UFC 267 Preview & Predictions

 What I have learned over the last few weeks is that my ML picks are still generally good, I just get too much fancy with props. So it's back to basics time here, gonna be picking my prop spots very carefully this weekend.

Main Event: Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Texeira

When you compare solid boxing and grappling with forward moving style, you get a fighter that's gonna win most of the time. However, when you add a more weathered chin to that equation, it becomes closer to a 50-50. On top of it, it's not like Jan isn't powerful. The Polish Power might be overstated, but fact is Glover has gotten hurt in pretty much all of his recent fights. So yea... He is probably gonna get hurt here as well. 

I want to believe in Glover Texeira the Light Heavyweight champion in 2021. It is possible, he is good enough and has the tools to make it happen. However, I don't think it is the probable thing to happen and odds reflect that.

Hard to say there's any value on the Polish GSP here, he is notoriously low volume so covering the odds if he doesn't nuke Glover becomes difficult. If nothing else, Glover is busy and has wrestling. This is definitely case where I want Glover to win, just don't trust his chin to hold up for five rounds. Probably no value in betting Jan here, but that's what I will go on so I feel less gutted if Glover doesn't become the champ.

Prediction: Jan Blachowicz & Texeira by Sub

Confidence in winner: 2

Petr Yan vs. Cory Sandhagen

This is for the real title, but Aljo will remain the paper champ and truth is this might all work out to his favor. He already easily beat Sandhagen once and should Cory win in this one, I would favor Aljo in the unification fight as well. It's the guys who can mix in wrestling and striking well that pose the biggest problems for Sandhagen, and Yan might be stylistically much more favorable match-up. 

After all Yan was getting pieced up on the feet even by Aldo until Aldo started to fade. He is slow starter in general and Sandhagen is one of the best strikers in the world right now. 

In MMA, bet on chaos. Cory winning is the most chaotic outcome. Definitely chance here Yan just hits savage mode and walks Cory down with some powershots, but I think if he doesn't have extended top control periods he is gonna have bad time here. Which is ironic cause I would probably favor Yan now over anyone else over five rounds.

Prediction: Cory Sandhagen

Confidence in winner: 3

Islam Makhachev vs. Dan Hooker

Want all the best things for Hooker, took bravery for him to take this fight, either way, it's probably gonna be another Makhachev wrestlefuckfest.

Still, you gotta bet Hooker on this lopsided odds. Islam is perhaps the best fighter in the division, but he isn't as good as Khabib, and Hooker is up there too as elite. He can definitely hurt Islam.

Prediction: Dan Hooker

Confidence in winner: 2

Alexander Volkov vs. Marcin Tybura

I could have sworn few fights ago that Tybura is washed. The fact he is back here on a winning streak and in a winnable fight against one of the elite fighters in the division just goes to show how well he has rebuilt his momentum. 

Think I am on Volkov here though like everyone else. He is top level fighter in this heavyweight division, Tybura's win streak is built off of lower level competition in close fights. He is gonna get found out here.

Obviously Tybur still has his typical path to victory to just make it ugly clinch fest and tightly edge two rounds, but Volkov ought to be too good for that.

Prediction: Alexander Volkov & Volkov ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Jingliang Li vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Feels like eternity ago when Chimaev took the MMA world by storm and was the name on everyone's lips. Well, his high profile didn't completely fade in his absence, but will be curious to see how his game has evolved in the meantime. Obviously he destroyed everyone he faced so far, and is still a very young prospect in terms of MMA, also only has 9 fights, but the competition he has faced was also very rough. Nonetheless you'd have to favor him against Leech.

Especially since it looked in the weigh-ins like he did DC's towel trick and is much the larger man. 

Still at massively lopsided odds, can you really trust Chimaev after such long layoff? I know he has definitely looked like Christ's second coming, but this really is the first legit fighter he faces. Leech can at least have him hurt on the feet and won't be intimidated.

All in all Leech is good enough that I don't feel bad betting on him at big dog odds. Might punt fight not going the distance, cause either Chimaev is massacring Li, or getting gassed late on. I don't know.

Prediction: Jingliang Li & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Volkan Oezdemir

I actually would love to see Oezdemir make a comeback to the top of the division, but no there's a reason the make this match-pu now and that is cause they wanna build up Ankalaev who is the future of this division. Again I would love to be wrong, but Oezdemir's washed. Or maybe I'm just jumping into conclusions off of him losing against absolute monster in Prochazka. 

Ankalaev is one of the better prospects of the division, but people are right pointing out he has very low volume and Volkan could just outhustle him especially in the early going. Volkan also has the bigger power so if his chin just holds up... Good lord am I actually gonna convince myself to bet on him here?

I don't know. Guess Volkan is worth small punt in the end even if I rate him at this point of his career trajectory to be up against it with Ankalaev.

Prediction: Volkan Oezdemir

Confidence in winner: 1

Amanda Ribas vs. Virna Jandiroba

Fun match-up, at least as far as women's MMA goes. Relatively high-level girls, but both have fallen just a little bit short when facing the division's elite. 

My gut feeling is that Ribas should be better here in all ranges, but in hindsight all her wins have not aged that great. Grappling with Dern is still the most impressive win of her career. So this is probably lot closer fight than I would think. I figure Virna hits bit harder, but Ribas is busier on the feet. On the ground it's close.

I guess overall I would still have to favor Ribas, but should Virna be large enough underdog, she is definitely playable here in a fight that has close margins.

Prediction: Virna Jandiroba

Confidence in winner: 2

Ricardo Ramos vs. Zubaira Tukhugov

Feel like Ramos is one of the brighter prospects in the division, just hope he doesn't run into KO losses like against Murphy too often. He did bounce back from that loss well last time around against Bill Algeo and Tukhugov is more of a decision machine than big power guy so shouldn't be getting stiffened here at least.

There's lot to like in Ramos, he is dangerous in all ranges, but he also has some obvious flaws, like being quite hittable and not fighting at a very high pace. But as said, Tukhugov doesn't hit that hard and does not push a pace, so I feel like Ramos has pretty good chance here to just be winning minutes by simply being little bit more busy. 

Prediction: Ricardo Ramos

Confidence in winner: 3

Albert Duraev vs. Roman Kopylov

Duraev probably not as good as odds suggest. Just play small the Kopylov number and forget about it.

Prediction: Roman Kopylov

Confidence in winner: 1

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Benoit St. Denis

Dos Santos is elite of the UFC, sure he has taken some setbacks lately, but still very high level guy. St. Denis I guess has some hype being a young fighter coming in as undefeated, but I could see this getting really ugly for him if he isn't actually ready for it. 

He ought to have the grappling to save himself from getting totally destroyed if he doesn't get caught with anything big. Still, it's more than likely that someone facing such a big step-up in competition is just gonna get crushed.

Prediction: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Confidence in winner: 3

Shamil Gamzatov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

I saw Oleksiejczuk as one of the best fighters in Light Heavyweight division.

Perhaps that enthusiasm has dampened a little bit on my part, but dropping submissions to divisional staples in Crute and St. Preux isn't terrible, and he did bounce back to win a very close split decision with Bukauskas. He does have the kind of style that if you don't dominate him in the grappling or catch him with hard shots coming in, he does win with volume and forward pressure most of the time.

Besides this is a pretty significant drop in competition. As said, Crute and St. Preux are divisional staples and Bukauskas decent prospect, Gamzatov is a guy who split decisioned with Klidson Abreu. Shamil didn't show much of his wrestling in that fight, but he still has enough of wrestling skill to be able to threaten takedowns to stop Michal's forward pressure. 

Either way I think most of the time Michal is just gonna rack up the minutes here and win a decision.

Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk

Confidence in winner: 2

Makwan Amirkhani vs. Lerone Murphy

Sometimes the order of these fights makes little sense. Murphy's two past opponents, one of whom who drew with him and another who he KO'd match-up and somehow end-up much higher in the card. Meanwhile Murphy facing something of a high-profile guy who has fought divisional elite in Burgos and Barboza in Amirkhani is buried deep into the prelims. Guess something for us hardcores who turn up early?

Nonetheless Amirkhani just falls a bit short of being elite fighter. He lacks any real elite skills, though he is near it in terms of grappling, but lacks the gastank to really implement grappling heavy attack. He basically has enough gas to go for couple of submission attacks, then he will be getting pieced up. He also has somewhat incoherent game aside grappling, and I see that explosive and sharp striker like Murphy could really exploit that.

If you wanna play Amirkhani, it's 1st or 2nd round submission, but Murphy has both enough power to have most of the finishing upside, and enough pace to win the minutes unless Amirkhani has suddenly transformed into a top control expert. Not to say he could not win rounds via top control, but as said, he will be out of gas pretty fast if implementing that game plan. Would be long 3rd round for him even if he managed to win the first two. Much rather on Murphy in this one.

We often talk about fight IQ when it comes to fighters and I think it is important to distinguish between that and actual IQ - cause you can be a very intelligent guy but when you introduce fear, pain and instincts that you go through during a fight, that can make you fight in a retarded manner. Amir's problem has been more perplexing decisions outside of fighting. Before Kirk fight we knew already Amir had gas tank problems, so what was his response in training? Focus on strength, put on size so you have to cut more come the fight night.

Can't really see the thought process there, but apparently he felt small with Barboza. Either way it resulted in the worst performance of his career, getting picked apart and gassing out against UFC newcomer on a week's notice. That's the most damning thing about it, Kirk had a week's notice and it was very low pace fight, but it was Amir doing fuck all and still getting gassed in that fight.

As a Finn myself I wish all the best for Amirkhani, but I don't see him winning in UFC anymore aside catching a quick sub. I think Murphy is gonna be too good to fall for that, after all it's a guy who's already faced arguably better guys and gone the distance. It's more a question of whether Murphy finishes inside the distance or not. I don't know about that. I think he will be live for a KO, but slaughtering Amirkhani like what happened with Barboza, probably won't happen. 

They will probably be both pretty gassed if the fight makes the third round. 

Prediction: Lerone Murphy

Confidence in winner: 4

Yaozong Hu vs. Andre Petroski

UFC Quality in 2021... I will pick the better grappler.

Prediction: Andre Petroski

Confidence in winner: 2

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Allan Nascimento

The flyweight division isn't very deep so by default if you are signed to the UFC you are among the top flyweights in the world, at least conceptually, but I think either of these guys would get the brakes beaten off them if they faced anyone actually contending in the division. Doesn't mean they are bad, Ulanbekov showed against Silva that he has solid, well-rounded skillset, but it's hard to see him getting much wins against better competition.

Newcomer Nascimento does seem like a winnable match for him. Guy who got passed over in Brazil Contender series after losing to Raulian Paiva - however that loss obviously aged well, with Paiva having solid run and being the next opponent of Sean O'Malley.

Problem with Ulanbekov is that although solid, he doesn't really stand out in terms of any skill. He is one of those Dagestani wrestling guys but even so, he didn't exactly dominate Silva in wrestling. Yea he won the grappling battles but didn't dominate them. Defensively Silva managed to also get him down at times, though Ulanbekov was doing decently in scrambles. 

Here Nascimento has lot of subs in his record so Tagir might choose to keep it on the feet, though I still think he might be good enough on the ground to stay out of trouble with submissions. Still, he gets hit a lot on the feet and simply tries to put volume on you. All in all I am not getting a strong beat on this fight, but I feel Tagir probably has slightest of edges everywhere, but this probably ends up being a close decision fight, and Nascimento has bigger finishing upside with subs. 

Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov & FGTD

Confidence in winner: 2