UFC on ESPN 28 Post-Fight Analysis

I did like shit on this card. Oh well, it's been a while since I took a hefty loss, but there was plenty of value here, should have done better.

Main Card

My original prediction was Sean Strickland beating Uriah Hall, and that indeed happened in a dominant fashion. However cause I changed the bet last minuted to Strickland ITD to chase a profit, I ended up getting burnt. Strickland was close to finishing couple of times, but was ultimately content to cruise to a dominant decision in the end rather than risking getting caught with something. Smart on him, but kinda burns me. 

Uriah just never got going, kinda weak performance even by his standards. You would have expected him to have much more good moments early on, but yeah, complete shutout by Strickland. 

Cheyanne Buys made quick work of Gloria de Paula in the co-main. So quick indeed that I had been at the fridge and missed the fight, only saw the replay of the finish. Can't say I anticipated that fight a lot anyway so whatever. Good timing for Buys with that kick, bit earlier and she would have taken DQ. Talk about a high-variance situation.

I got some good variance with Jared Gooden KOing Niklas Stoltze fast. Gooden started fast and managed to look really good even before the finish in all of 68 seconds that the fight lasted. Very good performance, I think Gooden might actually make it quite far.

Melsik Baghdasaryan was my final hope to turn my losing night into a big win with my R1 prop. Don't really regret it, but hope I also had Melsik by KO and Melsik ITD, cause now I missed my bet by two minutes. If he didn't clinch so much he would have gotten Anglin out of there in the first, it was definitely one of my few good bets on the night, just one with higher variance.

Barberena R1 prop on the other hand... well it's meh, it probably breaks even. Witt largely top controlled that round, got hit with like 2 shots maybe, but man he reacts awfully every time he gets touched up. In the end the ML bet should have been a push, that 3rd round was 10-8 if there ever was one. Bad variance with decision again.

Prelims

Gritz pulled it off. Kinda feel like maybe I should have been on him? Biggest underdog on the card and he definitely had a foreseeable path to victory. Still, it was a game of fine margins as he wasn't far off from being finished in the 1st. Rafa gassed pretty fast after that attempt to finish and while he toughed it out admirably with the exhaustion, he didn't manage much more than lay and pray during the latter two rounds. Missed opportunity I guess, but I really didn't see Rafa getting this badly gassed. Definitely with the odds I suppose Gritz would have been worth a small punt. 

Danny Chavez managed to eek out a draw after being largely dominated by Kai Kamaka. Chavez just about got one round in the end and Kamaka's fouling had one point deducted. So that one was a push, but Chavez was a bad pick, Kamaka looked never really in any danger to be hurt by Chavez' power.

Frey v Yoder was a really bad read, I just can't believe ever how awful Yoder is compared to her physical qualities. You have massive size advantage and you get completely dominated in striking? All Yoder could do was some telegraphed shots from mile away. Embarassing, I can't believe I am still betting on her in 2021, I should also be embarrassed, even if it was just a small punt.

Zarrukh Adashev v Ryan Benoit was another poor read from me, but it was disappointing performance also from Benoit. After he ate like three leg kicks it was time to recognize that this is becoming a problem and adjust somehow, either my clinching or switching into a lighter front foot Muay Thai stance or fucking anything else than keeping eating those leg kicks. 

By the time Benoit finally adjusted by switching southpaw, it was already too late, his leg was already completely compromised. He did tough it out admirably, kept walking Adashev down, but Adashev rode out to a decision. It was also embarrassing performance from Adashev to just keep running all third despite Benoit being a fucking cripple. Come on, you got the guy compromised, why you don't finish him? Good way to remain an obscure fighter. All that good work wasted cause you don't put a cap on it. 

Phillip Rowe and Orion Cosce started the night out with a war. Cosce clinched Rowe up pretty well in the first, but every time Rowe had some space, he was hurting Cosce and putting together combinations. In the second Cosce could not keep up the intensity of the first and ultimately took a hell of a beating before finally going down at the end of 2nd round.

My picks

So I got 4/9 right of my picks in general, in props I think I got like two right out of five or six or something? It was pretty poor generally speaking. Not sure how many bets I went down in UFC alone since I had some Bellator bets, but my overall loss was about 4 bets. On a card where almost everyone I follow made a killing, that is a poor performance. 

Best read in general was in the Melsik v Anglin fight, unfortunately I made wrong bets for that one to actually capitalize on it. Best bet I actually had was Gooden as a dog. Worst bet was clearly Yoder. At least Benoit could have won if he fought smart, Rafa was close to getting that fast KO, and Strickland was close to a finish few times. Yoder was just completely dominated from start to finish. It was embarrassing. Slap me in the face if I ever talk about betting on her again.

Gotta shrug off the poor performance and work harder for the next event. With better luck I would have gotten that Melsik KO and would instead be boasting here of being like 10 bets up.