UFC 265 Post-Fight Analysis

Up and down card for me, did some generally okay reads, but some fights were completely off, and betsizing was generally really off. Still I guess I won a little bit, like a bet up.

Main Card

My read that Gane v Lewis could be cagey turned out to be largely wrong, and it was trusting the other read that the skill disparity is too much for Lewis that allowed me to turn a heavy loss into a small win in the main event. Lewis hardly got anything off, showing exactly how big of a difference being much better in skill can do no matter how much power one guy has. Hard to say if Gane can deal with Ngannou, but we haven't seen the guy really absorb a hard shot yet in his career.

In the co-main I got the skill assessment for the fighters largely right, but what I got wrong was Munhoz fighting more of a cautious fight than he usually does. Guess it was Aldo just shutting his game down by countering everything but either way he didn't pressure face first like he usually does, which allowed him to not absorb so much damage, but on the other hand allowed Aldo to put on a clinic where he won all rounds with stylepoints. Gotta love it while we still have elite level Aldo, these days are numbered, love watching him fight every time, win or lose.

Boy I'm glad I picked Luque ITD instead of KO, only sharpest of the sharps saw that submission coming. Chiesa had some top control but Luque found the D'Arce and finished the fight, solid performance but does raise some concerns how top wrestlers would keep him down. For Luque this definitely puts him into title talks though.

Tecia Torres v Angela Hill was the fight I completely misread. I figured Hill has rounded her game to such extent that she can make full use of her size and not allow Torres to settle into the fight, but Torres more than made up for the size disparity with combination of speed, volume and kicks. Perhaps Hill is also starting to show signs that she is past her prime, but it's obvious this iteration of Torres is tougher to deal with than I give her credit for. 

Yadong Song and Casey Kenney put on a good fight, high skill and high volume, very competitive, but perhaps not quite the war we were expecting. Either way Song did get the nod and might have deserved it unanimously, certainly don't think Casey had reason to complain about the decision.

Prelims

I think Green easily covered the odds that were given for him and I'd be on him again. I think Fiziev won that 2-1 but that first two rounds were close and 30-27 Fiziev was some clown judging. On another day Green could easily win that. Fiziev was better and deserved to be favorite, but not by that wide margin. Solid performance, but slowing down that bad already in the third isn't good look for aspirations to get to the very top of the rankings. 

Vince Morales and Drako Rodriguez had a close fight, but in the end Drako didn't have any reason to be hard done about the decision, he simply didn't push forward at all. Disappointed to see cause it seemed like he had the tools to beat Morales if he went to the leg kicks more and showed a little bit more proactivity.

Fighters evolve, and Alonzo Menifield was one to show some evolution today. He added some composure and better cardio to his already hard power and actually won a clear decision against Ed Herman. I figured he was R1 or bust and even failed my livebet, but in hindsight in that spot the livebet wasn't great, Herman's leg was already hurt.

Karolina got a big drop off in competition facing Jessica Penne, but the usual problems were there already in the start, lack of defence generally with Penne looking to fare just fine in striking early on. Then she compounded the bad start by jumping into Penne's guard, got swept and finished with an armbar. Poor grappling, poor fight IQ, and it is time for her to retire, she might struggle even outside of UFC at this point. Never added any real skill to her tenacity.

Manel Kape seems to never learn. He has good skill, but was well on his way to losing another round where he is the better fighter, until he just randomly exploded Ode Osbourne out of there with a knee. Great skilled guy, but will keep losing minutes through passiveness going forward.

Miles Johns starched Anderson dos Santos after beating up his leg early on in the fight. Much more one-sided fight than I would have expected.

Melissa Gatto turned out to be pretty high-level girl, she went aggressively for the finish with both strikes and submission attempts and ultimately broke her opponent's arm to win the fight. Needs a step up in competition now.

Jamey Simmons was the sacrificial lamb again, but he was much more competitive at least, still once the fight hit the ground he was quickly submitted in the second round after more quiet first round. Just doesn't begin to belong in the UFC.

My picks

Pretty solid night in terms of correct pick rate, 8 out of 13 right, but I did mismanage my betsizes and did less good on the props, hitting 4 out of 8 of them, with the only livebet of the night missing. 

Best bet of the night? I'd be inclined to say Gane considering that's what turned my night around and it was so dominant, but it was also kind of just chasing bet... as for picks I made pre-fight, think Luque ITD turned out to be strongest. Worst pick easily Hill, and more damning about that was just misreading the whole fight, though Alonzo R1 seems pretty dumb in hindsight, at least with the betsizing I used.  

Been a rollercoaster of a few weeks, after having big winning night couple of weeks ago, to big losing night last week and now salvaging this event just at the last minute. As always value is there, but I still have a lot to learn. One week for breather at least for UFC fights, then we go again.