UFC 266 Post-Fight Analysis

It's over, my slump and losing streak is over. Still made some bad bets, but nice to recover a little bit.

Main Card

Yea, talking about poor bets, Ortega moneyline was one of those. He was never winning this with anything else than snapping up a submission or hurting Volk, and he nearly did snap something up. Volk is hard to finish though, trait that you'd expect from a guy who has won 20 in a row, and based on tonight it's clear that top two in featherweight are in a class of their own. Ortega might be the third best, but after getting absolutely mauled by both Holloway and Volk, it's hard to see him making it back to the title contention. Seems like the gap is just too much.

Similarly the gap between the champ and everyone else is just too much in women's flyweight. Valentina stared her way to a KO basically. Murphy didn't really even show up, hardly threw anything, we didn't expect her to have any chance but we did expect her to at least have a go... Still did enough to get KOd so can't complain all in all. 

The big Nick Diaz fight where it was obvious that Diaz came off the couch for one final payday... Was surprisingly banging. They stood in the pocket and traded for almost all of the fight, and although Lawler had clearly better off the fight, the fact Diaz was even somewhat competitive when it was obvious he had not trained was quite incredible. However if you think he won either of the completed rounds, you are out of your mind. Those little pawing strikes Diaz were throwing don't score. Lawler was landing all the clean, hard shots all through the fight. 

I'm glad we didn't have to deal with incompetent judging at the end of that and that Lawler took him out before that. Arguably it was Diaz wilting but he had also been badly hurt all through that fight and you don't take that kind of punishment off the couch lacking conditioning. He could have beaten lesser guy out there which was quite incredible. 

Curtis Blaydes didn't randomly die... so we were treated to a staring contest with occasional bouts of Blaydes being a human blanket. Arguably the best fighter in the division behind Gane and Ngannou, but kind of fragile and ridiculously boring when not fragile. 

I don't know why so many people thought Calvillo had a chance, in the end it was one-way traffic in the fight between her and Andrade. Some said soft stoppage, I don't see how it made any difference, Calvillo was done and had nothing in that fight. Not great betting value... unless you were a genius who got the R1.

Prelims

Death, taxes, Merab by decision... until it didn't happen! That was a crazy, high variance fight between Moraes and Merab. Bet those holding Marlon R1 KO were already celebrating cashing out their tickets as Merab was barely able to stand being out on his feet and getting smashed repeatedly. No one would have blamed the ref for stopping that, but perhaps he showed good eye to let it go until Merab found the takedown.

Marlon doesn't have great gastank to begin with, and when he then empties it looking for a finish, we knew he was in trouble. Merab very close to sealing out the fight at the end of the first, but ultimately Marlon managed to show how fragile is by being dropped on the feet in the 2nd before ultimately getting finished.

Nasrat Haqparast had some moments against Hooker but largely didn't impose himself at all to make it into the kind of fight he needed to win. Too much backing up and low volume, even if he landed some of the cleaner strikes, he was just getting so easily out-volumed by Hooker that the decision was very wide in the end. 

As for Hooker, he looks still like one of the very elite at the LW, but I think concerns about his durability are still gonna be up in the air and ultimately what stop him from making a run to the very top.

Shamil Abdurakhimov seemed to be growing into the fight with Chris Daukaus, but his dodgy striking defence was his undoing, and just as you would expect when I bet Daukaus R1 instead of Daukaus KO, he just barely survived to second but had nothing for Daukaus at that point. 

Taila Santos dominated Roxanne Modafferi quite easily, had her hurt couple of times, on a better day she could have finished that but no luck again for my ITD bets.

Jalin Turner v Uros Medic on the other hand had ITD written all over it, and indeed didn't make it out first round. Medic looked very ordinary when facing someone of his own size who also had solid striking, and after having Medic hurt on the feet Turner finished him with a sub.

Maximov ITD was another bet where I got greedy, in the end Brundage just slowed down but not so bad that Maximov could have found a finish. I was originally gonna bet the moneyline too, just bad decision to change my mind in the end.

Martin Sano came off the couch to get KOd with first shot, I think if we ever wonder what it would look like if Dana gave us a shot in the UFC, it would either look like that or CM Punk's debut. 

Jonathan Pearce did what he always does, got clocked with a few hard shots before wearing his opponent out for a 2nd round finish. 

My picks

I got most of the winners right, but as usual ITD bets instead of just keeping it simple with moneylines is what cost me... Though some did come back as well, for instance Merab ITD etc. 9 out of 13 picks went right, but as usual, would have been more if I had hit more MLs. For props, 5 out of 8 hit, so that was pretty solid.

All in all I ran a profit of 10 bets, which is in line with the massive losses I have taken lately. Goes to show my new approach exposes me to some heavy variance. 

Best bet? I wanna say Lawler since it was the biggest win of the night, but that one could have gone ugly as well. So let's say Pearce and ITD - first fight of the night, got the underdog and the fight went pretty much as expected, doesn't get much better than that. Jalin Turner and ITD in that match as well were pretty solid as well.

Worst bet was easily Ortega ML, as I already said, he was only winning ITD there so might as well have just bet that. 

All in all very good event, and nice to finally win something as well, takes me away from the immediate threat of going broke.