UFC Fight Night 192 Post-Fight Analysis

Very similar event for me than the last one, generally poor picks, running up a big deficit then getting saved by the main event to a milder loss that feels like a relief in the end.

Main Card

Yeah... I don't know why they made this match-up and why people though Spann has a chance. Sure, Smith isn't the best light heavyweight, but he is still one of the top guys, Spann is a prelim-worthy, peripherally UFC level guy that was never gonna survive 25 minutes with someone like Smith given how stupidly fragile he is. Well, guys tend to somehow survive despite being destroyed when I am on the ITD, as evidenced by the co-main.

Cutelaba pretty much murdered Clark in the first round. No-one would have judged the referee if he stopped the fight after that faceplant knockdown, or the follow-up shots, or the end of the round mount GnP. No one would have judged Clark for quitting on the stool after the beating he endured, after having his teeth destroyed... but you can't be having my ITD and Cutelaba R1 tickets cashing. Should have been on the ML I guess and not get cute, pun unintended, but I still feel like that was a bad beat. 

It was similar cruel luck through the card, though Clark surviving to a decision was the worst case of all. Mandy Bohm pick going wrong wasn't bad luck at all, just me overrating a terrible fighter based on very little tape. I won't beat myself up too much about it, I didn't wanna trust Lipski again and I understand myself in that, besides it was the smallest bet I had on the card so hardly mattered for the end result. 

Tsarukyan had Giagos indeed covered in all rounds just like I had surmised, in fact so well covered that he finished him early, instead of R2 or R3 like I was hoping and that would have given me the maximum return. Similarly I added Maness R3 at the last second for the Gravely fight, only for Maness to finish Gravely round early. Just a little bad beat, guess I could have as well hammered both R2 and R3 in the end... Oh well. Besides, Gravely had Maness KO'd already in the end of the first, unfortunately getting saved by the bell is still a thing. 

I expected Buckley and Arroyo to bring out a war but Buckley has been oddly timid in both of his last two fights. Prior to that he was marching people down with that peekaboo style and just hammering them with punches, now he just seems content to be taller fighters' kicking bag from distance. Still given how bad Arroyo is, it was no wonder Buckley eventually found the KO shot in the 3rd.

Prelims

I don't even understand in hindsight why I picked Rodriguez. Guess his few good moments in the clinch just left such strong impression on us that we forget that he never makes good use of his reach, is fragile and... well bunch of things. Nchukwi is in hindsight obvious pick, the guy actually isn't that bad and is built like a brick wall. These ones bother me the most, cause I kinda saw in my mind's eye how the fight will go, though Rodriguez was much worse than in my imagination, and I had a feeling Nchukwi could just pressure his way to a win. Oh well.

Kianzad and Pennington had a close fight, called that one right, should have probably just bet it's gonna be a decision instead of trying to pick a winner. In the end odds were about right, with Pennington deservedly edging it out. 

Zhu Rong actually comfortably covered his big favorite price against Brandon Jenkins, who started out with some swagger, but found himself a little behind, and as Rong started tagging him, lost his composure, got out of position and hurt. After that it was all Rong.

Montel Jackson was another ITD bet I was fucked out of. Somehow the guy knocks Buys down 4 times but never gets a finish. Once again no one would have blamed the referee for stepping in, but these guys wanted blood tonight.

Erin Blanchfield... Same story, but at least that was less of a beat and more her just probably not being as good as we expected her to be. She got lot of grappling control but was ineffective in getting submissions. She did put a hurting on Alpar, but Alpar is pretty used to getting beat up and isn't easy to finish with just strikes. All in all sucks to have your ITD bet completely dominate the fight, but less of a beat than Cutelaba and Jackson were. 

Impa Kasanganay got killed again. Harris looks more legit than I gave him credit for, he isn't just a grappler, he can definitely knock guys out. 

Heili Alateng had the fight in his control going into the 3rd round, although first two rounds were close in volume, he had landed the better shots and was 2-0 up... Only to shit the bed by grabbing the fence and losing a point. I don't know why it seemed he completely wilted in the 3rd, it was like a cardio death suddenly, but the fight didn't have that crazy pace, he took a worse beating at higher pace fight against Kenney and never wilted like in this fight. 

If he didn't grab the fence sure it would have been much bigger risk that he got finished on the ground, but had he survived he probably would have had 29-28 UD. As it was, it was unanimous draw.

Emily Whitmire... well she actually just sucks as a grappler. I said she'd be better off striking with Goldy, I was probably right, but we will never know as they went to ground pretty quick and she got subbed pretty quick. Sigh, just another bad pick in women's fights, but at least I have learned to just have small punts on these.

My picks

I don't know... Does anyone give a shit at this point? Something like 4 or 5 picks right, 3 bets loss. All these losses make me think that I am getting too cute with ITDs and round bets and all that shit... but no, it's just I am not even picking the winner right as often as I was during the 6 months before this slump started. Sure, there is downswing, bad luck involved here, but also I am just making bad reads in general. 

Still, it would probably help to simplify the process a little bit, at least until I get my confidence back with couple of winning events. Right now I just have to stop pissing away my bankroll at every event. 

Obviously Smith ITD saved my event so monetarily it was the best pick I made. And to be fair, it's probably overall the best pick I made as well even without result orientation or taking the ridiculous betsizing into account. It was value. Tsarukyan inside the distance was also probably value but that one was more obvious beforehand so I lean on Smith being the best bet of the night for me.

For worst one, there is plenty of candidates, starting with Bohm. That one gets a pass though - there was little tape, and it was smallest bet of the night. So yea, it's bad, but not the worst. Whitmire was worse, as many people read that fight right, and I went a little bigger on that. Still, it was overall small bet as well, as dumb as it was.

Brandon Jenkins was also pretty bad, but at least there were decent odds, it obviously wasn't value in the end, but at least we didn't pick someone who got dominated as a favorite in that one. Nah, the worst bet was comfortably Mike Rodriguez. We have been burnt by him so many times, we should have learned, and if you really paid attention, that fight could have been completely correctly predicted beforehand. 

It always hurts less when just something strange happens in a fight, but that fight was two guys fighting like they usually fight, it was just purely bad thought process that made me do the wrong pick. 

Either way live to bet on another day and the big motherfucking UFC 266 is coming next, looking at the card looks like there is quite a bit of squash matches but will see if we find some broken lines. Either way I enjoy much more taping these events, obviously since there is much more good quality tape available for more high-profile fighters... at the same time, edges can be harder to find.