UFC Fight Night 196 Post-Fight Analysis

Honestly solid event, good pacing cause it was jam-packed with fights, just hope the prelim-pacing would have lasted until the end. 

Main Card

My big exposure was aptly in the main event, with me over-estimating Vettori but under-estimating how durable both of the guys are. There was violence just as expected, five rounds of war with about 300 strikes landed both sides, but neither guy ever went down, Vettori wasn't even dropped by a headkick that seemed to land flush.

While I over-estimated how clearly Vettori would beat Costa, Costa backers also didn't want to give credit to Vettori being better than they expected. In the end both guys showed up looking like elite fighters, with Costa digging deep to dominate round five after having seemed gassed since round two. In the end it was Vettori getting more tired trying to put a pace on him. 

So all my big exposure missed as Vettori won a close decision where best Costa could have hoped was a draw thanks to point deduction for eyepoke. Again some Costa backers were angry about it, but those should be always automatic point deduction, and five round fight makes it easier for ref to take the point.

In the co-main Grant Dawson dominated as expected for the first two rounds, but Glenn made him work hard enough for it for him to have total cardio death in the end and almost getting finished. You could argue Glenn won that fight, and definitely if this was fought under my ruleset (you can't be saved by the bell, final engagement goes to it's natural conclusion), Glenn would have submitted Grant. 

In the end the draw kinda shouldn't exist in this sport since both fighters essentially lose when it happens (financially).

I was hoping Joselyne Edwards would improve her wrestling defence, especially given how young fighter she is. Jessica-Rose Clark backers hoped that she would show up utilizing full gamut of MMA techniques and grappling heavy attack. Well latter hopefuls got their wishes, Clark just dominated Edwards on the ground. Ugly fight, but very clear. Disappointing Edwards has not done much to address that glaring hole in her game.

I misread Caceres v Choi but ended up picking the right winner. I was expecting very cautious outside fight from both guys, thinking they'd skirt the outside, but Choi took the center and did enough to force Caceres constantly into heavy exchanges, having Caceres hurt multiple times in the first round. Choi has some serious power man. Unfortunately he fucked himself with an illegal knee that allowed Caceres to recover and survive the round.

It wasn't clear that Choi gassed, but that was my suspected culprit despite him still having better of the stand-up exchanges. However the fact that Caceres so easily climbed to his back and subbed him without much of a fight was suggestive of him having started fading. Either way the fight wasn't even close of going the distance.

Francisco Trinaldo and Dwight Grant had the kind of slow-paced fight we expected, Trinaldo edged that one. Not much to say about it, was on a speculative Grant ITD shot that I don't regret too much, he did land some heavy shots and his only chance was to win it inside the distance.

Nicolae Negumereanu knocked Ike Villanueva out with some back of the head shots. Very low-level fight to start the main card, fast finish there. Should have hammered ITD in hindsight.

Prelims

Gregory Rodrigues is a problem for anyone in the first round. Park isn't a bad fighter, but he was getting outgunned on all ranges, taking a beating on the feet and then absolutely ragdolled on the ground. However, Rodrigues being a muscled BJJ guy, he did the muscled BJJ guy thing and got pretty gassed in the second round and Park came with full intent to drown him in pace. Full rabies mode from Park had Rodrigues looking absolutely gassed, but they were both winging hard shots and landing.

With the last bits of his cardio Rodrigues landed multiple shots in a row, taking Park out to cap off a great, action-packed round two. Had Park lasted minute longer I think the cardio death would have been so bad that Rodrigues would have been ripe to get finished.

Mason Jones barely survived to win against David Onama, who really came out the big winner of the night despite not getting the decision. Onama never gassed in Jones' hectic pace, had him hurt multiple times despite being the smaller guy on short notice. Jones only won the fight cause Onama couldn't stop the takedowns. Gotta scale down expectations for Jones who just gets hit too much and as for Onama, he will be a problem to whoever he faces next.

Tabatha Ricci and Maria Oliveira had a pretty bad fight. Ricci doesn't have much technique on the feet, but was consistently able to drag the fight to the ground so Oliveira wasn't even close to winning that fight. Don't see Ricci having much success against actual UFC level competition though.

Jamie Pickett v Laureano Staropoli was another one of the few dud fights of the evening. Staropoli must have looked back at that Dolidze fight and figured "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em", cause his approach for this fight was just to try to hug Pickett on the fence. Honestly I couldn't even make out a winner in the fight, I had no idea who won by the time of the decision, guess judges just figured Pickett sucked less. Both are fades going forward.

Took a while for Jai Herbert to really let his hands go, but once he did, Khama Worthy's glass chin was ready to go. Don't see Worthy fighting in the UFC any more, and it's hard to see him winning fights at all when he gets KO'd with every solid shot.

Daniel Lacerda seems like a fun fighter. He came out throwing barrage of kicks, then put Jeff Molina through series of submission spots on the ground, before ultimately gassing so bad in the second that he got flatlined. Either way you know this guy is gonna give you action, I'd keep him around even if he loses five times in a row. 

Randa Markos showed up looking like a legit GOAT. It's like she was technically the worse grappler than Souza, but just kept pushing into better positions through aggression. Fun to finally win some money betting Markos.

Zviad Lazishvili had half a round of chain-wrestling against Jonathan Martinez, after which he saw it's not happening. He was not completely blown out on the feet in the 2.5 rounds that followed, but still clearly outmatched. Martinez should have been bigger bet in hindsight as a dog there.

My picks

There was one draw which was a push, and as I once again decided to forego the ML bet for Vettori and just bet ITD (I'm an idiot), me picking winner there didn't help me and my overall picks for the night were 9 out of 13. For props only 2 out of 6 hit, I need to be hitting bigger odds props to make this profitable, once again I would have been best off not betting any.

Best pick was Martinez as a dog, should have made it bigger as mentioned, and worst pick was Vettori ITD. I didn't read that fight completely correctly, but not completely wrong either, the mistake was overconfidence and too much exposure. Should have just hit Vettori ML and been done with it.

After getting slaughtered last weekend, it was nice to bounce back with small win and at least having correct read on most fights. Still need big win to have any room to breathe with my bankroll.