UFC Fight Night 197 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez

Holloway and Volkanovski are in a class of their own in this division, but I feel like odds definitely sell Yair short here. Sure, most of the time if this goes full five rounds, Holloway overwhelms him with volume, but are we forgetting Yair is a good striker as well and usually struggles more with guys who can also wrestle?

Max isn't gonna wrestle. Max is gonna stand toe-to-toe with Yair and gonna be there to be countered. Also Yair has not fought in two years, which on one hand might mean some ring rust, but on the other and with him still being only 29 means he has probably made big strides to his game.

I feel like Yair is live to win often enough to warrant a poke at these odds. His biggest win condition is obviously getting Max badly hurt early to finish him, which is easier said than done considering Max's iron chin, but I don't think winning a decision is impossible either if he can just disable Max to some extent with the early striking. 

I'd love another masterclass from Holloway though, but don't think there's betting value in him.

Prediction: Yair Rodriguez & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Ben Rothwell vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima

I love Big Ben but his style isn't fundamentally sound. Yea he has made it work and can beat pretty solid level of competition with it, but I think Marcos Rogerio de Lima is gonna be the more fundamentally sound guy here. He does basics well, isn't high-level by any means, but basics go a long way when you are a big guy.

Boxing combinations, leg kicks, takedown defence, I think it all will be on display here as De Lima grinds out Big Ben. I mean who has Big Ben really beaten? Other aging, dysfunctional guys and Chris Barnett, who in hindsight seems like a better win than I originally even thought.

Then again, two of Ben's recent wins, Struve and OSP, actually finished de Lima so I don't know. I guess if I do lose this bet, Big Ben winning will be good for the memes at least.

Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima & De Lima ITD

Confidence in winner: 2

Felicia Spencer vs. Leah Letson

I know Spencer has challenged for the title but I still won't pretend that this is anything else except low-level women's MMA. Small whatever punt on Letson. It wouldn't take that much to actually beat Spencer.

Prediction: Leah Letson

Confidence in winner: 1

Yadong Song vs. Julio Arce

Bantamweight is such a shark tank and Song has been right at the thick of that shark tank lately, going into close decisions with many of the top contenders. Arce is solid as well, but I would still say bit of a step down. Still, the guy beat Ige in unanimous decision so to say he isn't amongst that same group of shark's would be perhaps selling him short.

Definitely expecting this to be another very close decision with both of them landing their own offense. Importantly, while I rate Song overall higher, Arce is better outside fighter, so Song will have to be proactively closing the distance or he gets picked apart here. All in all I would say that makes Arce playable here as a dog. 

Prediction: Julio Arce & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3

Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams

Baeza is good prospect that keeps on improving, but hit the wall against elite competition in Ponzinibbio last time. Still a fair showing, but Khaos Williams seems like the real deal as well. After nuking few guys with a fast KOs, Khaos went 1-1 in couple of decision fights. 

Baeza probably winning minutes here, but I don't see Khaos being far behind. I think beating Semelsberger via decision is a really strong indicator that Khaos can put in enough volume as well. Probably will be a fight of tight margins.

Honestly interesting fight, I would pick whoever is the underdog though I do favor Baeza to win this most of the time.

Prediction: Khaos Williams & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Thiago Moises vs. Joel Alvarez

Moises hit the wall last time around being completely dominated by arguably the best fighter in the division, Alvarez should be much more comfortable match-up for a guy who I have been pretty consistently under-rating thus far.

Alvarez is pretty solid looking prospect though and will have huge 6.5 inch reach advantage here. That being said, with Moises being solid kicker and good at grappling they should not be exchanging hands that much, still interesting to note. Also Moises probably is better fighter than Ismagulov who handed Alvarez his last defeat, so overall I would favor Moises in this match-up. 

Alvarez has dangerous grappling game but since Moises is also good there, I am not expecting him to get caught in there, and will probably have cardio advantage going deep.

Prediction: Thiago Moises

Confidence in winner: 3

Cynthia Calvillo vs. Andrea Lee

Calvillo just isn't very good. Andrea Lee is at least amongst the top of the division and solid everywhere. She might lose a close decision, but generally I think she is winning here most of the time. 

Prediction: Andrea Lee

Confidence in winner: 3

Sean Woodson vs. Collin Anglin

Anglin isn't good enough for UFC lol, he is gonna get finished here again. Woodson's hype train has been derailed to large part, but he should be clearly the better fighter here, his range and boxing will be big problem to most fighters, and Anglin is very hittable.

Prediction: Sean Woodson & Woodson ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Cortney Casey vs. Liana Jojua 

Good luck trying to pick a side on Casey fight. These low-level .500 women's MMA veteran's against relatively poor competition is a pretty tough ask. Casey does have all the physical advantages here and Jojua is probably too willing to grapple from the bottom to be consistently winning rounds. 

I don't know, I just really don't wanna pick Casey. Lost too many bets on her.

Prediction: Liana Jojua via submission

Confidence in winner: 1

Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Alves

Is Diakiese over-rated? Probably. Has he fallen so far that Alves beats him? Probably not, but I think his meat and potatoes Muay Thai can at least make for a fun and competitive fight.

Prediction: Marc Diakiese & Diakiese ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Da Un Jung

Pretty messy fight to predict. Both guys who are pretty hittable and powerful, but also durable. Just feel like Jung is the more natural fighter of the two, but Kennedy is physically far more talented. Rare instance of Jung being completely dominated in reach department, hard to say how he will react to that.

Should be pretty messy and volatile fight, I just thing Jung is gonna more consistently win minutes, but even if he is completely outgunning Kennedy on the feet, hard to see a finish cause Kennedy has stupidly hard head.

Prediction: Da Un Jung

Confidence in winner: 2

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