UFC Fight Night 195 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont

Usually I bet bigger on main event just out of principle, just for the sense of occasion, but this is a fight between two very flawed women, essentially just glorified low-level women's MMA fight, only reason both of these fighters are this high up the card is their physical talents.

So yea, Ladd probably just GnP's through Dumont, who sometimes makes me feel like she is legit fighter, sometimes makes me feel she is really over-rated. I don't know, and most importantly I don't care. So I won't hit this fight hard. I think 25 minutes is a long time for Dumont to survive with Ladd if she indeed gets exposed, so ITD is probably better once again than moneyline.

Prediction: Aspen Ladd ITD / FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe

Surely Arlovski isn't this far gone? Sure he gets laid out by big punchers, but Sherman is better than Felipe and Arlovski handled him. Felipe isn't big one-shot KO threat, more of a volume puncher, I would expect Arlovski to be way too skilled here to lose.

Still you never know when the guy just ages overnight, but Arlovski has been too old for last 5 years and keeps squeezing these decisions. Probably will do it this time too, will reliably win here but won't do it confidently, just split decisions Felipe to keep us sweaty.

Prediction: Andrei Arlovski

Confidence in winner: 3

Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez

Clearly set-up for Miller to add another sub into his collection. Wouldn't feel confident betting anything else here except Miller KO1 and Miller sub, if Gonzalez is still around he might make it a fight simply out of being the younger, more athletic guy. Still expecting Miller to easily dominate.

Prediction: Jim Miller R1 / Miller R1 sub / Miller Sub 

Confidence in winner: 3

Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Fiorot has looked like the real deal so far, and who's to say she isn't? However it's not worth laying chalk for, she has beaten nobodies and Silva is actually first real challenge for her and should be dangerous, especially early on. Again Silva ITD is probably better bet than ML, but I might have both here.

All in all expect a competitive fight, if Fiorot just dominates Silva then we have to look at her as one of the best prospects in the division.

Prediction: Mayra Bueno Silva / Silva ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Nate Landwehr vs. Ludovit Klein

So we have a guy who got KOd by Herbert fucking Burns and Julian Erosa, both in the first round going against guy who at least in the regional scene was famous as a finisher. Landwehr is not a very good fighter, but he had intensity and durability in the past, and those go surprisingly far in this game. However he has run into guys who can hit hard and accurately and keep up with the intensity, so he will keep getting KOd, especially when it seems to me his durability is waning. 

Klein is not elite, and I suppose there is some chance Landwehr can do the same as Trizano did against him, however I do think Landwehr is overall gonna take too many bombs to the head to last full fifteen minutes. In that regard, perhaps Klein ITD would be better bet than Klein moneyline.

No value definitely on the moneyline for a guy who has shown gassy tendencies. If Landwehr survives he probably puts a pace and has good chance of edging a decision here. 

Prediction: Ludovit Klein ITD / FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3

Andrew Sanchez vs. Bruno Silva

What to make of Sanchez? Well, decent striker but bit chinny, good grappler who doesn't grapple enough. Almost a great fighter. As for Silva, we just really have that one round against Turman to base our views on him. It didn't really turn out that well, Turman handled him for most of the round only to get reversed and glass chinned on the last minute.

Sanchez isn't as chinny as Silva, I'd expect him to pursue the grappling route a bit more enthusiastically here since it's such a glaring hole in Silva's game. Still hard to feel particularly confident on him.

Prediction: Andrew Sanchez

Confidence in winner: 3

Danny Roberts vs. Ramazan Emeev

Really hard to feel confident either way here. Roberts has been bit chinny and struggling with grapplers, but Emeev also bit underwhelming as far as Russian wrestlers go. Probably a messy decision, Roberts probably the value side but you can't really trust on the guy after two years on the shelf at 34. Still, I might have a little punt on him rather than Emeev if the odds are lopsided enough. Either way it's a spot for only degen betting, no value here.

Prediction: Danny Roberts

Confidence in winner: 1

Lupita Godinez vs. Luana Carolina

Honestly I just taped until 3:10 of Luana's last fight and I saw enough to make my mind here. In that moment, Botelho threw extended punch combination into bodylock and took her down. I don't care what happened for rest of the fight for Botelho not close out the win, cause based on Lupita's last showing, that's exactly what she will be doing nonstop for three rounds.

Carolina's last fight was plodding kickboxing until that moment, Lupita will be on her face nonstop and while Luana could be a problem on the feet, she just can't defend a takedown to save her life. Godinez will score a takedown and probably pound her out. Honestly don't think two finishes in couple of weeks time is a far-fetched possibility, can see it getting real ugly real fast for Carolina on the ground.

Prediction: Lupita Godinez & Godinez ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Brandon Davis vs. Danaa Batgerel

Brandon Davis is a fighter who always lets me down, that's all I am gonna say here. Just kidding, let's look at the tape. Batgerel is on two fight first round KO streak, but against two chinny guys so you can't really read too much into in (against Natividad I even called the strike he would get KOd with, too bad I didn't fill my boots with prop bets back then). 

As for Davis, at least him letting me down with a split decision against Giga has aged pretty well, and the guy has made good use of his time out of the UFC since. In the two years since losing that fight, he went 4-0 in the regional scene with couple of finishes. If Batgerel's last couple of KOs can't be read much into, then even less can be read into Davis' win streak, for the guys he beat have over 60 losses combined and only one of them has record better than .500 now. 

So yeah, for all we care Davis might as well have not fought since that Giga fight. All in all I don't really get a strong beat on this fight. I suppose Batgerel is the better fighter technically, at least in striking, but Davis has a solid chin and keeps good pace so as shown in his last two UFC fights, he can make them messy split decisions even if he is kind of outgunned. That's my prediction generally speaking, messy split decision.

Prediction: Brandon Davis

Confidence in winner: 2

Istela Nunes vs. Ariane Carnelossi

There is a bit of uncertainty considering Nunes has not fought since 2018, but all in all it doesn't look like she is good enough for UFC after being handled by smaller fighters in One. She has good Muay Thai credentials, but it does not translate much in practice cause she's been so lost in grappling and that has made her very timid on the feet as well.

Expect Carnelossi to be too strong here. Probably takedown, top control and ground and pound, full mount and TKO. If not, I do think she is the more aggressive stand-up fighter as well and could just win her way with forward pressure. Carnelossi is limited with her physical gifts but she is strong nonetheless and should be able to beat girl who fought at atomweight in One.

In the end, it is very low-level women's MMA, so you can't really get too confident, but doesn't look like it's gonna be close.

Prediction: Ariane Carnelossi 

Confidence in winner: 3