UFC Fight Night 191 Preview & Predictions

 I obviously have not been in good form lately, but it's moment of truth - taking massive loss like last two events would basically mean me going bust and I probably aren't gonna be reloading... So time to start getting some results.

Main Event: Derek Brunson vs. Darren Till

Well I guess the key question here is if Brunson can impose his wrestling on Till. If they stand for 25 minutes, I don't know, I think Till just might nuke him, but most a striking match between these two would be rather low-volume and end up in a close decision large percent of the time. 

Since Woodley completely schooled Till in the final good fight of his career, Till hasn't really faced anyone who tries to consistently grapple him, so we don't really know how well he would defend takedowns here.

Feel like it's a fight between two pretty solid guys but ones that I don't really trust either of them. Kind of wanna pick Till by KO but then realize that he hasn't got a KO in UFC at all aside Cerrone. That fight probably left a very strong impression in my mind about him being such a big powerhouse, but truth is he has been a decision machine for the most part.

Honestly I don't wanna make a big bet here either way, think Brunson is the side with low confidence, but if I have to chase I would blast big on Till ITD and cross my fingers that Brunson's chin gets cracked again.

Prediction: Derek Brunson

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Tom Aspinall vs. Sergey Spivak

Spivak has improved during his UFC run, but still at best you could describe him as functional but unspectacular. As for Aspinall, he seems like a really tough prospect, and he passed the Arlovski test for new prospects, so guess you can kinda be high on him.

Still I'd rather pick Aspinall here ITD rather than ML in case Spivak can extend him. Spivak can be a problem in those situations cause he can keep up a pace and is durable, but he would have to survive the first half of the fight first. Aspinall did lose both fights that ever went past that 1.5 round mark in his career, but at the same time that means he finished all the rest before that. 

Spivak has been nuked before by big power guys so I think you can't bet against it happening here. Think I rather be on Aspinall R1 and ITD than gamble on Spivak making it deep... but if it looks good, there's always a chance to livebet here.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall ITD & Aspinall R1

Confidence in winner: 2

Alex Morono vs. David Zawada

Well, should be a fun if a little sloppy fight. At this point you can't call Zawada bad, even if you don't think he is great. He only got finished by Leech, everyone else either lost to him or fought to a close decision. That's what it's probably gonna be here too. Morono is an enthusiastic striker but Zawada isn't easy to finish and should be pretty eager to grapple. 

So yea, Zawada by close decision is my best guess here.

Prediction: David Zawada & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Khalil Roundtree

Oh Khalil... You were the chosen one... Then you never learned to defend a takedown and... I don't know. I just will forever fade him now as much as I have warm memories from that Anders fight. Now I have to forever fade him. Bukauskas has looked... actually pretty good during his UFC run. If he uses full arsenal of weapons here, I would expect him to beat Khalil quite comfortably, but if he lets Khalil play his game, this could be a nervous fight for Bukauskas backers. Still think the kid has a bright future, whereas at this point Khalil is just a ghost of summers past and someone we forever fade automatically.

Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas

Confidence in winner: 3

Paddy Pimblett vs. Luigi Vendramini

Well, guess hype is starting to pick up for Pimblett? I don't know him ahead of this event, but I've seen his name a few times on my Twitter feed, so interesting to see what all the fuss is about. From highlights he looks like a dangerous meme grappler that could positionally struggle in UFC and certainly gets caught a lot in striking.

Vendramini is actually the younger guy but seems to have much lower ceiling than Pimblett, at least based on what we have seen so far. At least the guy has had some tough match-ups, so you can't write him out here. He made the fight against Ziam at least somewhat competitive despite being outgunned on the feet.

So Pimblett is kinda auto-fade here as the hyped up guy, but I don't know if I like Vendramini too much here. I think he is just about gonna be able to make it close, but probably lose unless Pimblett keeps the meme grappling going, doesn't get the sub and loses rounds based on being on the bottom. I don't know, not an easy fight to make a pick but Vendramini isn't at least terrible so he should be able to make this a fight, I would rather be on him than on a meme grappler.

Prediction: Luigi Vendramini

Confidence in winner: 2

Molly McCann vs. Ji Yeon Kim

Eh, low level women's MMA. Kim has a big reach advantage though and both girls prefer to strike, so unless McCann can just push her around and make it a really ugly fight, I think Kim is winning pretty wide here. 

Prediction: Ji Yeon Kim

Confidence in winner: 3

Jack Shore vs. Liudvik Sholinian

Shore is gonna be a problem for lot of guys in this bantamweight division. Still only 26, but very high level, very good everywhere. If you dig deep you could say his only hole is somewhat dodgy positional awareness sometimes, which caused the split decision against Azure in a fight that he largely had the upper hand. I thought he won it, but it was close shave to keep his undefeated record, but Azure is a very solid fighter so impressive either way.

Sholinian probably wishes he could have gotten a softer debut, but this is what you gonna get in UFC level, particularly as a bantamweight. Sholinian has less fights than Shore and is an UFC newcomer obviously, but he is actually the older guy, at 31 he should be right at his prime whereas Shore you would expect still to be developing for a few years.

Sholinian isn't bad, he obviously made it to the TUF semi-final but got drowned into the volume Ricky Turcios was throwing. Don't know if Shore is such a volume guy, but he will definitely keep the pressure on all through the fight. Think Shore will piece him up the feet and probably is the better grappler too, but I wouldn't expect it to be completely uncompetitive. Still think it's a good chance for Shore to add another finish to his record, but I wouldn't bet ITD except if the odds are very good. 

Prediction: Jack Shore ITD & Shore R3

Confidence in winner: 4

Charles Jourdain vs. Julian Erosa

Erosa is 3-4 in his last 7 fights, and out of those four losses, three have been KOs, two of them coming early in the first round. Likely Jourdain does not obliterate him in the first, but he is a guy who constantly throw damage and Erosa is very hittable and chinny as his KO stat shows. 

Whether Jourdain is as skilled as Choi is another matter, but even if he isn't he isn't gonna fade and is gonna throw a big volume all through the fight. Erosa isn't gonna last all fight here and since he isn't going to gas Jourdain out, his only path to victory is to successfully grapple Jourdain a lot. Suppose it's possible? Jourdain ITD with Erosa by sub as a back-up? I don't know, could do worse than to bet that for this one.

Honestly my only corcern here is that sure, Erosa is hittable and chinny, but sometimes guys just don't go away no matter what, and if nothing else Erosa will bring chaos back as well. All in all, should be a fun, violent fight

Prediction: Charles Jourdain & Jourdain ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Dalcha Lungianbula vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Gut feeling is Barriault all day, both kind of meatheads but Dalcha is just big muscle guy with no brains, Barriault at least can kinda fight well everywhere. But let's not jump to conclusions, let's at least study the tape a bit.

So yea, Dalcha is dangerous, lot of big explosions, but he only beat Markus Perez cause Perez is so positionally unsound and will give up position for all round to fight for subs. Even in that fight Dalcha gassed, but not to point of total cardio death, but a guy who can make him work could definitely cause that. 

In many ways Barriault is better equipped to do that. He is not anything special, but he does the basics well, has a decent output and is durable, so as long as he does not get top controlled, he can keep pressuring Dalcha and force those big explosions out of him until he can no longer keep it up. I mean it really is similar game plan to Barriault's last fight. Dalcha might hit harder, but he doesn't strike as smoothly as Azaitar does, so for him it will be urgent to get the fight to the mat. It he can do that and top control the first round, he might have a chance to have enough gas tank for a 2-1 decision win.

It's either that or early KO for him. Most of the time Barriault simply takes everything he dishes out and wears him out, and this seems another fight where he could snatch a late finish. Perhaps Barriault R3 could be a good play here.

Prediction: Marc-Andre Barriault & Barriault ITD & Barriault R3

Confidence in winner: 4

Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcelo Rojo

Pretty high quality fight to kick off the night. Both coming off a KO loss though, but at least for Rojo it was at weight class up. Lot to like in Rojo's debut against Jourdain, not an easy guy to go against, they went for a very violent war and he had Jourdain in some trouble before he just started getting hurt too much himself. 

As for Martinez, his last fight against Grant was kind of strange. The first round was so polished with him picking apart Grant, so it was strange to see him being like a deer in the headlights in the second when Grant really came after him.

I don't know what to make of it, but you'd think Martinez has a big advantage here, but as Grant showed, if you really get on his face, you can kind of fluster him. Rojo is the type of fighter to be able to do that, keep pressure up and box you up. I think Martinez has to be the side here considering it is likely people are going to overreact to him getting KOd, but at the same time I feel like this will be a war where both guys land a lot of damage.

That being the case, Rojo's perceived durability advantage makes it a closer fight. Still, pretty strong lean on Martinez... A lean that I will have to further shift towards Rojo with Martinez' weight miss. Usually being the bigger guy works out as an advantage, but if the cut was tough and the guy literally got chinned last time out, it's not a good look.

Ok nvm fight's been cancelled, leaving this here in case the fight gets rebooked to a later date.