UFC on ESPN 28 Preview & Predictions

Rough card, Bellator is unironically better this weekend. Almost though of taking week off, but I have previewed every event since september 2019, so let's keep the streak going.

Main Event: Sean Strickland vs. Uriah Hall

Uriah can blast Sean out of there within first couple of rounds, but I do think Sean is good enough at deflecting shots and durable enough to take whatever Uriah dishes out, unless he hits him with a spinning back kick or something. Down the stretch the pressure will make Hall fade here. 

Prediction: Sean Strickland

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Kyung Ho Kang vs. Rani Yahya

Probably we will know very early on who will win. Kang has been off for a while, and Yahya is still dangerous submission threat and even if that doesn't workout, he can certainly ride out rounds via top control. However if the grappling attack does not succeed, I do think Kang can take over especially as the fight extends. Hard to pick him here though after such long lay-off.

Prediction: Rani Yahya / Yahya R1

Confidence in winner: 2

Cheyanne Buys vs. Gloria De Paula

Man this is a rough match. The girl who got defeated by one move over and over again and the girl who managed to lose to Frey in 2021. I guess Buys is overall better, hope De Paula doesn't know that throw...

Prediction: Cheyanne Buys

Confidence in winner: 1

Jared Gooden vs. Niklas Stoltze

Pretty close fight, Gooden is the pick here as underdog. Big and powerful guy who has lost last couple of fights, but against pretty solid opposition while looking not too bad. Not great defensively but powerful, so there is a reasonably good chance that someone gets finished here. Probably sloppy but violent match, both guys reasonably durable so FDGTD isn't exactly a lock. 

Prediction: Jared Gooden & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Bryan Barberena vs. Jason Witt

I really don't wanna pick anyone here, but I guess Barberena via KO? Nah, even that doesn't have enough odds. Well laying chalk on the moneyline doesn't feel good either. Barberena is the better fighter with a sound chin, but he is not exactly blowing Witt out here so it's hard to justify the odds. 

Witt has been blitzed out of there in a minute twice in his last two fights and beat a guy who absolutely was nowhere near belonging in UFC in between. So to pick someone like him you'd need big odds... but he is not completely blown out in the grappling realm either.

I think only remotely value resembling spot here is Barberena R1. Yeah he isn't big power guy but he has couple of relatively recent R1 KOs so if Witt's chin is as shot as it seems, it's worth a small shot.

Prediction: Bryan Barberena / Barberena R1

Confidence in winner: 2

Collin Anglin vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

Another glorified regional fight between Contender series fighters. Anglin probably shouldn't have won the decision in his Contender fight... I don't know, close I guess and he definitely had more left in the end, but it looked very rough on the feet at times. 

It looks like this might be a very similar fight since Melsik sprints out of the gate and tries to blitz you in 1st round, but fades considerably as fight goes one. So guess it's pretty 50/50 between Melsik R1 and Anglin R3.

Prediction: Melsik Baghdasaryan / Melsik R1 / Anglin R3 / FDGTD

Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Rafa Garcia

This one is really tough one. Even at his prime Gritz wasn't some skillful fighter, he would make it ugly and grind you out. Now at 35 after having taken the first KO loss of his career, having been blitzed by Alex Hernandez? It's tough to trust on him on a spot like this and the wide line reflects that. 

Garcia showed extremely good durability in his debut, but it is not necessarily a good thing that the best side of you that people have seen is durability. That being said, it wasn't like Nasrat was completely dominating him, he was just constantly step ahead and over the course of the fight that started to really show. Garcia still gave it as good as he was getting at times and kept good output to the end.

So I don't really see how Gritz wins here even if he successfully puts together his grinding fight style and fights like he always has. Think Garcia is just better and wins at least two rounds. 

Prediction: Rafa Garcia

Confidence in winner: 4

Danny Chavez vs. Kai Kamaka III

Could this be one of those fights where the better guy loses simply cause he is susceptible to the strengths of the other guy? Kamaka has the better skillset, pretty rounded, but he is shown some cardio and durability issues before. Chavez will come in blasting power shots and might just disintegrate his chin, and even if not he can probably get Kamaka limping. I don't know, I am on the fence with this one, let's look at the odds. I'd still like Kamaka as a decent sized underdog here.

Prediction: Danny Chavez

Confidence in winner: 2

Jinh Yu Frey vs. Ashley Yoder

Yoder's about as unreliable fighter as you can lay chalk on, but she has pretty solid top control and is the bigger, more athletic woman, whereas Frey is kind of past it already and undersized. Could be infuriating split like these kind of fights tend to be, but Yoder's much more likely to find a finish and win clear rounds.

Prediction: Ashley Yoder

Confidence in winner: 3

Ryan Benoit vs. Zarrukh Adashev

Adashev probably not as bad as everyone thinks, but Benoit ought to be better in every range here and has a good chance to find a finish over the course of the fight. Benoit has 3 losses in his last four, but one of them is a split loss against the current champ, another split loss in a higher weight class and finally somewhat controversial decision loss to Elliott. Except him to come out guns blazing to make sure another dodgy decision doesn't come up and traditionally Benoit has been very potent finisher. 

Prediction: Ryan Benoit/FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3

Philip Rowe vs. Orion Cosce

Rowe showed lot of good qualities in that loss against Green. Although Green pretty much laid out the blueprint on beating him, it's gonna be very tough one to replicate, very few guys are gonna have the durability and tenacity to do that. Cosce kinda plods forward, he has to fight more urgently to make Rowe fade like Green did. 

In terms of skills, I don't think Rowe has too big of an advantage, but he is 9 inches longer and that is massive problem for someone who is usually pretty content to stand and bang like Cosce is.

Prediction: Philip Rowe

Confidence in winner: 3 

Kommentit

Lähetä kommentti

Tämän blogin suosituimmat tekstit

UFC Fight Night 198 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate Don't know, don't care. Tate looked great last time around, but I don't know how much weight you can put on beating someone who was a career journeyman in her 40s. Vieira is step-up from that, although she isn't top level fighter either, she is at least closer to her prime and should be able to compete. General heuristic for me is that the game has evolved from 2015 days and that you can't come back to compete at elite level in this sport after being out, so let's go by that and pick Vieira. Prediction: Ketlen Vieira Confidence in winner: 1 Co-Main Event: Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady Brady is pretty good, but been unspectacular so far, just kinda tightly edging most of his opponents. Chiesa is far more battle-tested of the two and has the grappling edge here. It's gonna be a close fight, but if people are gonna be favoring Brady so heavily here, Chiesa ought to be quite easy pick. I don't really see Chiesa getti...
Lue lisää

UFC Fight Night 172 Preview & Predictions

I am exhausted, wrote almost all of these straight. Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez Sometimes when two people rematch there is reasons to think it won't go exactly like it went the first time, such as when Conor fought Diaz for the 2nd time, or the recent Volkanovski v Holloway rematch. This is not one of those times though, it's a fight where first time went pretty much how I called it and there is little reason to think anything changes this time around. Benavidez is the more intelligent, technical fighter, I suppose. He is also 35 years old and got KOd by Figueiredo last time around. Figueiredo is very powerful for the weight class and for his size, and his size is barely able to make 125, indeed which is why we are having this rematch, since he missed the weight last time around. So all the physical advantages are with Figueiredo, who also got chance to figure out the timing of Benavidez last time around, so won't need to feel around so much ...
Lue lisää

UFC Fight Night 190 Post-Fight Analysis

Not the most exciting card by any means. About average event for me in terms of results, tiny bit of winnings thanks to main event and co-main event hitting. Main Card Cyril Gane shut out Volkov according to some scorecards. I don't think the decision should have been quite that wide, but it was clear Gane took over during the five rounds of the fight. He doesn't have spectacular wins over anyone, but Gane doesn't make mistakes and is very skilled, tough guy to beat. Volkov couldn't really take full advantage of his reach, but largely shut out any grappling exchanges.  The co-main was largely a forgettable fight even if Boser got the finish there. Boser got the first round with steady volume and OSP doing fuck all, and in the second when OSP started to grapple he had some success but promptly got KOd after that. OSP just isn't very good, all-in all.  Valiev and Barcelos fought to a close decision. Barcelos had Valiev badly hurt in the second, but somehow only one ju...
Lue lisää