UFC 265 Preview & Predictions

 Main Event: Ciryl Gane vs. Derrick Lewis

Hate to be boring and useless but I have nothing new to add to this fight. Even casual can do a correct analysis on this fight. Gane is better on every range, but that's the case for every Lewis fight and he still KOs people with one shot regardless. 

So I laid chalk against Lewis on Blaydes, expecting Blaydes fully to dominate by laying on top of Lewis for five rounds. I mean if a guy as tall as barrel like Latifi can lay on top of Lewis for couple of rounds, huge guy and a better wrestler like Blaydes can do it easy, right? 

Well I got half of it right. Blaydes did dominate pretty much as long as the fight lasted, but he didn't really pursue grappling much, instead he was putting on a striking clinic until he went for a bad shot and had his career ended. That's the main difference here though - both Gane and Blaydes are (were in Blaydes' case) elite in terms of skills for HW, but Gane's specialty is striking, so he does not have to go after Lewis. Indeed he can follow the safe path to victory he took against Jairzinho to take him apart from distance. Pop off a shot or two and glide out of range. If even Blaydes was successfully doing it to Lewis, surely much better striker like Gane does it too? 

Gane doesn't need to do a bad shot and allow Lewis to explode into him, Lewis will have to come to him, and if he starts to pursue Gane recklessly, Gane definitely has the skills to punish him for that or even score a well-timed takedown.

You have to line something like 10-20 % to Lewis always against even the perfect MMA fighter, but I don't see him having a good time against the guy who has the best footwork in the division. Gane is not going to be there to be hit. Might be a very cagey fight though, or Lewis might gas or get sloppy and get finished. 

Prediction: Ciryl Gane & Ciryl Gane ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Co-Main Event: Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz

Munhoz hits you lots, but also gets hit a lot, and Aldo is still in his vintage form, having only lost to elite guys. He has two rounds of gas tank too, so that ironically makes him better three round fighter despite having been champ for so long. 

So Munhoz will be stepping into the pocket and Aldo will be absolutely nailing him hard to the legs, body and head. Munhoz is traditionally crazy durable, but at some point the wheels fall off and I think Aldo might be offensively potent enough to be the guy to do that. Either way I do think Aldo can win two rounds here and barring he doesn't die late, he can win via decision too.

Munhoz' path to victory is to hurt Aldo somehow within first two rounds and take over late, or get Aldo out of there in the third round once he fades. 

Prediction: Jose Aldo & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3

Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque

Chiesa needs to grapple to win, Luque is a savage on the feet and will kill him if this goes for long. Can he do it? Well Chiesa's grappling has looked pretty dominant so far, but Magny win is probably only one of real merit so far for him. If Chiesa can top control and beat Luque that would be very impressive. I think Luque will put the damage on him though and get him out of there.

Prediction: Vicente Luque & Vicente Luque ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill

Probably a close fight, Torres needs to grapple to win it, pretty big size and skill disadvantage on the feet and Hill arguably beat wrestling based fighter in Gadelha very recently. Torres hasn't beaten pretty much anyone who has size advantage and matching experience to her in a while, so I'd expect Hill to run away here with a decision. Still, since all it could take it two takedowns to snatch a decision, Torres is definitely live here.

Prediction: Angela Hill

Confidence in winner: 3

Yadong Song vs. Casey Kenney

That Song v Phillips fight was such a delight of skill between two young fighters who have very high ceiling. Song struggled to get into his range against Phillips, but Kenney won't be as good at movement as Phillips was. 

Kenney has developed a very functional Muay Thai game, but as the Cruz fight showed, if your opponent isn't willing to stand there with you and is able to glide out of range, Kenney can struggle.

Think Kenney has slight kicking edge and wrestling edge, but also is at disadvantage on boxing range and has the worse footwork of the two. Feels like it should be a fun, close fight though, just think Song's power and movement will win out in the end.

Prediction: Yadong Song

Confidence in winner: 3

Bobby Green vs. Rafael Fiziev

So Fiziev is big favorite here and as much as I love him as well, I do think he is being overrated. Green is a tricky guy to beat in a striking only affair, and that's pretty much the approach Fiziev is gonna take. Of course Green is also likely to just kinda drift out of the fight and let Fiziev run into a decision, but honestly this should be a pretty close fight so we have to side with underdog here. 

Close or not, it ought to be a delight in striking skill, though I do think that if Green is getting overwhelmed he might pull off a takedown or two as well.

Prediction: Bobby Green

Confidence in winner: 3

Vince Morales vs. Drako Rodriguez

Kinda feels like neither of these guys are UFC level, but at least Drako is young and might develop into something. Morales hasn't really shown up in his UFC fights so far.

Rodriguez got KOd by Zahabi in his first fight, but he did show some good promise for this fight in those three minutes, landing a few solid leg kicks. It's his second fight, you'd think he will be bit more relaxed and better able to  showcase his skills. Can't really rely on him too much but it's certainly feasible that he also batters Morales' leg a little bit and is able to take over the fight. Worth a little punt for sure.

Prediction: Drako Rodriguez & Drako ITD

Confidence in winner: 2

Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman

Will old Ed Herman show up? At 40 you have to worry about guys aging overnight, particularly against someone as explosive and powerful as Menifield. However I would say this is Herman's fight to lose. Only bet you can make here pre-fight is Menifield R1, he is R1 or bust pretty much, then livebet Herman if he is still alive after two minutes to hedge your bets.

Prediction: Alonzo Menifield R1

Confidence in winner: 2

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Penne

Karolina was always very limited in terms of skillset, but made it work through toughness and tenacity. Over the years women's MMA has slowly developed, girls are bit better now than few years ago, while Karolina's skillset has further regressed. The toughness and tenacity are still there, but all they do for her now is getting her beat up worse and worse. 

If our premise is that Kowalkiewicz was left in a previous era of women's MMA, then perhaps another throwback fighter in Jessica Penne is the answer to get Karolina back in winning ways. Penne recently came back from four year lay-off to beat Lupita Godinez via split decision. Kind of a dodgy split decision, but it's still a W for her record and show's she can still compete... at least against Contender series girls. 

I'd definitely fade Penne here if Karolina had sound defence, some takedown defence and grappling... as in, if she was kind of a good fighter. Yan blowing her out on the feet surprised no-one, but the fact that she was also getting outgrappled there really concerns me here.

Obviously Penne is a huge step down in competition, so Karolina has a chance to win an ugly striking match here. Penne is better defensively though, and I do think she will get some grappling going. Either way it's ultimately low-level Women's MMA so we probably see a funky split decision, you can't rely too heavily on Penne either here, but she does seem like the more coherent MMA fighter overall. Still, if nothing else Karolina presses forward and throws a lot so if the rounds are even, he can win them with that style.

Still, Penne has a reach and grappling advantage here, we know she will land even with her rudimentary striking cause Karolina never blocks anything and will push for more clinch exchanges. Probably gonna be 2-1 either way.

Prediction: Jessica Penne

Confidence in winner: 2

Manel Kape vs. Ode Osbourne

People are still pretty high on Kape despite rough start to the UFC career. Still, should it be encouraging that he had two very competitive fights against high-level opponents, or should it be discouraging that he basically allowed two winnable fights drift away from him with lack of urgency?

With Osbourne the fight is likely to be fast and furious, for Osbourne has not gone out of first round in seven fights, win or lose. That being said, this is also a very different nature match-up from Osbourne's recent fights, so I wouldn't be betting this being over quick either. 

After all Osbourne's last fight is completely worthless as gauge of anything, he fought a chinny guy with no defence who had no business being in UFC in the first place. 

The big problem Kape here has is being undersized compared to Osbourne. He can make up some of that with speed and movement, but think Osbourne has to be seen as favorite here as he is simply on virtue of being the bigger guy. All in all I don't feel like I have a good beat on this fight, I lean on Osbourne but feel like Kape could take over the fight with volume... but then again he has a history of coasting so he isn't the kind of guy you wanna rely on in a fight like that. I think some over round bets might have value since I expect this fight to be longer than people would expect. Let's see the odds and then decide.

At dog odds, I definitely have the rangier guy here.

Prediction: Ode Osbourne & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3

Miles Johns vs. Anderson Dos Santos

From my July 17th preview:

"I don't know, I am really not getting a strong read either way here. Johns probably has the wrestling and power advantage, but ADS is better grappler and probably bit faster. Still think Johns is probably too good to get caught in submissions and Dos Santos' grappling instincts will work against him to make him probably engage too much in the grappling realm and end up top controlled to a decision.

I don't know really. Johns fights tend to be kinda low output striking matches and I think we are very highly likely to get something like that, which would make this the kind of fight that is always gonna be a close decision. All in all no great bets here, gonna have a tiny punt on Johns."

Prediction: Miles Johns

Confidence in winner: 2

Victoria Leonardo vs. Melissa Gatto

Karol Rosa has gone 3-0 in the UFC, and her last loss came against Melissa Gatto who is now making her UFC debut against a contender girl Leonardo. Gatto is undefeated 25-year-old with 6-0 record, so seems pretty solid prospect on paper, but she does have had almost three years off fighting since that win against Rosa. 

Rosa put her on the backfoot in that fight and basically ran her down for couple of takedowns, feels like most of the time that fight would play out in the favor of Rosa, but as it went, Gatto caught her in a submission and won it. Aside that she did show a pretty decent looking game, working to get up once and moving pretty well. It is a bit of a concern though at the top level if you get taken down easily, as those submissions keep getting harder and harder to come by as the opposition gets tougher.

As for Leonardo, she was completely out of her depth against Fiorot in her debut. I would say Fiorot is probably better than Gatto though so this ought to be a competitive fight. Still, it's a low-level women's MMA fight between two girls who are still largely unknown quantities. I lean towards Gatto from the little bit I have seen, but hard to feel confident either way.

Prediction: Melissa Gatto & FGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Jamey Simmons

Ahh the sacrificial lamb that is Jamey Simmons. The guy they brought in only to get killed by Giga so that Giga could have a finish. He faces against another guy who lost his UFC debut, but who likely had earned his UFC slot a bit more to begin with. 

Simmons' performance against Giga did nothing to inspire confidence in him, but Giga is on a different level show he might come out looking much better here. Still think Munoz is probably the overall better fighter and has already full 15 min of Octagon experience. Small confidence for either so not going heavy into this fight either way.

Prediction: Johnny Munoz Jr. & Munoz ITD

Confidence in winner: 1