UFC on ESPN 29 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum

I really liked Cannonier. He might not be the most skilled guy, but he has his fundamentals right, and for a big, powerful guy that goes a long way. Obviously fighting the most skilled fighters in the division he has fallen just short many times lately, but the potential for fun fights is always there, and although he got outclassed by former champ Whittaker last time around, he still wasn't completely blown out. It's also remarkable that Whittaker took so many leg kicks without being affected much. 

Gastelum is kind of the opposite, very high level skills as shown by the close fight against Adesanya, but lacks the physical tools to really excel at middleweight. He should have Cannonier covered in striking, grappling and in volume.

Still his durability, that some suspect is waning, will be put to test as he will have to step to range with Cannonier and get blasted with leg kicks and power punches. His best bet, especially early on is similar approach to he had with another athletic specimen in Heinisch, to grapple a lot. 

All in all I think it is likely that Gastelum just puts volume on Cannonier and top controls some minutes away from 25 minutes to limit whatever leg and other damage he will absorb on the feet. He should have this by decision if it goes there but Cannonier has much more finishing upside. I think if you wanna pick Cannonier you have to pick ITD cause it's hard to imagine him basically rocking Gastelum in three different rounds, he will be losing position/forward pressure and volume most of the time but having moments where he hurts Gastelum. 

That being said I guess he can blast Kelvin's legs early and then just coast to victory while Kelvin is compromised, even so I think over 25 minutes finish is most likely in that scenario. 

I'm actually gonna go ahead and hedge my bets, so fade me and bet Jared via decision.

Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum & Jared Cannonier ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Clay Guida vs. Mark Madsen

Guida is kind of shot, but he is not at least so far been the type of shot that gets KOd with everything that connects, and since cardio is his strong suit he is unlikely to suddenly lose his chin either. He is still a wily veteran who is solid everywhere and can wrestle in MMA environment just fine. Mark Madsen obviously is very high level wrestler, but it hasn't really translated to Khabib style domination in MMA. The dude is already 36 and has shown some cardio issues. 

Guida always keeps high volume and high pace so while I see Madsen probably outwrestling him and winning at least one round, it's not unfeasible there is a round where Guida keeps it mostly on the feet and wins primarily on volume, and then Madsen slows down enough that final round defaults to Guida. For a degen bet Guida R3 might not be a bad shot either, but that would require Madsen to have a cardio death as Guida has not finished anyone except the withered husk of Joe Lauzon since 2011.

Ultimately the fight comes down to whether Madsen can control Guida with his wrestling and to how much Guida can make him work for it. In striking finish is not particularly likely and I think volume will be so clearly on Guida's side that he should win rounds.

Prediction: Clay Guida & Guida R3

Confidence in winner: 3

Chase Sherman vs. Parker Porter

Honestly, no shame in losing to Arlovski even this late on. I still think Sherman looks improved on his latest UFC run, and Porter, although seeming like an alright fighter and a good guy, just probably ain't gonna have the tools to excel at this level. I expect Sherman to be too strong and too technical for him here, and probably get him out of there as Porter's durability isn't great.

It's heavyweights so variance is always bit higher, but I don't see Porter really offering the kind of single-shot KO threat that could ruin this pick. He finishes guys either by accumulation of shots or by submission, and I don't think he has the offensive wrestling to consistently drag Sherman to the mat.

Prediction: Chase Sherman

Confidence in winner: 4

Trevin Jones vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Kakhramonov is not bad, but this is late notice fight and Jones has constantly outperformed expectation in his UFC career, though that Valiev fight was rough until he just killed him out of the blue. Even so, Valiev victory has aged very well considering how much his stock went up after the close decision win against Barcelos. It really is Jones' fight to lose, he is probably the more potent finisher as well, but you can't exactly be highly confident either way here.

Prediction: Trevin Jones

Confidence in winner: 2

Vinc Pichel vs. Austin Hubbard

Uhh, no strong opinion, think Pichel is better but not by a massive margin, and he is also older and Hubbard seems like the kind of guy who might show up looking better every time. Probably a close fight expect Hubbard to do what Hubbard does and be strong late on. Probably close decision after at least couple of really tight rounds, I'm gonna pick the younger guy on a spot like this.

Prediction: Austin Hubbard

Confidence in winner: 2

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval

That Royval v Moreno fight was so good. I still think Royval is just too fundamentally unsound to consistently win fights, but he is dangerous guy who puts a pace on you and fights in a chaotic manner that's just hard to deal with. 

Pantoja though should be able to deal with it. He is one of the unheralded guys of flyweight division, experience, very well-rounded, tough and durable, solid in all ranges, decent fight IQ. Anyone can get caught in Royval's grappling but if this is a predominantly grappling match, I still think Pantoja wins most of the time since he is probably gonna dominate position most of the time and ought to be good enough to not get subbed.

On the feet, Pantoja is just more fundamentally sound even if not a crazy volume guy. Royval gets on your face non-stop but he also gets hit a lot so he might just get nuked out of there. Still it ought to be a close, chaotic fight, but I have to strongly lean on the more fundamentally sound and experienced guy.

The odds aren't great though, as much as I think Pantoja is better, Royval can make any fight close and beat much better guys by simply putting a pace on them. So just small punt on Pantoja.

Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja

Confidence in winner: 2

Luis Saldana vs. Austin Lingo

Honestly don't understand how Saldana won that Griffin fight. This is a similar match-up though Lingo is probably even more aggressive moving forward but also more likely to get clipped coming in than Griffin was. Still, if Lingo does not get melted early I think he can catch Saldana a lot with power and over time the pressure and constant damage delivered will start to wear on Saldana. 

Not only that it's not hard at all to get Saldana on the mat and rack up some top control if the rounds are close. Lingo also showed signs of improvement between his 1st and 2nd UFC fights, so I think good chance that he shows up a little bit improved again.

Prediction: Austin Lingo & Lingo R1

Confidence in winner: 4

Brian Kelleher vs. Domingo Pilarte

I don't see this as a fight that you can predict too well. Kelleher has lately only lost to high-level opponents, and that's not Pilarte, however it's been a while since his last fight, he is long and had offensive skills so it's still possible he shows up bit improved here, and Kelleher is already 35 with miles on him, which makes this a less reliable pick.

Pilarte having significant reach advantage could play a major part here, though he did have that last time around too and he still got KOd with a simple cross. Kelleher has the experience advantage, enough power to score a KO and he will definitely be pursuing grappling anyway so I do think Kelleher will dominate unless he gets caught with a headkick or something. 

I rate likes of Hunter Azure much higher than Pilarte, but you can't completely overlook offensively dangerous fighter like Pilarte. Either way, Kelleher should not have faded that much yet that he loses here most of the time. Kelleher price isn't great so I'm going in pretty light for this one.

Prediction: Brian Kelleher

Confidence in winner: 3

Bea Malecki vs. Josiane Nunes

Can you really expect a serious preview for a non-serious fight? Malecki is better athlete, taller and has already fought in UFC before, the fight itself will be messy and close fight between two low-level fighters. You can't predict what happens in a low-level women's MMA fight, just manage risk.

Prediction: Bea Malecki

Confidence in winner: 2

William Knight vs. Fabio Cherant

Can I not make a pick? I really don't wanna pick Knight as a huge favorite, but Cherant looked absolutely awful last time around. I don't know, the guy has 7 wins and was LFA champ, maybe he really isn't that bad, just showed almost nothing of his capabilities because of nerves for UFC debut or something. I don't know but is Knight really good enough to ever be that big favorite? 

Knight is not as strong as he looks and has tendency to gas so there's too little to gain in picking him. I wouldn't have believed it after Cherant's last fight, but think in the end I go for a tiny sprinkle on Cherant. Just playing the number really and praying Cherant shows up as a much better version of himself and the Knight gasses out to lose the fight. Bit of a forced play but at least there is chance for a bigger reward betting Cherant.

Prediction: Fabio Cherant & GTD

Roosevelt Roberts vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Is Roosevelt Roberts washed up? He looked like one of the bright prospects of the division, but back to back first round finishes have his UFC career in disarray. It's early to say, even Chucky Olives looked kinda washed up at times in his career. 

Bahamondes is another rangy prospect. He didn't get finished, but he took hell of a lot of punishment against John Makdessi. Great fight but not a great way for young guy to start his UFC career by taking lot of damage. If nothing else, he does throw a lot and is incredibly tough, but Roberts also probably has a grappling advantage, and that's what ultimately flips this as a fight that Roberts can take

It's not impossible he KOs Bahamondes and it's most likely he can edge couple of close rounds with takedowns. I guess we betting that he isn't washed up yet. I gotta see if the odds are good enough to bet FDGTD as neither of these fighters are exactly defensively solid.

Prediction: Roosevelt Roberts & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Sasha Palatnikov vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

Honestly I just don't rate Palatnikov, he is not good enough for UFC level so my default stance is to fade him. Sure, he managed to win against Cosce but after taking a bad beating until Cosce gassed. 

I wouldn't say Brahimaj is automatic to win here since he is also just a developing fighter that's borderline UFC level. Still you can expect him to do better than he did against Griffin who is quite a bit higher level opposition and Brahimaj was at least competitive even if Griffin pulled away in the end.

In the end I do think Brahimaj starts stronger, but Palatnikov can still repeat what he did against Cosce and beat a gassy opponent late.

Prediction: Ramiz Brahimaj

Confidence in winner: 2