UFC Fight Night 192 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Anthony Smith vs. Ryan Spann

For a main event, this is genuinely awful, but whatever, Smith fights aren't usually bad anyway. The durability difference here is significant and Smith doesn't seem to get the respect he deserves. Yea he is kind of journeyman-ish, but he still has some decent skill, excellent durability and good power. 

As for Spann, I don't really get on what merit he is fighting in the main event. It was barely a year ago when he barely scraped by aged Sam Alvey via split, and only bounced back to KO a fragile grappler that probably beats him 4 out of 5 times. 

Smith hits a lot of volume and with 25 minutes to work with, he can clip Spann with something hard and at that point, I expect him to have the killer instinct to finish it.

Prediction: Anthony Smith & Anthony Smith ITD.

Co-Main Event: Ion Cutelaba vs. Devin Clark

Cutelaba probably just crashes in and gets the early finish, but if not it becomes a much closer fight. Cutelaba is classic wins round 1 on aggression but slows down and struggles to consistently win rounds 2/3, so he will be struggling to win a decision. So I guess we on Cutelaba here with big part of the win condition being R1 or ITD. Worth noting 5 out of Ion's last 7 fights ended in R1, and only once in that stretch he went the distance.

Similarly, out of Clark's 5 losses three have been round one finishes... So yea, this seems pretty clear cut, wait for Cutelaba to kill Clark, and if Clark somehow survives, there's probably value to livebet.

Prediction: Ion Cutelaba

Confidence in winner: 3

Ariane Lipski vs. Mandy Bohm

I don't wanna bet on Lipski fights any more, been burned too many times already... Sigh. Let's go and see the tape.

I guess Lipski can be very dangerous under right conditions, but she does have some clear holes in her game and fundamentally sound fighters can exploit those holes.

Is Bohm that fighter? Hard to say as she is untested, but she is undefeated outside UFC. She does look pretty decent, got seemingly well-rounded game but low-level opposition can make you look good. I can see she has good habits though and they will serve her well in this fight. 

Based on the limited tape I would say Bohm probably outstrikes Lipski, but Lipski might have a chance via grappling. But I don't feel very confident in even that forecast, Lipski can have big moments just throwing aggressively on the feet, enough to sway rounds in her favor, and I would say Bohm is likely to win top control even in grappling. There is too many questionmarks to feel confident either way, if I have to pick here I will take the underdog probably.

Prediction: Mandy Bohm

Confidence in winner: 1

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Christos Giagos

You still gotta be very high on Tsarukyan, but he definitely can't take Giagos lightly especially early. Nonetheless, this is a guy who survived full distance with Islam few years back and has only improved since. I think Tsarukyan has Giagos covered in all rounds, but probably ultimately gets the finish via getting Giagos tired.

Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan / Tsarukyan ITD / Tsarukyan R3 / Tsarukyan R2

Confidence in winner: 4

Nathan Maness vs. Tony Gravely

Close on the feet, the longer it goes should favor Maness, but Gravely should be able to take him down on pretty consistent basis so most likely outcome is Gravely via top control UD. The only guy who beat Gravely in UFC so far was Johns who has a hectic pace wrestling game, I don't think Maness will keep it so hectic... That being said he could easily win standing rounds here. Nonetheless, when in doubt, pick the wrestler.

Prediction: Tony Gravely

Confidence in winner: 2

Joaquin Buckley vs. Antonio Arroyo

Was tempted to pick Arroyo here cause being generally short for the weight class and using very head movement heavy style, Buckley is always prone to getting headkicked just like in the last fight, but Arroyo just sucks.

Buckley ought to come forward with much more urgency this time and throw those heavy shots. Winn was clipping Arroyo at will so I think Buckley probably massacres him early. If not, Arroyo will eventually gas from being pressured. ITD seems extremely likely to hit here, I don't see Arroyo winning unless he just nukes Buckley.

Prediction: Joaquin Buckley & ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Mike Rodriguez vs. Tafon Nchukwi

It's a stupid fight, likely to end up in a stupid income, probably with Nchukwi getting massacred until Rodriguez gets just clipped with something or dies or gets tired hitting Nchukwi's block of a head. Still, you gotta expect Rodriguez to be the clearly better fighter here, if he dies randomly, he dies.

Prediction: Mike Rodriguez

Confidence in winner: 3

Pannie Kianzad vs. Raquel Pennington

Very interesting fight, and close fight on paper. Both girls like to box and clinch for the most part. I'm inclined to think Pennington has the grappling edge, but neither girl has massive inclination to grapple, so this probably will be mostly contested in the boxing range. Rocky is more battle-tested against higher level opposition, but that really doesn't matter much since she has generally gotten dominated in those match-ups. 

As it is likely to be contested in pretty close-range striking, the willingness to throw volume is likely to be the thing to make the difference. In that Kianzad probably has the small edge, but considering lower level opposition, I wouldn't jump to too many conclusions about that. So all in all I would say this is a dog or pass situation with very low confidence. Both have clear paths to victory, Kianzad via outboxing Rocky with volume and Pennington by keeping the striking close and imposing some clinch/grappling control. Likely will come down to razor thin rounds.

Prediction: Pannie Kianzad

Confidence in winner: 2

Zhu Rong vs. Brandon Jenkins

Maybe Rong is better, maybe not. I am inclined to think it's a close fight, for sure Rong isn't covering the price so this is a dog or pass situation quite clearly.

Prediction: Brandon Jenkins

Confidence in winner: 2

Montel Jackson vs. J.P. Buys

Jackson has the reach and big athleticism edge, don't see Buys overcoming that and it could get ugly quick as swell.

Prediction: Montel Jackson & Montel Jackson ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Erin Blanchfield vs. Sarah Alpar

Even if Alpar's striking wasn't fucking rough, she'd probably still be looking for the same gameplan of takedowns and clinchwork as in her last fight cause she finds herself with five inches shorter reach despite fighting a flyweight in Blanchfield. 

The problem is, Blanchfield is actually a EBI winning grappler, so I think Alpar's pretty much fucked here. Think it's Blanchfield ITD most likely, with sub being highest likelihood as Alpar will be forced to try the close the distance and fight on the mat, but still Alpar is durable so if they fight a stand-up fight there is decent chance it also goes to distance. Really tough to see a path to victory for Alpar, guess takedown and top control for half a round each round for a split decision? 

There is just two problems with that, 1) is that Alpar is not great at keeping the top position once she gets it 2) the longer they hang around in the mat the more likely Blanchfield is gonna just sub her. 

So yea, small percentages for Alpar with a some ugly wrestlefucking, otherwise this is pretty much nailed on fight. The only uncertainty here is that in the end, Blanchfield is still inexperienced as an MMA fighter, so it's always possible we see big underperformance or something. Regardless, I rate her as high-potential prospect, who is a better fighter already than Alpar is and also a bad stylistic match-up for her.

Prediction: Erin Blanchfield / Erin Blanchfield ITD / Erin Blanchfield submission

Confidence in winner: 4

 Impa Kasanganay vs. Carlston Harris

Well Impa's welterweight debut didn't really tell us much, Palatnikov is... not great. All in all Impa seems like a decently solid prospect that's alright but not great everywhere. As for Harris, he needs to get his grappling going but he does hit hard although isn't the most technical striker.

It all goes down to whether Impa can stop that takedown. I think either way ITD is likely hit here, with Harris either getting early sub or gassing down the line and getting KOd by attrition. However as I always say, it's hard to KO a guy. Harris probably should be slight favorite, but I trust Impa to win this most of the time if it goes to decision and get a decent amount of late KOs too.

Prediction: Impa Kasanganay & Impa R3 & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3

Gustavo Lopez vs. Heili Alateng

Been nearly a year since we saw Alateng in action after having his body turned to mincemeat by beautiful performance by Casey Kenney. This is a bottom of the barrel fight but in perhaps the most stacked division so both guys are still dangerous fighters. 

It's not a great look to get so comprehensively dominated in striking by Kenney but at least Kenney is a top-level fighter, even if he is no Saenchai when it come to striking - he is still solid and it's not a shame to get beaten by him. What's more damning for Alateng in that fight is the way he just kind of accepted being a kicking bag instead of really changing up the fight. 

Nonetheless, Lopez is quite a bit lower level of competition. He doesn't overwhelm you with volume like Kenney does, doesn't have as much of a grappling threat, his defence is very porous... All in all if nothing else, Alateng showed that he isn't gonna be easy to finish against Kenney. That already should tilt the odds to Alateng's favor, but it is hard to see how he has reacted to being shut out in that fight. Either way, I don't feel too strongly either way, Alateng probably the side but it's hard to feel confident.

Prediction: Heili Alateng

Confidence in winner: 2

Emily Whitmire vs. Hannah Goldy

Whitmire is 4-4 with all losses coming via submission, to which my kneejerk reaction is that she is a poor grappler, but when you look at it more carefully, the last three to submit her were Viana, Ribas and Robertson, all something of grappling experts, so it does put that record to a bit of perspective. 

Still feel like she is better off keeping it on the feet here against Goldy, who just does kind of weird stuff, rough technically. Also Whitmire has couple of inches on her in reach so it does support her edging rounds standing up. I do still think Whitmire probably has the grappling upside as well, so all in all that starts to skew odds clearly into Whitmire's favor.

I mean Goldy probably shouldn't even be in the UFC, she now has back-to-back losses to absolute bottom of the barrel competition in Granger and Belbita. Whitmire is better than that pair so I expect Whitmire to send Goldy out of the UFC here.

Looks highly likely to be a decision though, Goldy is durable after all and has been steadily going the distance. But you can't be confident of it either, I can see there being some grappling so sub might happen any time and Goldy did get dropped in her last fight - if Whitmire can have her that hurt, I think she can find a finish. Whitmire ML is the safer bet here.

Prediction: Emily Whitmire

Confidence in winner: 3