UFC Fight Night 196 Preview & Prediction

Main Event: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori

I really see two scenarios here - the old, pre-Izzy beating Costa shows up, fights aggro and walks Vettori down for couple of rounds, scores KO 10-20 % of the time before fading in later rounds and getting finished late or UD'd. Or Costa shows up with no confidence and limp dicks his way into a 50-45 UD loss.

It works to Costa's favor that he does not need to cut so much weight, but if he is heavier than usual, whatever is gained from no cutting is lost with simply the fact that he isn't in as good of a shape as he used to be. This fight will tell us a lot if there will ever be betting value on Costa again, but you won't have me picking Costa here. Vettori is too tough and too well-rounded, too solid to get KOd here at a high clip. 

Another thing that leans against Costa here is ring rust. He has not been here since his awful showing against Izzy that was a year ago. Not the worst gap to be fair, but still a bit long especially after such a devastating loss to come straight back to fighting one of the best guys in the division.

The thing is, even if limp dick Costa shows up, he still was kinda gassing with Izzy, so actually he probably won't even make it to an uneventful decision. Seems he is getting finished here in any case.

Prediction: Marvin Vettori ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Co-Main Event: Grant Dawson vs. Ricky Glenn

Grant Dawson is a relentless wrestler but it's not like he is a flawless fighter, so we keep waiting for the guy who could be the guy to snap his winning streak. We probably keep waiting though as Glenn is unlikely to be that guy. 

Dawson did have some adversity last time around. He clearly won the third round there though and probably had second in the bag, so he would have beaten Santos anyway, but made it absolutely clear with last second knockout in a fight that really showcased his stamina and tenacity even if the takedowns were a bit harder to come by. 

Glenn got a pretty easy win last time around, countering well to KO the guy with pretty much first shot. So he has some chance of hurting Dawson here but Dawson has improved his striking defence and is probably too durable here to get randomly KOd, and will just win away the minutes with this tenacity.

Prediction: Grant Dawson

Confidence in winner: 4

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Joselyne Edwards

Clark looked like a very good, well-rounded fighter in her last outing... but that was against Sarah Alpar who outside of her grappling threat is a pretty dire fighter. Clark needs to show the full roundedness of her game here against Edwards, for Edwards is solid standing, but will be in trouble if there's lot of grappling.

Clark isn't as good of a fighter as Rosa is, but think she can deal with Edwards striking well enough that even getting some top control can veer rounds her way. All in all I do think this is a close fight, with Edwards being physically strong evening out her grappling deficiencies. It's not like Clark has shown herself to be some grappling savant anyway, but she probably has enough to her to score a couple of takedowns here, and it might make all the difference. 

It's like if you wanna bet Clark, you kinda bet that she has improved a lot, but Edwards is the young prospect here, so if anyone should show up vastly improved it should be her, no?

Prediction: Joselyne Edwards

Confidence in winner: 1

Alex Caceres vs. Seung Woo Choi

Caceres is fun fighter, but he isn't elite. However he is well-rounded and the slew of weak competition he has faced recently has made him look like elite. As for Choi, it's too early to say how good he is, but he definitely seems solid as well.

The both have similar styles, with Choi being more powerful, but both have similar reach and like to fight on the outside, so honestly this is most probably gonna be a close decision with rounds being decided by few strikes. 

All in all tough fight to predict, Caceres is really hard to put away so I think Choi ITD isn't great look, and the ML looks to be in favor of Choi bit too much... that being said, I do think he edges this, but often enough to cover the price? I don't know. I don't see this being a very violent fight with Caceres skirting on the outside, he isn't gonna be like Erosa pushing for more chaos and even if he does get hurt, I can see him managing to survive with some grappling. Gotta see how the goes the distance price is...

Prediction: Alex Caceres

Confidence in winner: 2

Francisco Trinaldo vs. Dwight Grant

It isn't so obvious that Grant is old, but fact is both of these guys are ancient as fighters, and neither throw particularly high volume, so I expect this to be a pretty turgid affair. People wanna say that Trinaldo is too old at 43, but he still went to a decision in a striking battle against Salikhov and he can still take a shot.

Probably Grant just flatlines him, but if not this is exactly the type of match Trinaldo is good at eeking out wins in, outstriking rounds by couple of strikes and taking home split decision. Don't think there's great value here, I just will have a fun bet for Grant so I can at least be hoping for a finish all through the fight

Prediction: Dwight Grant ITD

Confidence in winner: 2

Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Isaac Villanueva

Meme fight. Like only if they make Khadis v Vinicius Moreira they can make it more meme than this. Both Ike's losses and wins have aged terribly, and against Moreira taking so long to finish the worst UFC fighter of all time just shows he isn't very good. I think Ike is tough but very limited. Same thing could perhaps be said about Negu, but at this point of his career, Negu's volume, youth and durability should be better.

However it's an extremely low level fight, so can't really be confident either way. Both guys hit and get hit a ton, so finish very likely.

Prediction: Nicolae Negumereanu

Confidence in winner: 2

Jun Yong Park vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Obama vs. GOAT basically. I mean Park is GOAT right for setting the record strikes against Phillips right? I under-estimated Barack in his debut but going forward won't be doing that.

Jokes aside, Park is a solid fighter. Don't see him really rushing up the rankings, but he can reliably have his way with lesser competition and probably won't be blown out by top guys either. I don't expect him to be in big trouble here either, but Rodrigues probably is bit better everywhere especially early on.

Rodrigues has some losses on his record but he has shown development in his game and indeed while he is known primarily as a BJJ guy, he hung mostly in Todorovic's best range most of their match and outgunned him there, showing that his boxing has improved a lot as well. He hits harder than Park for sure, but provided that Park keeps this one on the feet, I think Park can keep the volume higher.

So overall I'd say Park probably has bit of the decision upside but since I basically never see him finishing Rodrigues, overall Rodrigues is the favorite for me. 

Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues

Confidence in winner: 3

Mason Jones vs. David Onama

Onama has 100 % finish rate, but has just been beating .500 guys or guys with 3 fights in the regional scene, so unless Jones is absolutely massive favorite here in odds, we gonna automatically play him. There's no reason to presume Onama is high UFC level, whereas Jones showed he could hang with Davis and then was giving a beating to Alan Patrick before unfortunately having win snatched away from him with an NC.

Jones has all the traits you want in a high-level guy. Solid technique, lot of aggression, toughness, volume and stamina. I would like if he got hit a little less, but as long as he can take the shots we can still keep picking him. Onama's win condition is mostly early KOs, so high chance this finishes ITD either way. 

Prediction: Mason Jones 

Confidence in winner: 5

Tabatha Ricci vs. Maria de Oliveira Neta

Ugh, the fuck is this fight? Ricci was Fiorot's punching bag, and Neta is completely unknown quantity. Sherdog lists her weight as 108 pounds, so I guess they trying to find someone Ricci's size for her to fight?

Well whatever her real weight, she is a lanky girl so Ricci is gonna be giving up a lot of reach either way. Bit of a flat-footed style of Muay Thai, but she probably has generally the beating of Ricci on the feet here, question is can she avoid the grappling and if not, how good is she in defensive grappling? In regional scene he did show some offensive ability and top control, but against better grappler it can look completely different.

Ricci doesn't seem technically bad, but one has to wonder if he simply has enough size to compete in the UFC. That being said being matched against massive flyweight in the debut makes anyone seem small, think this one is another dog or pass situation. I kinda feel Neta will have this most of the time, but I don't have any confidence in that and it certainly seems Ricci could have a grappling edge here, in which case she would be the better bet.

Either way if Neta throws decent volume and keeps it mostly standing, just because of her reach it's hard to see Ricci winning this.

Prediction: Maria de Oliveira Neta

Confidence in winner: 1

Laureano Staropoli vs. Jamie Pickett

Staropoli was a sore loser after the Dolidze fight but you really should be more angry at yourself if all it takes to beat you is a hug. Though to be fair, Dolidze was much larger guy so it's not like it was easy situation to deal with, Staropoli had some decent moments on the feet if nothing else. 

My gut feeling is that Staropoli is the better fighter here, but it's hard to have any confidence in a guy after seeing so simple approach beat him. Pickett isn't the greatest, but once again he is the larger man so should he be getting outmanuevered here, he might just grab hold of Staropoli and impose his size.

Pickett is athletic but at the same time looked kinda rough as a fighter so far, so I don't really wanna be heavily reliant on him either. I don't know, it will probably be closer than the Dolidze fight, with Staropoli being faster striker and probably landing bit more, Pickett landing bit harder and getting some clinch and top control. I do think Staropoli has probably learned at least some techniques to better escape that clinch control, and Pickett isn't as good there as Dolidze. So instead of 1 min striking / 4 min clinch ratio we probably get something like 2 min striking / 3 min clinch and that gives much better chance for Staropoli to get two rounds here. Pretty close to 50/50 though in the end, guess another dog or pass.

Prediction: Jamie Pickett

Confidence in winner: 2

Khama Worthy vs. Jai Herbert

Worthy has been KO'd 7 times in his career, four times early in the first round. So I think let's see if his glass jaw can take a shot, feels like Herbert R1 should be an autobet here but I would imagine everyone else is hammering that line too after seeing Worthy flattened twice in a row in first round. 

Herbert's been finished twice in a row himself, but at least he did last over 9 minutes each time, so I would still give him durability advantage, and he didn't go completely out like Worthy did. Herbert is not elite, but he is pretty good striker and has finished 80 % of his wins by KO, so he has definitely enough power to further pulverize Worthy's chin.

Worthy is better fighter in terms of skill, but he just has no chin. Mullarkey has shown himself to be a tough guy to beat, but not exactly a powerhouse and he didn't exactly land a monster hook on him, Worthy just went out very easy. Will see if he drastically alters his fighting style to more cautious in attempt to protect his chin better.

I do think Herbert starches Worthy here, but it's definitely not a risk free bet, I can see Worthy coming with a very cautious gameplan that involves lot of grappling. Worthy is not as good of a grappler as Moicano is, but Herbert has almost no grappling defence. Hope he has worked on it cause otherwise that has serious chance to piss in my cereal.

I'm probably gonna have both Herbert ML but ITD is probably still the better bet, Worthy's best chance is via decision, me picking Herbert presupposes that he catches Worthy with a hard shot along the 15 minutes and Worthy can't take it.

Prediction: Jai Herbert

Confidence in winner: 2

Jeff Molina vs. Daniel Lacerda

Molina kinda lost most of that Aori match but edged a close decision. I can kinda see it the way judges saw it, but truth was that completely gassed and destroyed Aori still had him badly hurt in the end. He is fighting a newcomer in Daniel Lacerda, guy with 11-1 record of all finishes with 3 win fight streak coming in from the regionals. His only loss is an injury so in a way you could argue he is undefeated.

It's really hard to say how good these regional can crushers are when they first meet someone somewhat solid. That's what I would call Molina, even if he obviously would not be able to hang with the best of the division. On one hand Lacerda looks powerful, wild guy with some offensive grappling that could therefore be bit of a problem for Molina, but on the other hand he is the kind of wild that Molina probably starts cracking in the end like he was doing to Aori.

Lacerda did score a late round KO in the only fight of his that ever made it to 2nd round, so it seems like he can hang even if fights extend, but I wonder how much of a pace his opponent put on him. Molina is no Royval, but he does still throw a recent volume and ramps up the intensity as the fight go on.

Due to the unknowns, I would say Molina ought to be reasonably big favorite here, but I'd take a punt on Lacerda as a big enough dog. Playing Lacerda ITD / R1 is probably better than anything else. Still it's hard to be confident of anything in this fight given how little info is on both fighters. I roughly know what to expect from Molina, not so much from Lacerda.

Prediction: Jeff Molina

Confidence in winner: 3

Livinha Souza vs. Randa Markos

It's rare to see below .500 fighters in UFC, but this event is rare exception to that when the female goat Markos is fighting, trying to add to her four loss streak. Obviously Markos was pretty hard done to get DQd for relatively benign upkick especially when the opponent was eyepoking the shit out of her, but that doesn't change the fact that she was getting ragdolled and badly beaten in that match. 

Markos is in a tough spot in general. Her striking's always been stiff, lumbering and slow, and now the MMA grappling is evolving to such a point that she is having hard time even grinding girls down with wrestling. She is still tough and has chin, but not sure how far that can still carry her.

As for Souza, she is also coming off of a stoppage loss. I kinda wanna pick Souza just to fade Markos, but truth is she is very unreliable fighter who managed to make Brianna van Buren look like a legit fighter. She is pretty lost on the feet just like Markos is, but also in similar position to Markos in terms that her grappling is just alright, it's unlikely to consistently dominate girls at this level.

So I see this playing out to an ugly, low-volume striking match where the grappling of these girls kinda cancels each other out. In that kind of a fight, decision can go either way, if anything I kinda feel like Markos could simply hustle / forward pressure her way to a win. However Souza has more upside still being inexperienced fighter, whereas with Markos we know we are gonna get the same as in the past or slightly worse.

It's dog or pass situation overall.

Prediction: Randa Markos

Confidence in winner: 2

Jonathan Martinez vs. Zviad Lazishvili

Classic style match-up and you usually favor wrestlers in these instances, however we haven't really seen Martinez struggling with wrestlers in his career, he could very well move well enough to not give Zviad many chances and even if Zviad gets some wrestling going, he isn't like his compatriot Merab with endless gas tank. All in all I like Martinez here, he was winning that Grant fight too before getting badly KOd.

It's been 7 months since that KO and one would definitely hope it is not still affecting the young fighter. Overall I think Martinez by decision / RD 3 could be worth a punt here.

Prediction: Jonathan Martinez

Confidence in winner: 3