UFC 266 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega

On paper Volkanovski is the better fighter, but on paper KZ was supposed to dominate Ortega as well. Ortega has consistently shown holes in his game throughout his UFC career, but he has also consistently shown improvement between fights and the time off after getting massacred by Holloway seems to have done the kid good.

He is now entering his prime against Volkanovski who arguably should have lost the previous fight to Holloway. Either way Holloway, who is notorious as a pillow fist, managed to have Volk hurt couple of times during their fight. Ortega is much the harder hitter and also has very big submission threat to add, so I don't think Volk will want to mess around trying takedowns or clinching a lot here.

All in all that means that Volk just has lot less weapons to employ here. I do think he will be the one striking more and hitting with more accuracy, but unless he really puts a volume on Ortega, I don't think we see the kind of slaughtering as we saw when Ortega fought Holloway.

It just doesn't seem to me Volk has the kind of style that is most troublesome to Ortega. He is tough to sub, I give him that, but if he starts playing around on the ground with Ortega it's still gonna be trouble, and this new K1 Ortega we got is tough to deal with on the feet. I don't know, I am just feeling Ortega here, though I guess I do concede that most likely outcome is Volk 48-47, eeking out another close decision on numbers. Still wouldn't surprise me if Ortega puts on impressive performance to win the title.

Prediction: Brian Ortega

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Lauren Murphy

I would have never believed it but Lauren Murphy UFC champion 2021. Seriously speaking, unless you think Murphy is lucky enough to get a split decision here, there is no betting value here, I would fucking lose my mind and it'd be an all-time upset if she pulled it off. I guess I put in my obligatory betsize for Valentina but aside that  I won't touch this fight.

Or maybe it'd be funny to go balls deep on Valentina and then sweat it out when Murphy shows up to fight the best fight of her life and keep it close.

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko

Confidence in winner: 5

Robbie Lawler vs. Nick Diaz

Another one where not much tape is needed and where it probably wouldn't even be useful. Lawler is shotw, but at least he isn't a fat guy that doesn't care showing up for a one final payday. Don't get me wrong, I still expect it to be a very competitive fight, but I hammered Lawler already early and think he wins at a comfortable percentage despite not being the same guy any more. 

At least he has been active and fighting top level competition, as for Diaz this is literally first time in my life I see him fight live, yep in January 2015 I wasn't yet watching MMA, started the night following that. Diaz is OG, former strikeforce champ, but he is also 38, fat and out of shape, and hasn't won a fight since 2011.

Some Diaz toughness and volume boxing can make it his fight despite not being in shape, but I just think Lawler probably will be too sharp for him. This also has the potential to be really sad for both guys. As much as I want Lawler to win, I'd prefer if this is a vintage performance from both and closely fought war. I wish, I don't expect it to be though. In that kind of fight I'd favor Diaz, but as it is I just think Lawler will edge it simply from being in the fire more recently.

Prediction: Robbie Lawler

Confidence in winner: 3

Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

It's a Blaydes fight. He can dominate pretty much every HW for most of the time, even on the feet. However these big power guys like Jairzinho can just kill him at any moment. In fact against Jairzinho I would expect Blaydes to absolutely dominate. However that Lewis KO was absolutely vicious and his chin might be even more gone than it was before.

Obviously if we pick Jairzinho here it has to be by KO, that's pretty much 99.8 % of his win condition, I don't see him ever winning a decision, he is gonna get outvolumed on the feet and just laid on on the ground. Also he is unlikely to hit a sub even if he has Blaydes hurt, he isn't gonna mess around on the mat if Blaydes is still alive after the initial impact.

All in all I think Blaydes getting killed again would be pretty much the saddest outcome, so that's why we betting on it.

Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO

Confidence in winner: 2

Jessica Andrade vs. Cynthia Calvillo

Well Shevchenko basically laid out the blueprint to beat Andrade, keep it technical grappling, something Calvillo could do, but I just don't trust her fight IQ or well, anything really after what I have seen. It's somewhat of a low-quality fight, so expect Andrade to just bulldoze over her with her athleticism. But yea hard to feel confident either way cause Calvillo clearly has path to victory and Andrade's performances have been so up and down lately.

Prediction: Jessica Andrade

Confidence in winner: 2

Marlon Moraes vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Death, taxes, Merab by decision. Though to be honest, Marlon has been so frail lately that I don't even trust him to survive to a decision with decision machine himself. Like Moraes is both fragile and gassy, both likely to get him into trouble with Merab. But I don't know, so far I bet every Moraes fight wrong so probably here too, but I think Merab is too tough to finish and just puts too much volume to lose rounds.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili & Merab ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Dan Hooker vs. Nasrat Haqparast

Based on his age, Hooker should be in his prime now. However with the wars he has endured, one has to wonder if his durability is starting to go. It's too early to conclude it has gone though, he went five hard rounds with Poirier in his second to last fight, so until we see him KOd easily couple of times, you have to treat that Chandler loss as just him getting caught with a hard shot - after all Chandler hurt Oliveira very similarly and has done that all through his career.

Haqparast will have very clean boxing, but he won't hit Dan with that kind of power, and he will have to deal with trying to get to Hooker's range. As much as Haqparast is a highly-touted prospect, this is a big jump in competition for him very fast. His wins against Munoz and Garcia... well they just don't count for much, even if they were very dominant wins.

Obviously if he knocks out Hooker that will be a very impressive win on his record. But yea, this is a fight that I think is highly likely to be a war, but to go to a decision. Historically Hooker has been very durable and looks to be in top shape and Haqparast has mostly been going to decisions in UFC as well. 

Stylistically this favors Hooker. He likes to keep his opponents at the end of his range and kick them, Haqparast can forward pressure but generally prefers to counter and sits very heavy on his front leg. I could see Hooker's calf kicks becoming an issue. 

At the same time, Haqparast showing up fighting like house on fire and really managing to step into the pocket repeatedly and catch Hooker. I think he is likely to get caught in the counter doing that, but anything is possible if he really forces it to be a close-quarters fight. Should he do that, the likelihood of a finish also increases.

Prediction: Dan Hooker

Confidence in winner: 3

Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Chris Daukaus

Abdurakhimov has not fought since Blaydes dominated him in 2019. I remember that fight very well cause that was painful learning experience for me betting on a guy that, while he had great odds, also didn't really have a feasible path to victory. Completely outgunned in that one. 

This time? Well this ought to be winnable fight for Shamil if he shows up as a similar fighter to what he used to be - which is a big questionmark when a guy is 40 and has not fought in two years. I think he might be a little bit deer in the headlights to start and Daukaus is a guy who can get the job done fast.

Abdurakhimov's record has aged very well though, almost everyone he has fought have been high level heavyweight's, I'd say Blaydes in 2019 was probably best around aside Miocic and Ngannou. So if that Abdurakhimov shows up, he just wrestlefucks the shit out of Daukaus. Hard to feel confident either way, we look at the odds and bet the number here.

Prediction: Chris Daukaus R1 / Abdurakhimov Dec

Confidence in winner: 2

Roxanne Modafferi vs. Taila Santos

Can Modafferi again grind out a victory against someone who is younger, stronger, more powerful and more dangerous striker than she is? Yes she can. Will she? I'd be really surprised to be honest. Roxy is 39 and Santos is basically better version of Araujo for me.

So yea, I think Santos will keep it on the feet and massacre Roxy on the feet, I hope I am wrong, it's more a question of will Santos finish it or not. I think Modafferi is tough if nothing else, she's gone to decision 7 fights in a row now and hasn't been finished since 2011. So it's gonna be tough to time when the feels fall off, especially when it seems like age seems to be a less of a concern for female fighters. 

Still Santos is potent striker so I would consider betting the ITD if the odds are good enough... I don't know, actually the odds are so rotten you almost have to pick Roxanne just on the number, but meh, I rather just keep the betsizing small.

Prediction: Taila Santos & Santos ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Uros Medic vs. Jalin Turner

Big step-up for Medic, but you gonna get that when you keep finishing everyone early. Cruz was always gonna be a fragile opponent, Turner will tell us much more about how powerful striker Medic really is. It's still a questionmark how Medic reacts if taken to deep waters, Turner should have better chance of telling us that.

Still there is a chance of early KO too, Turner has been... well a little bit chinny if not a lot. Also Turner has won his every win inside the distance, he has the kind of range and power Medic has never had to deal with so either way it's very likely there is a finish.

It looks the me Medic can, at least initially math Turner's striking, but I do think Turner is too technical and rangy to be beaten in an extended fight with Medic's style. So I have to favor Turner, but he also has tendency to fade as fight goes long so Medic winning an extended fight would definitely be impressive.

Prediction: Jalin Turner & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3

Nick Maximov vs. Cody Brundage

It's a bit hard to gauge how good Maximov actually is, considering the guy he beat on the contender was just a fat fuck who wasn't very good and made some poor decisions to basically allow Maximov to dominate that fight. Still beating a pro fighter 50 pounds bigger than you does deserve some kudos, and it is clear Maximov has solid grappling and stamina, traits that you'd expect from a Nick Diaz protege. 

He also hits those reactive takedowns very well and at least based on that fight doesn't want to hang around much on the feet. As for Brundage, he has fought UFC fighter Knight in the contender series and comes to this fight as a last minute replacement, something that doesn't bode well considering that he is going against a guy who pushes the pace. On positive side, half of his wins have come in the first round so he does have some finishing potential here.

However interestingly enough, Brundage also prefers grappling type of fight, against Knight he shot pretty much immediately. I would imagine he at least tests out just striking before going for the takedown against Maximov, considering how good of a grappler Maximov is.

Either way we are probably gonna see some groundfighting here, and Maximov will push a pace, so Maximov ITD / sub might have some value, gotta see, either way I gotta favor the guy who knew he was fighting earlier.

Prediction: Nick Maximov ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Matthew Semelsberger vs. Martin Sano

Martin Sano has not won a fight since April 2014. He has not even fought since 2017. To begin with, he hasn't even fought as a professional many times. Honestly as much as we see total cans in UFC these days, I am completely perplexed how they have him fighting in UFC this weekend. Don't get me wrong, he might actually be an alright fighter, but on what credentials you get signed to UFC after not winning a fight in 7 years? You don't think there could have been someone more deserving?    

Well, in the end this is a rough welcome back for someone who is bound to have some ringrust. Semi the Jedi has been active, and while he lost his last fight, he lost to a solid guy, has decent fundamentals and doesn't gas out easily or isn't chinny. Hard to see how Sano could spring a surprise here, he is tough and has some gas tank, but based on the 2017 tape seems technically unspectacular.  

Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger & Semelsberger ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Jonathan Pearce vs. Omar Morales

So Pearce has been difficult one for me to bet prior, I bet for him against Lauzon, then he got KO'd, so I naturally faded him against highly-touted prospect Kamaka. Pearce then finished Kamaka in that one but it was still a bit of an incoherent performance. Don't get me wrong, Pearce does a lot of things right, he has good output and integrates the grappling very well into his style, but he also isn't great at maintaining top control and gets clipped a lot on the feet.

Ultimately what I am getting at is that the Lauzon KO was not a fluke, Pearce does have defensive deficiencies on the feet, but he does make up for some of it with good cardio and durability. Still if he gets caught clean like what happened with Lauzon, he can definitely be finished.

As for Morales, that Giga defeat has aged pretty well. Originally it looked like he kinda didn't show up in that fight, but upon rewatch he definitely tried his best, I just underrated how good Giga was. Omar took few hard shots from Giga, making me feel pretty confident about his chin going into this fight. Obviously he did eventually get dropped, but that was after Giga kept loading up for the whole fight and had already destroyed his foot. 

So if anyone is going to get a finish here, Morales looks more likely to do it. Still overall he has been awfully tentative in his last couple of fights. Pearce will at least throw a lot of shit out there, so while he will be probably at wrestling/power disadvantage, he will be winning the fight on the feet simply on enthusiasm most of the time when doesn't get caught and knocked out.

Feel like it's tough to trust either of these guys here, but let's look at the odds. All in all I would probably favor Pearce via decision to be the winning pick here most of the time, with Morales decision and Morales ITD being the next ones in probability. Still think we go to the judges most of the time so Pearce is favorite in my book, despite Morales being the more battle-tested one. 

Prediction: Jonathan Pearce & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3