UFC on ESPN 30 Post-Fight Analysis

So last week I took the the heaviest loss of the whole two years of doing this... surely I was gonna do better this time? Nope, somehow I managed to further improve from that loss record. Difference this time is that I would largely do the same bets again if I had the chance. 

Main Card

My whole night's success was pretty much predicated on Barboza winning the main event and... well, I think Barboza did struggle a little more than I expected, but I still didn't call the fight wrong really - he kept stalking Giga and keeping him on the fence. He was having hard time finding Giga though so one has to give credit to Giga's skills to manage space.

As much as Giga won the first round, he had still taken damage, and second one was very close and he was showing first signs of weathering. It really looked like it was matter of time when Barboza was gonna take over. Unfortunately the chance that Giga just nukes him was always gonna be there so I only hit my inside the distance and under 4.5 rounds props for the main event.

The TUF fights were action packed, but I doubt the guys from the show are gonna make big runs in the UFC so I'm not gonna comment much on them aside that.

Kevin Lee was one of my other big hopes for the night... Well it looked like he was never winning that ITD, but at least the ML bet was not that bad, Lee effectively lost it in the second by getting reversed instead of maintaining the position.

Andre Petroski dominated Micheal Gillmore, but yea, couldn't get him out of there in all three rounds let alone one, so another lost bet for me. 

GM3 gravy train keeps running. Muradov was my worst bet of the night, chalky odds and I called him solid fighter... well he looks like it when he has his way, but introduce some chaos, pressure and fatigue and the guy starts looking very sloppy very fast. Should have at least hit that GM by sub as a back-up.

Prelims

Abdul Razak Alhassan is R1 or bust, this time it was literally first strike killing Di Chirico. I don't know what to make of that, perhaps I should have played some Alhassan back-up along with Di Chirico late... or just not touch the fight at all. Then again, pretty safe to say getting nuked by pretty much first strike was an outlier outcome and Di Chirico actually wins here most of the time... hard to say.

Sam Alvey raged after losing yet another split decision, but the only reason he even had a chance in the decision was cause Turman got two point deductions from eye pokes. Alvey was always gonna lack the aggression and volume to win a decision against a guy who tends to dominate position. Turman is fragile but his chin held up this time. Don't regret betting Alvey inside the distance all in all, but he should look in the mirror if he expects to win fights just backing down, especially when he is the guy with striking advantage.

Dustin Jacoby and Darren Stewart was my last spot of joy of the night, and the fact there was 8 fights after it just shows how miserable time I was having. Jacoby made quick work of Stewart despite the latter trying to grapple to at least extend the fight.

JJ Aldrich was the obvious pick that I could not make because of the awful odds, but she easily covered the price. Much larger, stronger, better volume and Demopoulos has no defence. Not a competitive fight at all.

I didn't go huge on Emmers early in the night, but I was still feeling quietly confident he would have his fight with Sabatini. Well it really looks like he has his way 9 times out of 10 there, I mean if he has any fight IQ. We've seen these MMA guys have solid process getting out of the leg lock, but instead Emmers who already had Sabatini hurt and dominated just fell down to fight for toe hold instead of digging his leg out.

I don't grapple or claim to understand anything about grappling, but I knew he was in trouble seeing how deep Sabatini was on the knee and the early grimaces Emmers was showing. So why not urgently try to work your way out instead of messing with the toe? Most perplexing. Sabatini by sub seems the obvious bet to make in hindsight.

In the opening fight of the night, Guido Cannetti showed he still has some chin left and made it a close scrap with Mana Martinez. Ultimately Mana got a split decision but looked rather underwhelming in the process.

My picks

I only got like 2/12 for my main picks, more props his but it was miserable event with me losing another 14 bets. Still I am much more at peace with my losses tonight as the Barboza fight was a correct read, I just ran into the % of the time where Giga gets the finish, I would still make the Barboza pick again at dog odds. 

Essentially my night was decided by my big picks because of change of strategy, but obviously if I get so few picks right all in all, I was already deep in the hole before. Still, Barboza and Lee fights were always gonna make or break the night, and only thing about those I would take back is picking Lee ITD. Moneyline he wasn't far off from winning.

Worst pick was Muradov as said, it was chalky as fuck and he ultimately didn't turn out as good under pressure as he had looked all his career so far. Best pick? Well Jacoby fight was pretty much only fight that went completely to plan, so Jacoby ITD was good one for me. Unfortunately I didn't hammer that line harder.

After taking 26 bets of punishment in two events, I need to swing back next event otherwise I'm gonna run out of bankroll soon. If this was a rough card in terms of quality, you should see the next weekend's event. Hope I manage to find a mismatch or two to really milk some profits, I need it now.