UFC on ESPN 26 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Islam Machachev vs. Thiago Moises

Islam should fight top contender. People are finally waking up to the fact that he is Khabib's heir as one of the best fighters in the division, hence he should be fighting someone who gets him into actual title talks where he probably already belongs. Moises... well who even knows him realistically? The guy is good and tricky match-up, but Islam should have him covered everywhere, expect Islam to be safely but unspectacularly edging rounds as he usually does. 

ML odds are pretty wide so no play there.

Prediction: Islam Machachev by submission or points

Confidence in winner: 4

Co-Main Event: Marion Reneau vs. Miesha Tate

Well, I was gonna pick Tate here, simply cause Reneau is also old and she was never elite, but I think others have spoken some sense to me. Tate wasn't some technical savant when she was fighting, she grinded her way to ugly wins and has been gone for years. The odds would suggest she is some nailed-on winner here, though she does look to be in great shape...

Despite being old Reneau has been out there making fights close with decent competition. She has been active and shown that she is still able to hang, so this probably isn't as much of a no-brainer win for Tate as people might think it is. I don't know, Tate probably 30-27s this with lay-and-pray tactics, just don't know how much I can trust on her after such a long time.

All in all no strong lean here, but think you have to bet the number on Reneau all things considered even if I think that at best case she probably loses a split decision here. Minbet on Reneau.

Prediction: Marion Reneau

Confidence in winner: 1

Jeremy Stephens vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Lot of questions here... Gamrot's last fight was kinda weird, but in the end he got the KO, guess cause Holtzman just was too old and too shot. I don't know, that might be the case here too with Stephens. Stephens got brutally KO'd last time around, is 35, has a ton of miles from a long career at top level, and has not found a win since 2018. As much as I don't rate Gamrot as highly as I rated him before Kutateladze match, I still think he is a guy on the way to the top end of the rankings.

It's like I want to bet on Stephens considering he is by far the more battle-tested one, but we just don't know how Stephens will look at his age and after the kind of finish he took last time around. Just might be a shell of his former self. On the other hand, I don't wanna bet on Gamrot cause to be it seems like Stephens on his A-game just defends the takedowns and outstrikes him.

So perhaps we roll the dice and hope the vintage Stephens shows up one more time? 

Prediction: Jeremy Stephens

Confidence in winner: 2

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Vieira is always RD 1 sub or bust. Well, Stoltzfus isn't so great so perhaps Vieira will still have something in the tank for second round finish if need be, but think I go all the way with the gamble here and try to pick exact method of victory.

Prediction: Rodolfo Vieira R1 Sub

Confidence in winner: 3

Gabriel Benitez vs. Billy Quarantillo

Hard hitter vs. someone who hits a lot. Quarantillo will get on your face and push the pace, while Benitez will try to move backwards and blast him with powerful kicks and punches. 3 out of Benitez's last four fights ended in a finish, whereas 2 out of Billy Q's last four ended in a finish... so all in all I like FDGTD here, don't mind basically flipping a coin at bit better odds than coinflip. 

Benitez will be the one finishing early here, but I can see him drowning into the pace of Quarantillo and Quarantillo finishing late. I like Billy Q at dog odds here, those guys who just walk you down are always tough to beat even if you have them covered in skill.

Prediction: Billy Quarantillo & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3

Daniel Rodriguez vs. Preston Parsons

D-Rod welcomes a new prospect into the UFC. Don't really know much about Parsons, but I do know D-Rod is usually very reliable pick. High volume, solid striking, durable, all of that good stuff. Parsons has never seen a decision in 11 fights, in fact he is yet to even see a third round. Parsons has a 4 fight win streak, but against pretty rough competition. You really can't bet for the untested guy here, especially against such a reliable guy like D-Rod, who has never been finished in his career despite facing tough competition.

Parsons probably has some early success but perhaps fades as the fight goes on? Reasonable chance he sees the first decision of his career here, though if he gasses bad enough D-Rod is gonna finish him here. 

Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez

Confidence in winner: 4

Amanda Lemos vs. Montserrat Ruiz

Pretty no-brainer here, Ruiz is an awful one-trick pony, somehow that one trick got her the win first time around but Lemos is for one pretty good but also extremely potent finisher. Only one time has Lemos won via decision, all her other wins are either KOs or submissions. There is such a wide disparity between these women that Lemos probably gets it done without judges help this time.

Prediction: Amanda Lemos & Amanda Lemos ITD

Confidence in winner: 5

Khalid Taha vs. Sergey Morozov

Taha was hopelessly outmatched against Barcelos, but the fact he took the three round beating and never gave up is definitely worth something in and of itself. Morozov is lot more reasonable match-up for him than one of the best guys of the division, and Taha should have better chance to impose his power and athleticism on Morozov.

Honestly as dominant as Barcelos was, I still think it was a good showing from Taha to be even be kind of in the fight for the most of it. 

As for Morozov, he faced the hottest prospect of the division and did respectably well, but hurt and dominated in the 2nd round for a finish. So all in all Taha's last performance was much better. Morozov is athletically unremarkable but has solid skills everywhere, he should be able to hang with Taha just fine. All in all would expect this to be a close fight, with Taha probably having Morozov hurt some point of the first half of the fight, but Morozov taking over as the fight goes deeper.

Close fight, no strong read so gonna try small punts on Taha.

Prediction: Khalid Taha & Khalid Taha ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Miles Johns vs. Anderson Dos Santos

I don't know, I am really not getting a strong read either way here. Johns probably has the wrestling and power advantage, but ADS is better grappler and probably bit faster. Still think Johns is probably too good to get caught in submissions and Dos Santos' grappling instincts will work against him to make him probably engage too much in the grappling realm and end up top controlled to a decision.

I don't know really. Johns fights tend to be kinda low output striking matches and I think we are very highly likely to get something like that, which would make this the kind of fight that is always gonna be a close decision. All in all no great bets here, gonna have a tiny punt on Johns.

Prediction: Miles Johns

Confidence in winner: 2

Francisco Figueiredo vs. Malcolm Gordon

Gordon had a rough start to his UFC career, gotten already finished twice in the first round, but you have to feel he is the side here cause Figueiredo's brother is riding more on the name than actual skill. Still, it's tough to pick a chinny guy against fighter with lot of finishes. Gordon only reached the highest level, but already has four losses by KO, which is not a great look at this small of a weight class, just points to severe problems in ability to take a shot.

Figueiredo went full distance with Jerome Rivera last time... Rivera pretty much showed that he is probably pound for pound the worst male fighter in the UFC... well no, Vinicius Moreira and Khadis are still much worse but nonetheless, Rivera is up there as a guy who was nowhere near good enough to be fighting at this level... but Rivera took one round unanimously from Fig cause Fig gassed.

So he is gassy and he is nowhere near the power puncher his brother is. On the other hand, he does have better grappling but doesn't really do great job in retaining top control.

So Gordon has a path to victory here by tiring Fig out but... I just in the end can't trust a guy who reacts so poorly to getting hit as Gordon does. The guy has been finished twice in a row in the first for a reason. No value in Fig moneyline, but Fig ITD doesn't seem too bad.

Prediction: Francisco Figueiredo ITD

Confidence in winner: 2

Alan Baudot vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

Two guys who have never gone to decision in a low-level heavyweight bout. Basically this is a coin-flip cause both can hurt each other, but Nascimento has a huge advantage on the ground so that makes this more like 65-35... Every fight starts standing though. 

After being demolished last time, I do think Nascimento will urgently look for a takedown for a club-and-sub finish. He should get it cause Baudot is so bad, but Baudot will try to repeat what Daukaus did and he certainly has a chance with the power he has. 

All in all not a complicated fight, FDGTD is pretty much guaranteed here, I do think Nascimento is much the better fighter but Baudot might just send him to shadow realm before that.

Prediction: Rodrigo Nascimento by Submission & FDGTD 

Confidence in winner: 3