UFC on ESPN 27 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Cory Sandhagen vs. TJ Dillashaw

TJ is the former champ for a reason, and hence he can never be counted out, but I do think this is a pretty bad match-up for him, especially coming off of a multi-year layoff and probably having some ring-rust after so long away. Sandhagen outstrikes pretty much anyone in current bantamweight division, he is basically modernized, more fluid version of Dom Cruz with less grappling but more power.

Dom Cruz who of course famously gave TJ one of his few losses. However, while there is some questionmarks about TJ after long layoff, there is some of them about Sandhagen too, primarily we have not seen him in a five round fight yet, we haven't seen him in really deep waters yet. Aside that though, his striking cannot be complained about, and his only UFC loss to date is against an excellent wrestler/grappler in Aljo. 

Indeed I think TJ will have to adopt a wrestling-based approach here to win this fight, and he definitely has the skillset to do so, but I do think there will be extended striking in this bout too, and Sandhagen should be slick enough to connect hard on TJ a few times. 

All in all both are difficult challenge for each other to overcome, but I think I go for the more active, fresher guy here.

Prediction: Cory Sandhagen

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Kyler Phillips vs. Raulian Paiva

Should be competitive, but Phillips has the size, reach and probably is bit better everywhere as well. I would expect Song to be much better fighter than Paiva, and Phillips edged a close fight there. It might be close enough for some funky decisions, but would expect Phillips to edge two rounds here and win a decision most of the time.

Prediction: Kyler Phillips

Confidence in winner: 3

Darren Elkins vs. Darrick Minner

I just kinda feel like Elkins is kinda shot. Yeah he won last time around but... Garagorri isn't great either. Minner is kinda one round or bust... or that's what we thought anyway, until last time he started blazing fast like he always does... but then never slowed down and absolutely dominated Charles Rosa.

I suppose it is too early to jump to the conclusion that since becoming a UFC mainstay, Minner is a renewed fighter, but that does not even matter here. I think just that early blitz will be enough to get Elkins out of there. And if not, I suppose Minner can get two rounds against a guy who lost an UD in a predominantly striking fight against Ryan Hall.

I think in 2021 Rosa is a better fighter than Elkins anyway, so Minner should be pretty solid pick here.

Prediction: Darrick Minner & Darrick Minner R1

Confidence in winner: 4

Miranda Maverick vs. Maycee Barber

Blech. Two pretty raw female talents again, both relying more on physicality than skill. I guess Maverick has more of the skill, but Maycee might just bullrush takedown her three times and win a decision... Or something wild happens in striking exchanges. All in all I would line Maverick as quite clear favorite, but it's low-level women's MMA, can't trust these girls.

Definitely feel like if Barber is a clear dog, which would not be surprising giving her last couple of results, you would have to play her since Maverick is pretty untested at this point too. With close odds Maverick would be an easy pick, but let's see.

Odds are right I guess, so small play on Maverick and nothing else.

Prediction: Miranda Maverick

Confidence in winner: 2

Adrian Yanez vs. Randy Costa

Costa will try to blitz Yanez, but Yanez is much the better fighter in the long stretch. Should be a violent fight either way, but feel more confident Yanez is gonna pull away and eventually find a finish. R1 Costa might be playable here though.

Prediction: Adrian Yanez & Randy Costa R1 & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 4

Punahele Soriano vs. Brendan Allen

This should be Allen's fight to lose. Sure, his striking defence leaves lot to be desired, but I don't think he hangs around on the feet for a long time, expect couple of exchanges and then Allen gets the takedown and weathers the first round which is pretty much only time Soriano is dangerous. 

Might have a stab at Punahele R1 though, gotta take a look at the odds. Think Allen top controls his way to a victory, but anything might happen in those early exchanges. Punahele has serious power.

Prediction: Brendan Allen & Punahele Soriano R1

Confidence in winner: 3

Nassourdine Imavov vs. Ian Heinisch

Heinisch is a weird fighter to predict, cause he is actually pretty solid everywhere. Good explosive striking, alright boxing, even some decent grappling ability as well. Very good athlete, but has the fatal flaw of kind of fading. His cardio isn't terrible, but he fades enough to lose fights. 

Gastelum laid out the blueprint to beating him pretty well, walk him down, box him up, win the scrambles and get your wrestling going to make Heinisch tired. 

Imavov is much worse fighter than Gastelum obviously, but he is decent striker and has good cardio. Still I think Heinisch can start hard to win first round and then luck out a takedown later to lay-and-pray for another round. I mean I would expect something similar to Imavov's last fight where he is doing well at the end, but can't find a finish and loses close decision. Still I would have him here if the odds are good, but I do favor Heinisch to win this.

Odds are about right, but I feel a small punt on Imavov is a better play than laying chalk on Heinisch.

Prediction: Nassourdine Imavov

Confidence in winner: 2

Mickey Gall vs. Jordan Williams

Williams did well to get this far with diabetes, but UFC level should be too good for him. Guess Gall is kinda peripherally UFC level fighter as well, but think he wins here pretty much anyway he wants, Williams doesn't have a great gas tank or striking defence, and I think Gall always has strong grappling base to work off of even if it didn't really show against Mike Perry.

It would of course be a feel-good story if Williams would win, but I just don't think it will happen. Either way Gall isn't exactly the kind of guy you can exactly rely on either, he has had some pretty poor performances in UFC, sometimes he just shows up not looking good at all.

Prediction: Mickey Gall

Confidence in winner: 2

Julio Arce vs. Andre Ewell

Arce has been gone for a while but has pretty solid record up at featherweight, taking both Dawodu and Moraes to split decisions and KOing Julian Erosa. Ring rust might be an issue after nearly two years out, but on the flip side, since he is returning as a bantamweight the added size could help out.

Then again the faster opponents might also become an issue, and you don't get much faster than Ewell. Ewell is tough for anyone to deal with, at least for about a round. Unfortunately his ceiling has been limited by relatively poor gas tank and susceptibility to grappling.

Ewell is also very rangy bantamweight, so despite going down a weight division, Arce still finds himself at five inch disadvantage. 

Still I would favor him here, he has never been knocked out, he is durable and has a good output, and enough of a grappling offense to tire out Ewell if needed. I don't trust Ewell to be able to win two rounds, and Arce is unlikely to get KOd unless his cut was terrible. Just gotta get out of first and he will probably take over.

Prediction: Julio Arce

Confidence in winner: 3

Sijara Eubanks vs. Elise Reed

Sijara is better than her 6-6 record suggests, and showing up absolutely in peak condition for this next contest. I doubt it really helps her constant issue of having pretty much 1.5 rounds of gas tank and struggling with very good grapplers, but that should not matter here. Reed is inexperienced and much smaller. Should be pretty fast devastation.

Prediction: Sijara Eubanks ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Diana Belbita vs. Hannah Goldy

I looked at this fight and I'm like... well Goldy is gonna win it easy right, Belbita is awful? Then I watched tape on Goldy and... well this is a very rough fight in terms of skill level. Guess it will be a comedy of errors. Belbita actually has some skills but she has zero fight IQ, she finds a way to lose a fight that she would be winning. 

Can't trust either here. Goldy has no defence and keeps crossing her feet while moving, not even basic fundamentals right in footwork. Guess Belbita win this after a sloppy grappling match. Feel like I trust her more but you have to be a degenerate to be betting on this fight.

Prediction: Diana Belbita

Confidence in winner: 1

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