UFC on ESPN 29 Post-Fight Analysis

I'm not gonna be here lamenting about how bad my picks were and how much losses I took, let's focus on the fights, no one wants to read about me sulking.

Main Card

Jared Cannonier proved me wrong, but it wasn't that surprising in the end. I put Jared by decision in the end of my preview as a joke but perhaps on some level I knew that it actually isn't that unlikely outcome. He did hurt Kelvin couple of times, and kept landing the more impactful strikes through the fight. Kelvin didn't fully let the fight pass by him, but he certainly could have been more active. I don't know what Gastelum's corner was thinking when they thought they had it, Cannonier clearly deserving winner.

In the co-main event Guida put in a respectable performance particularly for a guy of his age, but he never managed to put the kind of pressure and output on Madsen that would gas him out. The problem was that he was perhaps too respectful of Madsen's wrestling and clinch, I think he should have made it an ugly clinch fight even if that would have meant being tossed around for a fight times - it would have worn on Madsen's gas tank more and Guida could have taken over late on.

All in all I think Guida did land with more impact generally, but he got out-volumed by a guy with poor gas tank so you can't complain the decision too much. Needed to be more urgent from the beginning and make Madsen work harder. Hardly convincing from Madsen, anyone actually high level will still dominate him.

Parker Porter put in a tremendous performance. The guy doesn't look intimidating aside the thickness of his legs, but I definitely underrated him and overrated Sherman, who looks very solid early on but as soon as you introduce a little fatigue, he gets defensively all over the place. I under-estimated Porter's durability as well, that's now two strong guys he has fought without even getting rocked in the process. Definitely gotta think of him as a serious challenge going forward for heavyweights.

Saidyokub Kakhramonov exposed Trevin Jones on short notice. Jones didn't get much going at all during the fight and managed to be the one to gas out despite Kakhramonov being the short notice fighter. Kakh definitely looks like a solid prospect, but that might have just been Jones actually just being exposed as not very good fighter, this didn't look much better than that Valiev fight and he didn't pull a KO out of his ass this time.

Vinc Pichel and Austin Hubbard had a very close fight. Surprisingly it was Hubbard being the one to pursue wrestling more as he was getting hurt on the feet, and ultimately Pichel won thanks to his more impactful strikes.

Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval had exactly the kind of chaotic, insane-pace fight that we have come to expect from Royval. In hindsight I don't know why I didn't hammer ITD, as win or lose, Royval pretty much forces finish with his all-offense, 0-defence non-stop style. 

It almost worked on Pantoja anyway. Royval had him in a leg lock for a good chunk of first round, and already after only four minutes it looked like Pantoja was having total cardio death from all the grappling transitions. He kept his composure though, but judging from his body language it was the last few ounces of gas he had left that he managed to secure Royval's back in early 2nd round to RNC him.

Prelims

Austin Lingo and Luis Saldana had a three round brawl. Lingo didn't look great, struggling with getting constantly tagged by Saldana's counters. I really under-estimated how sharp of a striker Saldana can be. Unfortunately it appeared that him hitting Lingo's elbow with a kick injured him and compromised him for latter two rounds. Lingo's forward pressure might have taken a toll on him anyway, but it certainly didn't help. 

It was an ugly win for Lingo who despite having his opponent fading and crippled was still getting hit a lot and only barely edged two rounds. 

Brian Kelleher put in a veteran display of octagon control by simply taking Domingo Pilarte down at start of each round and keeping him on his back for rest of the round. Not an exciting fight, but dominant win nonetheless.

Bea Malecki put in an absolutely awful no skill display and showing how you don't utilize your length at all, and as a result Josiane Nunes fucked her up. Nunes KO1 would have been great bet that probably was there to be seen pre-fight if you had a better eye for it than I have. 

William Knight was looking rough in the first round against Fabio Cherant, but when big guys collide things can change quick and a strange-looking hook took out Cherant as they were trading in the close distance. So guess Knight is as strong as he looks after all?

So, I guess Roberts is now officially washed out? He struggled with Bahamondes on the feet, which wasn't that surprising considering Bahamondes was known to have more volume, and he didn't get anything going on the grappling department. In the end the damage started to pile up until he got sent to shadow realm with a perfectly placed spinning wheel kick. 

Terry Etim was permanently fucked up when Barboza landed one like that on him, so you gotta wonder for Roberts when he took back-to-back KO losses. Anyway it has to be the end of the line for Roberts here, back to the regionals to gain experience and try to improve cause losing to contender guys is just no go. 

At least some of my gut feelings were right, and one of them was that Sasha Palatnikov just isn't good enough for this level. Got nothing against him in any way, just thought Cosce result was more of a fluke with the guy wasting his gas tank than anything else. Brahimaj took him down and put him unconscious with a choke in just over half a round.

My picks

Was this the worst night ever for me? Honestly I don't remember what was my biggest dumping so far, but 12 bets down would have to be either the record or very close to it. Only four picks hit out of 12 fights, and all the props missed except Bahamondes fight not going the distance - and that barely hit with seconds to spare. 

I can't even blame my chaser bet for main event for the big loss, even without it I would have taken 9 bets up the ass. So worst pick isn't going to be easy choice today... Or maybe it is, Chase Sherman. I just overrated him, and was too confident in him. That being said I still probably would have picked him with what I knew before the fight, but if my process was better I could have recognized at least that it's not as clear cut of a fight than I think it is and I should keep it small for such poor odds.

Trevin Jones is a pretty close candidate too, cause the guy never looked good except perhaps in his last fight, and I even admitted that Kakhramonov actually looks pretty solid. I could have made a better call for sure.

I don't regret picking Guida even seeing how the fight played out, it was close fight so those odds were fine. The main event bets were not value, but I still hit at least one of them decent enough percent of the time so it wasn't as terrible as betting Sherman.

Best pick has to be Alexandre Pantoja, but even there the odds weren't great given how close the margins were in the end. 

Either way I can't blame my brains misfiring, I have to blame for my effort level and attention to detail for this disaster result. So going forward either I work as hard as I reasonably can to make good predictions, or I give up the whole thing.

Going forward I'm gonna increase my bet size for picks that I feel confident about after proper taping, but also make tiny bets the more common thing so that the overall average bet size stays about the same or increases only slightly. I'm not tilted or anything, but for me to take this with the seriousness that it requires, the betsize needs to be bigger. 

Also I want to either start winning big or just lose my bankroll and take that as a sign to quit. I've done this for two years straight now, I should at least be able to break even if I really give it my best shot. No more half-assed previews (still you are probably better off betting opposite of whatever I say).