be that out of the question to even say Amedovski is worse version of Hu's last opponent.

So all in all Hu should be able to outwrestle Amedovski if necessary, has a hell of a chin that makes Amedovski's only win condition unlikely, and might have even improved his striking in the meantime to such extent that he might outstrike Amedovski as well. 

Prediction: Yaozong Hu

Confidence in winner: 3