UFC on ESPN 27 Post-Fight Analysis

I got pretty good results on last night's card, but the usual pattern of winning big in the prelims and then losing it on the main card continued. This time though I would say bad jugding played a part in the losing end to the event.

Main Card

I honestly thought Sandhagen had that 3-2, and most of the people seem to agree with me, but it was not gonna be my night for the main event pick once again. Still both Sandhagen and TJ looked very impressive. Sandhagen repeatedly showed that he could stop TJ Dillashaw overwhelming him with wrestling and when taken into the deep waters, he could swim just fine, dealing damage to TJ consistently all through the fight.

At the same time Dillashaw did have some success both in wrestling and striking, and showed tremendous toughness and skill to overcome a knee injury and bad cut in his eye early on. It was a close fight but I don't think just being able to lean on a guy on the fence should count for as much as a lot of clean strikes landing all through the fight, but it is what it is. Dillashaw gets the decision, while Sandhagen definitely did most of the damage in the fight.

In the chaotic co-main event Kyler Phillips kept landing hard shots early and rocking Paiva over and over again. The fight was very close to getting finished, but somehow only one judge had the round 10-8. That cost me another lost bet as Phillips gassed in subsequent rounds and thus took a majority decision loss. That definitely should have been draw at least. Good on Paiva to rally to win, but he was definitely saved by the bell in that match.

Darrick Minner turned out to be the same first round or bust fighter we always thought he was, and Elkins showed he isn't completely shot yet. It was my worst read for the night, but Minner R1 bet was very live and I indeed think Minner could have gotten Elkins out of there early if he, instead of wasting effort into that guillotine over and over again, just invested more into ground and pound. Elkins was badly dazed for few moments there, but got some time to recover because of Minner's constant choke attempts.

Not only that, they were waste of energy and Minner was completely gassed in the second, didn't have energy to even try to escape and Elkins pounded him into a finish. I do still think Minner might have had a chance to win a decision there if he didn't go for so many chokes, used more ground and pound and was generally just fighting more economically. But that's not who he is, so that's just pointless hypothetical talk. Good on everyone who picked Elkins. 

Maycee Barber fought a weird, cautious fight where it seemed she clearly lost first two rounds. Maverick did fade in the third and Barber did finish strong, but the consensus seemed to be that it was too little too late. Well, not according to judges and another winning bet was snatched from my hands by judges. Oh well, low-level women's MMA, these things happen, but it's bad variance to lose 3 bets because of bad judging in one event. 

Randy Costa came out of the gate strong and was just jabbing Yanez to death, hurting him in the process. In the end though he set a pace for himself that he could not keep, faded in the second and Yanez took over to finish him just before the half-way of the second round. Rough first round for Yanez, but keeps his win streak going.

Prelims

I really expected Brendan Allen to use his wrestling to beat Punahele Soriano, and I think everyone would agree messing around with Puna's power is not the best fight IQ, but can't really complain too much when Allen looked great on the feet, arguably outstriking Puna in all rounds. He did eat some hard powershots, but his chin held up whenever needed and he brutalized particularly Soriano's body. 

I expected very close fight between Imavov and Heinisch, but ended up siding with Imavov as he almost pulled off the win in a similar match-up last time around. This time there was no almost about it, very mature showing from Imavov, simply having too good hands for Heinisch and stopping the guy in second round. Very impressive stuff, even Gastelum couldn't get Heinisch out of there like that.

Mickey Gall left nothing to chance against Jordan Williams, hurting him first in the feet and then going to his bread and butter to choke Williams out. Fight lasted less than 3 minutes and didn't really have any bright spots for Williams. Gall looked improved in striking, it looks like it's finally starting to come together for him. 

Consensus seemed to be that first round would be Ewell's round to lose, but Arce took the fight right to him right from the beginning, not afraid to exchange hands. It was supposed to be Ewell's strong round, but instead it was very competitive and Arce probably won it. After that, it was always gonna be downhill for Ewell, who tends to fade in fights anyway, and Arce outstriking him saw damage accumulate quickly to the point he was finished before second round ended. Some might argue early stoppage, but I think it was good eye from the ref, Ewell didn't need to take those few extra shots to go unconscious, the fight was not gonna turn around.

Sijara Eubanks ITD was my huge bet for the night and although Eubanks fought patiently, it was never in doubt. Size, skill and experience disparity was clearly on show and Reed got badly fucked up in just a round. Rare to get better than even money for such a certain bet. 

Diana Belbita and Hannah Goldy had an entertaining if not very skillful fight. Belbita was enthusiastic as usual, but also bit overzealous and making lot of mistakes. It didn't matter though cause Hardy is absolutely terrible and has no defence. Don't think either of these girls will have long stints in UFC.

My picks

7 out of 11 right, with only one prop (Yanez/Costa FDGTD) hitting. That resulted in a pretty whopping 6.5 bets worth of winnings, but I still was left feeling underwhelmed cause it could  have been so much more. Bad varience with decisions (3 out of my 4 wrong picks were bad decisions) and bad read on the Minner/Elkins fight cost me potential 10+ bet winnings. 

Very simple best and worst bets this time, I filled my boots with Sarj ITD and it paid off to the fullest, one of my biggest ever MMA winnings, though think McKinney R1 still eclipses that one. Either way, worst pick was clearly Minner ML, I still think Minner R1 was a good bet and was close to land, but it seemed very unlikely Minner would ever win a decision with Elkins if it got out of first, unless he became a smarter fighter. 

My last six events have five winning events and only one losing one, with two biggest wins combining for 17 bets of profit and other four pretty much evening out to break-even. I have been doing generally solidly lately, but I suppose it is too early to start thinking that I am starting to figure this thing out.