UFC Fight Night 193 Post-Fight Analysis

Solid night for my bets, back-to-back winning nights, but lot of winnings left on the table as well with some poor picks.

Main Card

Two wild, violent Brazilians met in the main event, so fast finish had to happen, especially with other one of them being known for having a glass jaw. Well, to everyone's surprise there wasn't much wild stuff going on in the fight, instead both respected each other's power and fought in a very calculated manner. Walker was let down by his corner that made him think he had won, when in fact it was very close fight that Santos edged with some veteran savvy.

The co-main event was cut short with a hard clash of heads that saw Holland, dizzy after the impact getting subbed. It was correctly ruled as no contest, the only mistake there was that Dan Miragliotta didn't step in right away as the clash happened. 

Another fight that was supposed to be violent was Oliveira vs. Price, but somehow Price fight goes to a decision again despite Price pouring it on late. Kind of an incoherent fight, Oliveira was supposed to dominate the grappling, but instead Price won first round comfortably with top control, while looking awful on the feet in the 2nd. He only dominated late on because of Oliveira gassing hard. All in all I can just say fade both guys hard going forward.

Speaking of incoherent, what even happened between Cirkunov vs. Jotko. I mean I guess Jotko deserved the decision for being less worse.

Alexander Hernandez made quick work of Breeden just as expected, making us all wishing we hammered that broken R1 line much harder than we did. Missed opportunity, still a big win for me even with the gentle sizing I used.

Gooden and Solecki fought to a razor thin decision, going into the scorecards I thought it was a coinflip so either way would have never regretted getting 50/50 with plus money. It worked out for me with Gooden edging the decision.

Prelims

Antonina Shevchenko started well against Casey O'Neill but starting well against O'Neill is easier done than finishing well. O'Neill kept coming and didn't really take too many clean shots even in the feet. In the end Antonina's gas tank was never gonna hold up to the relentless pressure. 

Bethe Correia's career ended like it went for the most part, physically outmatched, completely outgunned in terms of skill, but stupid tough and taking everything given to her while still fighting back. You could argue she didn't really go after the win cause she never pressured Rosa, but she did land, it's just Rosa landed over 3x more, and it's not like she ever fought with the approach that would give her best chance of winning.

Devonte Smith had first round as we expected against Mullarkey, but I thought Mullarkey looked more than just brawling pressure fighter, he looked really sharp, obviously length and speed of Smith was always gonna score some hard hits early on, but Mullarkey also avoided a lot of shots and gave some of his own. If first round lasted bit longer he could have indeed turned it into his round.

In the second he really stepped on the gas and absolutely drowned Smith to finish him. My only regret is I didn't hit fight doesn't go the distance in that fight, seems obvious in hindsight. Mullarkey is one to watch, he went to close war with Riddell and now got this scalp, he can challenge anyone.

I seriously overrated Pirrello. I mean I didn't have any illusions that he would be as good as De Andrade, but I did think he is at least good enough to formulate some kind of plan to avoid De Andrade's power early and then outpoint him as the fight goes deep. Not even close though. Slow switch kick with hands down just gave De Andrade the KO on a platter. Should have faded Pirrello hard... now it's too late. Value missed. 

Stephanie Egger was also in hindsight big value. I generally don't want to touch low-level women's MMA with big bets, but had I done my research, I would have gone big on Egger. Based on tape, I rated her slight favorite, not big enough to warrant playing at the odds she had, but if I knew Young had just been pregnant that would have been maxbet territory there. Young looked slow to start with and then punctuated it with poor fight IQ by falling into Egger's lap after only good moment she had in the fight.

At least the night started well for me, with Eduardo quitting after fight extended despite starting off looking like the value side. Fade Perez hard going forward though, the guy isn't gonna make it in this shark tank of a division. Probably gonna be O'Malley's next opponent after Paiva to give him another spectacular KO.

My picks

Solid night again, won 5 bets, making a little comeback after the rot of recent times. This profit was made primarily from my main picks with 7 out of 12 going right. Props broke even with 3 out of 8 of them hitting. In general I am getting better at betting the props, but still I am much better at just making straight picks. 

Worst pick is easily Pirrello, what the hell was I thinking? Or no, it was just lack of watching the regional tape so I just kind of thought "surely he is better than he showed against Simon"... No, he is much worse.

Best pick actually has some competition as my three biggest winnings had two of my biggest bets. Mullarkey, Gooden were those, then there was Hernandez R1. All have some asterisk. For Mullarkey, I wish I bet bigger and had fight finishing ITD, for Gooden the fight was a coin flip and thus not a massive value and for Hernandez R1 I hope I hammered that line harder. 

So much value out there still in MMA betting. So much for me to still learn. Big mistake is though what I keep repeating, it's holes in my research that lead to losses. More tape study on Pirrello and knowing about Young pregnancy would have turned 5 bet winning night into easy 10+ bet winner. Harder work next week to keep the win streak alive!