UFC 268 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington

Colby and Marty are best fighters in the division by some distance. I do think there is also some day distance between Kamaru and Colby, but Colby is the only guy who has seemed to be able to put something of a competitive fight with Kamaru.

If the fight plays out anywhere near like their first fight played out, it will likely end up being close decision with Usman being the more skilled and heavy-handed fighter but losing rounds to a busier opponent. Just like the first time, Usman being so heavily-favored depends on him getting the finish decent percentage of the time, otherwise we are looking at scoring in close rounds where subjective view of judges matter much more than who is better fighter. 

To put it clear, I expect Usman to be clearly the better fighter, but it will be sufficiently close decision that Colby as a significant underdog is a no-brainer play. Both guys have improved since their first meeting, but I do think Colby had more room to improve. So yeah, I'm gonna play Colby knowing that it's gonna be losing play a lot of the time, just enjoy two of the absolute best going at it.

Prediction: Colby Covington

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Rose Namajunas vs. Weili Zhang

I was on Rose the first fight, think people don't give her the credit she deserves, but either way first win was a little flukey. Neither really threw or landed much and while I was on Rose, I did not expect her to absolutely starch Zhang with the first strike she threw.

That's what makes Rose good though, she isn't the most powerful girl obviously, but she is crafty, and she is gonna need to be all of that against Zhang here. Not much changed since the first fight, I'd say just like the first time around Zhang has to be treated as favorite for her mix of pressure, power and volume, but Rose is gonna keep the rounds close if the fight goes the distance. 

Who I am on depends entirely on the odds, I will have Zhang unless she is big favorite, then it's Rose all the way.

Prediction: Weili Zhang

Confidence in winner: 3

Frankie Edgar vs. Chito Vera

That last KO by Edgar was bad... and Edgar is 40. Considering that, there is a lot of people trusting the old man's chin, speed and cardio to still hold up. I personally am inclined to think that he got starched in a manner that one does not come back as a pro fighter. It was also the third time in last six fights he got KOd in the first round.

Sure, Chito is favorable style match-up. Sure, Chito isn't a big power guy but rather a volume puncher. But once you just no longer can take a shot, it's over. Chito is no can. He might get top controlled for stretches, but isn't going to get completely dominated in grappling either. The guy will create scrambles.

Also he might be volume guy, but he has finished guys with more solid chins than Frankie.

Sadly I think Frankie is getting absolutely killed here. 40 is very old in bantamweight division, it's so old that you have to not only worry about chin and reflexes, but also simply him being able to hold his cardio up in a high-pace match. That's the fight Vera is gonna give him. So even if the fight goes the distance and the chin holds up, does he have enough to him to get two rounds against Vera? Arguably he didn't even against Munhoz, and it's been almost 15 months of more aging since that fight.

I'm not saying the top control path to victory isn't there, but Edgar has to have a little bit too clean performance for my liking for me to bet it. He has to basically shoot and get the takedown early, then shut down Vera's attempts to get up before they fester at all, and avoid getting hurt on the feet before that. If he even gets stuck into extended wrestling exchanges that's already bad for him cause Vera is very violent in the clinch and expecting high wrestling work-rate from a guy at 40 is... iffy, to say the least.

Prediction: Chito Vera

Confidence in winner: 4

Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo

Should be a banger, but I am concerned about Burgos. Lately he has been only in wars and that bizarre Barboza KO might very well have left lasting effects on him. Still only 30 but might have stunted his prime by getting hit too much.

At least he isn't facing the biggest KO threat, it's Billy Q the prototype volume guy. You basically have to grapple him to shut the volume down. 

Definitely if Billy Q KOs Burgos with one shot, he is cooked. That health status is enough of a question mark for me to feel confident here either way, but even if Burgos does last the full distance, Billy Q always stands to win rounds. Burgos can match his output for a long while though, so should be violent while it lasts.

Shane should be comfortably outstriking him particularly early on, but he gets hit so much and Billy Q can mix the takedowns in there to aid slowing him down.

Either way I think I would have Burgos here if he isn't a massive favorite. Billy Q decent shout as a dog, should be competitive fight. As things stand, Billy Q is the only viable play, as much as I think Burgos is the better fighter I won't be laying chalk as that big of a favorite on anyone who can keep pace like Billy Q.

Prediction: Billy Quarantillo

Confidence in winner: 2

Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler

All I say is I hope this will be as fun as everyone expects it to be. Gaethje probably has the durability edge, though I would suspect his chin will have started to crumble after career full of wars. Either way we will know cause Chandler hits hard. Wouldn't be surprised if both guys are rocked at some point of the first round.

Basically it is like 80 % to finish in the first round, and by the second probably both of their gas tanks will be quite low. Chaotic fight with lot of variance, but since I expect Gaethje to be the one to take the center and pressure, and also to be the guy who is more likely to be still able to stand after taking a shot, and also the one who is gonna go for the attrition, I do think he is winning this maybe 60-65 % of the time.

Prediction: Justin Gaethje & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis

Pereira will KO Michailidis most of the time here, but Michailidis dominating him in grappling is possible outcome too. The guy has gastank issues and glassy chin, makes sense why they would match Pereira up with him. High likelihood of Pereira's wrestling getting a little tested but still ending up with a highlight KO. I would say Pereira R1 or Michailidis sub are both highly likely, with some chance of decision win too.

Either way with the information we have now, we can't get overly confident with Pereira. Yes, he looked devastating in his last fight, but he was fighting a .500 welterweight. Michailidis is at least a big guy with some grappling ability. Either way if he fights smart this will be a fight where fast finish will be forced. 

Prediction: Andreas Michailidis & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Al Iaquinta vs. Bobby Green

I almost forgot Al Iaquinta existed. Guess real estate has been treating him good since we haven't heard of him since 2019. If you are new to the sport, Iaquinta is best known for the "best 10 houses sold by Al Iaquinta" meme that was present in MMA on Point video comments back in the day.

Jokes aside, Green has been polar opposite when it comes to activity, having fought 4 times in 2020 and this being the second fight of 2021. Since Iaquinta's last fight, Green has been in the octagon 6 times. He put together a competitive striking match against Fiziev last time, which makes me more likely to trust him here. Still, Green kinda allows fights to slide out of his hands as well, and Iaquinta will probably fight in an aggressive manner.

Either way, the strong point of both of these guys is boxing, and I hope they primarily box, would be a fun fight. In that kind of a fight, I would favor Bobby Green anyway.

Prediction: Bobby Green

Confidence in winner: 3

Phil Hawes vs. Chris Curtis

Curtis is something of a regional journeyman who had a miserable time in PFL in 2019 but since went on a streak against other journeymen. He has 8 losses on his career but has only been finished twice and against one of the PFL's best in Ray Cooper III last time around, before that his only finished loss was back in 2011.

So he will be tough to finish but ought to be in trouble against Hawes who is just better in every range. The only way Hawes loses here is basically cardio death, which is possible since he is more built for power than endurance. 

Prediction: Phil Hawes

Confidence in winner: 3

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Nassourdine Imavov

For one round, Edmen is one of the best fighters in the division. Unfortunately, he will never be built for a hard three found fight, and Imavov basically fights at a good pace and is solid enough to get rounds in most fights, was unlucky not the get the decision against Hawes for instance. I do think there is small possibility of Edmen smashing Imavov in the first round, then riding top control in second to spare some gas to survive to a tight decision win, but large part of Edmen's win percentage will be him finishing Imavov early on.

Basically every time he gets extended, Edmen is in trouble, and Imavov is highly likely to get this fight deep. 

Prediction: Nassourdine Imavov & Edmen R1

Confidence in winner: 3

Ian Garry vs. Jordan Williams

I like Jordan Williams in that he managed to make it to UFC level despite a handicap like diabetes is. However, in MMA, always bet on the sad outcome. It just seems like at this point, it is all starting to become a little too much for him.

He is facing an inexperienced, but tall welterweight here who is also undefeated in Ian Garry. Garry is 7-0 with 5 finishes and comes from the Cage Warriors, having recently won the title there. He also KO'd Rostem Akman who had a brief UFC stint couple of years ago. All in all Garry seems like a legit guy who could develop into a good UFC fighter. At 23 there is huge upside on him and Williams is definitely not the toughest opponent he could get.

That's not to say Williams doesn't have any chance here. He did get dropped pretty easily by Gall, but even if his chin is suspect, he can still throw with power. That's where the only uncertainty in this match really lies, cause Garry does have that tall guy tendency of just leaning back with chin exposed, Jordan is definitely powerful and rangy enough to find the button. If he doesn't though, this will turn ugly fast.

Prediction: Ian Garry & Garry ITD & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 4

Gian Villante vs. Chris Barnett

The ultimate fat guy fight. Though to be fair, Villante didn't do nearly as bad against Collier than I remembered. When was the last time you saw a heavyweight be throwing 50 significant strikes per round? Villante was always gonna drown in that kind of a volume. At HW he seems well able to take a shot and able to keep a decent pace as well. Obviously against most he will still be at a skill deficit, but perhaps Chris Barnett is not one of those opponents. 

Well, I don't know, cause for the little while when he was fresh against Rothwell, he did catch him with some sharp shots despite the size disadvantage. Obviously on short notice he was always gonna gas. The question really is how much better can a guy with that build look with a full camp.

Villante doesn't put crazy pace but I do think he might forward pressure just enough to get total cardio death out of Barnett. Barnett on the other hand will land both lot of punches and leg kicks, and his path to victory probably involves disabling Villante's lead leg. 

Think Barnett is gonna win the first round at a decent clip, but then start to fade as the fight progresses. All in all it seems pretty close on one paper. If Villante wasn't so hittable and susceptible to leg kicks, I would favor him more, now I only favor him slightly. The second round can be close enough for Barnett to win it, and if Villante doesn't push the pace enough he might still have enough to him to survive the third. Gotta see how the odds have developed, I think I would have Villante as a slight favorite here.

Prediction: Gian Villante

Confidence in winner: 3

John Allan vs. Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby will have this on the feet, but Allan is live for a grapplefuck win and should not be absolutely destroyed on the feet. Expecting a competitive bout here, but don't have really a beat as to how it will go. I don't think Allan will come crazy trying to takedown Jacoby at any expense, but will nonetheless pressure and push for the clinches. 

Stewart managed to put Jacoby down but failed to keep him there, Allan will have to do better than that to have a chance here. Still, would rate this as very even fight. Both guys tough and somewhat defensively responsible, so I am not expecting a finish.

Allan big underdog, playable with that grapplefuck path in mind.

Prediction: John Allan

Confidence in winner: 2

Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Bruno Souza 

Say what you want about Edmund as a coach but fact it he has gotten lot of exciting KO artists into UFC. Well at least a couple and that's already great. I went balls deep on Melsik last time around for him to get that fast KO in 1st... so of course he gets is couple of minutes into the 2nd. The guy hits hard and is on you non-stop forcing a finish, so his finish rate will stay high until he meets someone too stubborn to die.

As for Souza, he comes from LFA having won the title there in August. He has a solid record and has not lost a fight since his pro debut in 2016. Still, he did get hurt pretty bad in that fight early on and if he gets caught clean on the chin against Melsik like that, especially as the smaller man, I see this fight turning really bad for him pretty quick.

Still Melsik is exactly the kind of guy you have to be very vary with of over-rating him. He has ironically probably fought even rougher competition in UFC and Contender than Souza in LFA, fights at the kind of pace where he does tend to fade towards the end, and Souza in all likelihood has the grappling advantage here.

So I feel Melsik early, Souza later is the most likely trend of this fight. Could be fun to bet something like Melsik R1, Souza R2 & R3 and then watch Melsik win again in the early minutes of the second.

Souza being such a massive underdog makes this pretty easy bet to make. There are concerns so it will have to be a small punt, but Melsik hasn't shown anything to make me think a competent fighter wouldn't be able to make it close after weathering the early storm.

Prediction: Bruno Souza

Confidence in winner: 2

Carlos Vergara vs. Ode Osbourne 

I was on Osbourne on that Manel Kape fight and well... that looked good for about 4 minutes, then he was nuked out of existence.

He gets a drop in competition - at least I would assume so - facing the UFC newcomer Vergara. Vergara is a fresh face from the UFC Contender series, and has to deal with a sizeable 5 inch reach disadvantage and probably some size disadvantage aside that too.

He did go after his Contender opponent hard, but apparently that's an unusual fight for him. Certainly I think Osbourne can make him pay if Vergara tries to steamroll him like that. Osbourne isn't the craftiest guy in the division but he is long and powerful and has decent tools in terms of skill. All in all I think Vergara could make it somewhat competitive, but I think he gets stung early couple of times and then slows down.

Can't say that with any confidence though. Too little reliable info on Vergara for now, and Osbourne, while clearly not elite, is no can either. If Vergara does show up really after it, then yeah Osbourne's first round finish streak is due for continuing. Lot if dictated though based on how Vergara will decide to fight.

Prediction: Ode Osbourne & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3