UFC Fight Night 194 Post-Fight Analysis

Well I got annihilated again, but like lately I totally deserved it for trusting Dern so heavily and researching the fights so poorly. Really I underbet both of my good bets and way overbet my worst bet.

Main Card

I should be experienced enough in this to not go heavy in on these unrealiable Brazilian grappling specialists. The story is always the same, can look brilliant when they get it to the ground, but lack wrestling to do it consistently, kinda wooden strikers and limited gas tank. On top of all those rather typical issues Dern also has the problem of simply not being aggressive enough and having that spirit to really get after it consistently even when she is getting beat up. Think of Kron Gracie vs. Cub Swanson when things weren't going his way, he never got discouraged the way Dern did. 

All in all I see Dern getting brutal beatdowns intermixed with runs of easy submissions. Rodriguez was the right bet for the main event, and to compound my error I went really way way too deep on Dern as well, hitting her hard in ML, submission and ITD. Should have kept my betsize under control there, perhaps not even play ML at all since she really had only 2 rounds of gas tank. She went close enough to the finish in the second, if there was no round breaks that might have been her fight.

In the co-main Gooden just wasn't good enough which is pretty damning considering he pretty much crippled Brown early on with leg kicks. When opponent soundly outstrikes you on one foot, you have to start considering some adjustments. Another bad bet, but not as bad as the main event and the betsizing was in check. Also at least Gooden ITD had more value than trying to take him on the ML.

Tim Elliot and Matheus Nicolau had a pretty close fight, in the end Nicolau was much the cleaner fighter but close enough decision to warrant saying it wasn't a great bet from me. Aside that, ITD didn't hit, Elliot has plenty of durability if match is more of point fighting like it was there. Expected more chaotic scrap. 

Mariya Agapova completely shut out Sabina Mazo and didn't even need grappling to do that. I really regret I didn't hammer Agapova harder and also pound the ITD prop, in hindsight these are easy to see, Agapova was great value there but lot of us had PTSD from her last performance.

Chris Gutierrez took a while to get started against Felipe Colares, and it didn't really turn out the kind of war that I was hoping for. Colares managed to force enough clinch to not really accrue a lot of damage, and even Gutierrez was content to kind of just tightly win rounds. Worse strikers than Gutierrez have landed flush on Colares repeatedly but Gutierrez didn't land that many clean shots in the end. 

Prelims

Alexander Romanov gave us chalk chasers some nervy moments as he failed to really establish top control in the first round against Jared Vanderaa. In the second the fight finally started to look like we expected it to look, and Vanderaa was quickly pounded to a finish. Probably not value in hindsight, I don't know, hard to see that ending inside the distance two times out of three. 

Charles Rosa fought like an idiot against Damon Jackson and aside that just couldn't stop the wrestling top control. He has now been shut out in wrestling twice in last three fights, probably end of the line for his UFC career or at least close of it. 

Loopy Godinez absolutely dominated Silvana Gomez Juarez, turned out much less competitive fight than I expected and Godinez would have been the value side. 

Steve Garcia got rocked couple of times in volatile fight against Charlie Ontiveros, but no wrestling whatsoever isn't gonna cut it in UFC, and Ontiveros was never making it to distance getting dominated on the mat like that. Not betting ITD was lot of value missed, similarly I should have probably bet Garcia at least bit bigger.

My picks

Overall I didn't do too bad, 5/9 picks right, but all of my prop bets missed and for my picks, I hammered the wrong bets big and wrong ones small. I was breaking even before main event, but my massive 7 bet exposure spread over three bets for Dern was my undoing. I did win some back in boxing later, but hard one to swallow.

I did poorly in the preparation for this event and to be fair it wasn't an easy event to win. Either way, I could have at least limited losses. I need to develop a better system into devising my betsizes, cause right now I am going crazy in completely stupid spots.

I don't really feel good enough about any bet to designate them best bet, worst pick obviously was Dern because of the sizing issues, but at least she seemed like she had a chance to win, whereas Juarez and Gooden were kinda outgunned the whole time. All my losing picks had somewhat poor performance so not easy to pick worst either. All in all forgettable event, will gladly just move on and focus on the next week.

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