UFC 268 Post-Fight Analysis

You can't say that UFC 268 did not deliver. We had absolute wars between guys too stubborn to die and too proud to even block them, fat guys doing flawless somersaults and of course as in MMA usually, some sad outcomes too.

Main Card

No regrets on betting Colby on the main event, it pretty much went as the pre-fight predictions suggested. Both guys had improved, and although Usman was better, Colby was good enough to keep it close, and probably only guy in the division to be able to do so. I see Colby beocming champ in couple of years as Usman has already peaked and will be past his prime soon. For now though, he continues to dominate even if Colby managed to have him a bit hurt at times. Nonetheless clearly deserved win.

In the co-main event Rose and Zhang has very competitive fight with close rounds. Neither really dominated but Rose edged the fight also deservedly on the scorecards. 

Frankie Edgar is cooked but at least did not get starched immediately by Chito Vera. It was always gonna be tough for him to keep relentless grappling pace up at 40 though. In the end he faded and could no longer ground Chito in the final round, and it was only matter of time before he got badly KOd. He's just done and only way he gets another win is if he fights someone pillow-fisted with no grappling defence. 

Shane Burgos and Billy Quarantillo put on a banger, but it didn't feel as crazy fight cause we had just seen Chandler v Gaethje. Either way Billy Q looked great early on, but once Burgos warmed up he was teeing off on Billy and really damaging him. In the end Burgos pulled away for a clear decision win, but for the amount of violence it was miracle no-one got finished.

Same can be said about Gaethje v Chandler. It was just as violent as we expected it to be, but somehow there was no finish despite both guys rocking each other. My only uncertainty with my ITD bet was if they somehow decided to grapple more of fight tactical, but no, both guys were just as explosive and crazy as you would have hoped for. 

Close fight too,  Chandler didn't completely gas and although he took some bad shots, his chin held up. Gaethje also put his chin to the ultimate test, not respecting Chandler's power and staying right on him even when getting tagged. In the end Gaethje deserved the decision in a fight that you never thought would  see the scorecards.

Prelims

There were questionmarks about Alex Pereira's grappling ability and whether Andreas Michailidis could impose his wrestling on him. That's exactly what Michailidis did, pushing him on the fence for all of the first round. However it took absolutely everything he had to do so and Pereira promptly KO'd him like it was nothing to start the second round. 

Al Iaquinta looked rusty and like the game had passed him by against Bobby Green. It was a one sided fight that ended in a fast KO. In hindsight it wasn't surprising, Iaquinta's last performance had already looked  rough and the long break on top of it was always gonna spell trouble against elite striker like Green.

Chris Curtis was the big surprise of the night, struggling to get going for most of the first round as Phil Hawes was steamrolling him, but ultimately Hawes got caught with a hard shot and Curtis didn't miss the opportunity to finish the fight.  That one was hard to see coming, just some MMA randomness.

Imavov v Edmen was another one of those fights that went pretty much exactly as I called it. Edmen looked like lively early on, but predictably gassed pretty soon into the second round, allowing Imavov to absolutely maul him. Poor eye from the ref, that should have been stopped much faster, young Edmen taking lot of extra damage lately. He should be fighting entry-level UFC guys in fun fights, not facing killers near the top ranks of the division.

Ian Garry's hype train did not get derailed completely but it did lose a lot of steam after a rough showing early on with Jordan Williams. I did mention Garry's defensive lapses in the preview, but it was even rougher in the actual fight than I would have imagined. He kept retreating chin high up in the air, getting his head snapped around. Very poor defensive skill, he has good frame but unless he starts sorting that out, it is hard to see him have longevity in this sport.

Gian Villante was probably beating Chrid Barnett on volume, before getting nuked by absolutely devastating wheelkick. Barnett showing off his elite athleticism, flawless somersault followed in celebration. 

John Allan looked game and competitive all fight long against Dustin Jacoby,  but no grappling attempts meant that Jacoby could stay comfortable through the 15 minutes and edged the decision.

Melsik kinda softcocked against Bruno Souza, who didn't look at all like a competent MMA fighter. Just refused to engage and lost by default.

In the opening fight CJ Vergara perhaps put a little bit less pressure on Ode Osbourne than people expected, so the fight went the distance and Osbourne built a lead that he managed to hold onto in the third round when he was badly gassed already.

My picks

I got 6 out of 14 picks right, with props also making me some loss. All in all I came down something like 3.75 units. Not the best of events, but to be fair it wasn't an easy event to bet on. Worst bet was probably Souza, the guy didn't look like he belonged to this level at all. Best pick on the other hand was Vera. Many people still had the sentimental believe that Frankie is just built different, but father time gets us all. Just regret I did not go bigger on that one.

Although the result overall did not go my way, still think lot of my previews were on point. Usman v Colby was close enough, Rose v Zhang could fight 10 times and they'd probably go 5-5 on wins, Billy Q was competitive early on, Gaethje v Chandler not getting a finish was a bad beat, Barnett nuking Villante was randomness.

Pretty happy overall with the bets despite taking a loss. Biggest error was once again betsizing, should have been heavily on Green and Vera, gone smaller on everything else.