UFC Fight Night 193 Preview & Predictions
Returned to winning ways with last weekend's event, but the hard part is to keep winning. Another 13-fight event this weekend, obviously pales in comparison to UFC 266 but pretty solid for a fight night.
Main Event: Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker
Unfortunately judges didn't get that one right, and his title reign wouldn't have been very long considering both Texeira and Rakic subsequently defeated him.
All in all Santos still has the durability edge, or maybe just is less likely to get caught clean with his chin in the air like Walker seems to get caught in every fight. I mean Corey Fucking Anderson put Walker's lights out so you have to think seasoned, powerful striker like Santos will find the killshot here early, but Walker hits very hard too. All in all this fight probably will end fast... or turn into a bit of a staring contest after very explosive start.
Santos and unders, I guess?
Prediction: Thiago Santos / Fight doesn't start round 2
Confidence in winner: 3
Co-Main Event: Kevin Holland vs. Kyle Daukaus
I gotta admit I was one of those people who way overrated Holland while he was tearing through competition in 2020. 2021 has been much rougher for the guy, though both match-ups he has faced were top of the division guys. That's what happens though when you win five fights in a year and kill legends like Jacare.
Still there is a big gaping hole in his game and that's his wrestling. Still, as much as it is a hole in his game, he got top controlled for pretty much 10 rounds in a row and didn't get finished, so it's not easy to get Holland out of there.
Holland has been decision prone whenever not fighting outmatched competition, and as for Daukaus, he is pretty much sub or bust and has decisioned in all of his fights under UFC banner, whether Contender or the big show.
So if anything looks the certainty here it is them going the distance.
All in all Daukaus likes grappling heavy attack, but just doesn't have the kind of wrestling the guys Holland has struggled against had. It's too soon for Holland to have really addressed that hole, but at the same time he might have been able to do enough to be able to mostly stop Daukaus' grappling attack. Most of it will happen on the feet with movement and good countering.
I don't know, I just think Daukaus is too rough on the feet and won't be used to the kind of reach disadvantage he finds himself here. Still after seeing Holland get top controlled in back-to-back matches, and even against Jacare he found himself on his back before randomly killing him, it's really hard to trust on him.
Prediction: Kevin Holland / FGTD
Confidence in winner: 2
Alex Oliveira vs. Niko Price
At this point it seems clear Oliveira is just out there to collect a paycheck and will wilt at the first sign of trouble, which means basically one bad moment in a fight and he will be done. With Niko Price he could be taking a beating for 2.5 rounds and still pull something out of his ass, the guy has power and will to fight to death.
I feel like Oliveira has the kind of power though to get the only type of win he can get at this point, which would be fast finish. Price is traditionally very durable, but he is also very hittable and getting up in age after numerous wars. So it's all a question of will he survive those first few big powershots that Oliveira throws his way. In an extended fight Price dominates via attrition.
Either way I don't think this is going the distance. It doesn't take long for Oliveira to wilt so it might not even make it out of first round in either case.
Then again there is the chance Cowboy goes for grappling approach and just top controls his way to a decision win. That way he would not have to deal with the kind of violence Price would bring.
Skill for skill, Oliveira has pretty big advantages, but at this point of his career you can't trust on him beyond a fast win. Oliveira R1 / Fight doesn't go the distance and Price moneyline seems like a solid combo if the odds are decent.
Prediction: Niko Price / Alex Oliveira R1 / FDGTD
Confidence in winner: 3
Krzysztof Jotko vs. Misha Cirkunov
Someone on Twitter put it as "the stoppable force meets the most movable object", or something like that, thought it was funny. Cirkunov is pretty good everywhere, but hella fragile. Everyone with any power stopped him, and all of his losses are finishes. I am sure he recognizes the conundrum he is in though and just looks to adjust his style to be even more grappling heavy.
That said, Jotko isn't exactly big KO threat, with his only UFC KO coming in 2016. Still I think I would have Jotko KO here provided the odds would be good enough. All in all though it's likely to be a grappling clinic from Cirkunov if he survives Jotko's striking. Either fast sub or a three-round control decision, both real possibilities. He is bigger man and better fighter than Jotko when not randomly dying.
Prediction: Misha Cirkunov
Confidence in winner: 2
Alexander Hernandez vs. Mike Breeden
Hernandez is more of an athlete than a fighter, it's kinda gone on show every time he has faced higher level opposition. Breeden isn't that, he is just some regional guy.
All in all, the best you can hope is Breeden shows some durability and can extend the fight and deal damage to Hernandez to put him to the test. Worst case scenario is that Hernandez just nukes him. However I don't really trust Hernandez. If I wanna bet Hernandez finish I'd probably rather have Hernandez R1 than ITD, cause if he is gonna finish you he is gonna do it early, he is less of a finishing threat as fight goes on. Either blitzes you or it's kinda stale point fighting.
Prediction: Alexander Hernandez R1
Confidence in winner: 1
Jared Gordon vs. Joe Solecki
Pretty close one. Gordon's the better striker, good game that's well put together, mixes very sound striking with grappling well and doesn't make much mistakes, well not at least in his last couple of fights. He is a bit fragile with fast strikers but has really only lost to high level guys. Solecki's striking is not at that level that he is big threat to catch Gordon clean and sleep him.
He is however tough grappler and probably the stronger guy as well. Gordon isn't bad in the grappling department though, so while you have to give Solecki advantage there, it's highly dubious this will be dominant control match-up from Solecki.
All in all I would say its close and every round starts from standing. Gordon has been only KO'd he hasn't been submitted, and he generally fights a style that reliably wins decisions. That's what I would say is the highest likelihood outcome here, close Gordon decision win. It's gonna be a tight match though.
Prediction: Jared Gordon
Confidence in winner: 3
Antonina Shevchenko vs. Casey O’Neill
Another one of those fights where whoever keeps it in their realm probably handsomely dominates. O'Neill pushes for clinch wrestling a lot, and Shevchenko is very good there, and also larger girl. Could be that Antonina brutalizes her on the clinch or at least discourages her enough for extended stand-up fighting, where Antonina would dominate her. Or could be O'Neill eats a few shots, takes Antonina down and top controls for the remainder of the round x 3.
All in all could be worse spots to bet Antonina than this.
Prediction: Antonina Shevchenko
Confidence in winner: 3
Bethe Correia vs. Karol Rosa
Whoa whoa wait a minute, Bethe is back? I thought she retired.
Well she probably will retire after this, so I take this chance to reflect on how remarkably good career she had in fighting considering extremely low fight IQ and very limited physical talents. Seriously, she fought for the title, had many wins inside the UFC and actually had multi-year career as a pro fighter, that's remarkable, Artem level shit right there, but even then Artem at least could hit very hard, Bethe didn't really even have that going for her.
Now that we got that out of the way, does she have a chance against Rosa? Well you can never count Bethe out, she always brings it and is tough even if she is at a skill deficit, and here she definitely is on a skill deficit. Also Rosa is still improving, whereas Correia's prime was at least 5 years back, though of course as I always repeat, age matters less in women's fighting. Still considering she was already supposed to be retired I am not feeling particularly encouraged.
Rosa has 3.5 inch reach advantage and probably slight advantages in all ranges. So... Probably three close rounds that Rosa edges all for a 30-27 win? Rosa has fought worse women than Bethe and still been a decision machine so I really wouldn't hold my breath for a finish here, especially considering Bethe has been traditionally tough to finish. That being said, she was KOd by Ronda and there's always a chance her durability just goes down a cliff due to age at some point. Still, all in all Rosa by decision is my prediction.
Prediction: Karol Rosa / FGTD
Confidence in winner: 4
Devonte Smith vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Mullarkey is kind of a scrappy guy who's been up and down but his career has aged pretty well. Volkanovski is the only guy to ever stop him in the 1st round, and 1st round stoppages are Smith's bread and butter, so this could be an interesting match-up.
Mullarkey will be willing to walk down Smith and push the kind of high volume that could pose Smith some trouble, but he will have to walk through some of those deadly counters in the process. Smith has shown some fragility in his last couple of fights, but it's unlikely he is just going to randomly die like Worthy did. For Mullarkey to win it will probably happen late on through attrition.
Smith will probably win a big percent of the time in the first round by uncorking one of his deadly counters, but then his conditioning will be put to the test as the fight goes on. I do expect him to lose the third round if fight goes that long, but I also think he probably has enough in him to snatch a takedown or something in the 2nd to basically seal the win. Smith has pretty strong top game and Mullarkey doesn't deal with wrestling great.
Smith R1, Mullarkey R2, R3 and all possible. On Moneyline I would favor Smith. Interesting one in terms of betting, gotta see where the odds are before I decide anything.
Prediction: Jamie Mullarkey / Smith R1
Confidence in winner: 3
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Gaetano Pirrello
Could be a banger, two guys with very high KO rates, but obviously De Andrade with a great record of 26-4 with 19 KOs is already 36 and at the twilight of his career. Pirrello's record isn't as impressive but he is still young fighter only approaching his prime.
De Andrade might be up there in age, but don't let that fool you into thinking he will be a pushover, the guy can still absorb hard shots and dish them out too. The problem is that the game has kind of evolved past him, he doesn't have much of a kicking game, stands very heavy on lead foot and throw power punches. He doesn't have the kind of chain wrestling game as Simon had so while I think he might land the occasional takedown, he isn't going to top-control Pirrello in the manner Simon did.
So all in all I think we see fun and violent stand-up affair, where the tendency is to favor the younger, more modern fighter. However, Pirrello has been KOd in the Euro scene so it's not like he is someone who cannot get caught. Probably gonna be closer than people think, but I think most fighters simply have more diversity in their striking than De Andrade, therefore I favor Pirrello here.
I don't think De Andrade will show up looking old suddenly, and if he was a few years younger he would surely blow Pirrello out of there, but it's enough to make it a closer fight. The higher pace he can still keep up, the more likely he is gonna dominate this match.
The odds seem to suggest that Pirrello wouldn't have improved at all from the first match-up and that Andrade will show up in vintage condition. I think there is some chance of that happening, but I do think if there is any value it's taking a punt at Pirrello. As much as de Andrade has fought tough competition, he isn't all that and getting old. I also think it's worth a small punt to play this goes the distance, if not for any other reason, to make sure there will be a KO.
Prediction: Gaetano Pirrello / FGTD
Confidence in winner: 3
Stephanie Egger vs. Shanna Young
Rough fight, two girls who lost their UFC debuts, Egger to Cortez and Young to Chiasson. In hindsight Chiasson is probably the tougher opponent, but Young also has a loss to Sarah Alpar in the Contender, so we are really talking about lowest of the low level of fighting in UFC here.
To be fair though the tape against Chiasson wasn't too bad. She fought at a high pace, landed some crisp combination, and at least on the feet was actually more skilled than Chiasson, she was just completely physically outmatched and didn't have the cardio on short notice to fight at that pace.
All in all lots to like in her performance, at least on the feet. But if Alpar dominates you on the ground, there might be some takedown defence/escape and fight IQ issues. As for Egger, she isn't as long or strong as Chiasson, but she is both stronger and longer than Young so imposes similar problems to her. However she isn't as aggressive or powerful as Chiasson.
So Egger will probably look to get this into the grappling realm with urgency, especially if Young starts slapping her with those headkicks. Egger's striking is kind of lumbering, she is long so she can land but Young will have a big speed advantage. Egger's grappling is pretty crafty though, so her path to victory is clearly to take it to the mat. All in all I would say both dominate this match-up in their own areas.
It will be tough for Young to keep it on the feet at the reach disadvantage she is at, but she is clearly better striker and I would definitely have her here as an underdog. As favorite I'd hesitate playing her considering Egger is likely gonna have the edge in grappling. It's a match-up that could look very dominant either way.
It's hard to feel high confidence for a girl that got finished by Alpar, after all. I do think she will look great in patches on the feet, but whether she can string enough of moments like that together to win two rounds and survive to a decision without getting subbed, is a whole another matter.
Prediction: Shanna Young
Confidence in winner: 1
Alejandro Perez vs. Johnny Eduardo
Another episode of "fighters that haven't fought in years or won a fight in years". Perez got KOd by Yadong Song in 2019 and hasn't fought since, and he is also on a two-fight skid, having last won in 2018. Before that he was a UFC staple though having been in the promotion since 2014.
Eduardo has been in the UFC even longer, having debuted in 2011, but is already 41 years old which is ancient in bantamweight and has not won a fight in almost 5 years. He is also coming off of even longer lay-off than Perez. Just like Perez, Eduardo is on a two-fight skid, but at least Perez made it to a decision against Stamann, whereas Eduardo got finished in under 8 minutes in both of his losses.
So on paper, this looks like a wash for Perez who is in terms of age about in his prime, has less ring-rust, has not been finished left and right. Both guys fought solid competition before their layoffs, but with Eduardo's layoff and last two fights combined with his age you have to have serious concerns about his ability just dropping off and durability not being the same any more.
If the age wasn't such a concern, I would say Perez is pretty winnable match-up for Eduardo. Perez' style is pretty incoherent, just kinda lunges in with powershots and that's why he got KOd by Song and also why he got caught multiple times by Stamann. Really it was only matter of time before he got badly KOd like he did against Song.
That makes it somewhat close fight at least early on, cause Eduardo does have some decent power, he can definitely catch Perez. 21 finishes in his career tells Eduardo is dangerous, but with the issues I would say he has very little margin for error here, whereas Perez has at least shown he can take shots. Also Eduardo has tendency to chase submissions too much which is kind of an outdated style of fighting.
All in all I would say this is somewhere between 60/40 to 70/30 for Perez cause Eduardo does kinda rely on catching Perez with something hard early on. I don't trust 41-year-old bantamweights when fights get extended, and Perez has more upside to having had improved his style during the layoff. Eduardo will certainly have lost some athleticism since his last fight.
The odds on moneyline aren't great... Perhaps some ITD bets will be the best approach here.
Prediction: Alejandro Perez / Perez ITD / FDGTD
Confidence in winner: 2
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