UFC Fight Night 198 Post-Fight Analysis

Main Card

I don't know what shrooms were people on Twitter claiming it was close fight or that Tate was winning on, but either way that fight was not really even competitive. All the hard and clean shots were landed by Vieira - only thing that was going for Tate was some explosions at the end of the round that got the recency bias on her side, and the fact that she was sort of the one moving forward, though even so she wasn't pressing the action much either. Only clueless people scored anything more than one round for Tate.

It was a fight between fighter who was champ in a different, less developed era of the sport and even then got to be the champion as a brawler, and is now been away for a few years, and fighter who sort of could be good if she did something, but just allows fights to drift past her so basically anyone who has some skill and engages will beat her.

So not a high-level match, to be honest I think Tate had kind of shades of BJ Penn in his last match against Frankie, just a strange fighting style that wasn't fundamentally sound at all. If Vieira actually went after it, she could have chopped off Tate's leg and gotten her out of there in less than 15 minutes. Even with her kinda just staring at Tate she bloodied her up.

Enough about the main event, Sean Brady had to dig deep against Chiesa in the biggest test of his career. After looking gassy and getting pieced up on the feet, Brady dug deep and got the back control in each round to secure the decision. Great to overcome adversity against a top opponent, but it's kinda concerning Chiesa pieces you up on the feet. Brady has a ceiling but that ceiling is very close to the top of rankings.

Taila Santos made easy work of Joanne Wood, that fight went as I predicted it, just sad I didn't fill my boots more with Santos. Guess I should have maxbet in hindsight? Santos had it covered in all ranges and Wood was never gonna just one shot KO her. Wish I had ITD too since I though she is so much better anyway.

Kyung Ho Kang was absolutely piecing up Rani Yahya, but just like Brady in Co-Main, Yahya dug deep and did what he had to, Kang fought like a retard not avoiding the ground game and thus got controlled for two rounds for a UD loss.

Grant and Yanez fought a fun scrap that was as violent as advertised, but I really need to stop hammering those ITD bets and just go for the decisions, I am getting killed. People are too stubborn to die on UFC level even in most brutal wars.

Prelims

I keep under-estimating Pat Sabatini at my own peril, and he keeps putting on grappling clinics on guys. Even with how much grappling he has done, he has not shown signs either that his style would gas him out, I seriously need to start rating him higher. High level guys will expose his lack of striking, but at this middling level he still pieces everyone up.

Rafa Garcia and Natan Levy had a pretty violent fight as well, so of course it went to a decision, and ultimately Levy was too gassed and couldn't stop the takedowns consistently enough.

Called the Loopy v Loma fight pretty much correctly as well, very similar fight to Loma's Hughes fight, but Loopy much better at takedowns and striking and more importantly more urgent. Lot of top control, also someone will eventually flatline Loma since she doesn't move her head at all. Loopy was landing a lot of very clean shots. That pure Muay Thai style especially without the tight guard is not gonna carry her far in MMA, especially with her lack of size, but she is gritty nonetheless and made Loopy work hard for her takedowns.

Cody Durden and Qileng Aori had a violent, close fight. Durden seemed to be gassed after first but caught a second wind after starting to land more on Qileng in the second. Still it seemed Qileng was winning the latter two rounds. Judges disagreed as Durden got the unanimous decision.

Sean Soriano fought exactly the first round that I hoped for. His fight totally collapsed in the latter two rounds though. Nuerdanbieke didn't suddenly become some top level wrestler, he is alright at it, but Soriano just hang too much in those grappling exchanges and ended up getting punished for it. It's a shame cause Soriano was having a big edge on the feet.

Lost big on that one but even in hindsight, I can't think of how I could have warranted a bet on Nuerdanbieke there. He was underdog but he was also decidedly the worse fighter and will be fade every time at that level, unless it's against someone with poor takedown defence. Guess in the end the main winner of this one is Nuerdanbieke's last opponent. 

Luana Pinheiro wasn't as aggressive as first time around, but still managed to gas herself out a little against Sam Hughes. Markos would have had a real shot to turn the fight around against her if she had not been DQ'd. Hughes never even attempted to put enough of a pace on her though. 

My bets

Picks went 5/11, props even worse at 0/5. I seriously need to start betting on more decisions, these guys are just made of stone. In general I should have much less exposure on the prop bets. Either way, I took 5 units up the ass this time, cancelling out the last events good win. It's one step forward and two steps back as usual for me.

Best pick was Taila Santos, made it look easy, should have gone bigger as mentioned, worst pick probably one of the prop bets for fights to finish ITD. 

Oh well, I've been looking at worse situations lately so overall I am not too bothered. I didn't call lot of fights completely wrong, just small wrong assessment and close fights that could go either way. Either way I still have enough bankroll that I won't be all in in every event, so that's something to be happy about. It's not bad moment to have a week for a break to reflect.