UFC 269 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Dustin Poirier vs. Charles Oliveira

Honestly would expect a good, close fight. Kind of a similar dynamic to Khabib fight for Poirier that it ought to be very competitive on the feet, but Oliveira has big edge in grappling. No, I am not saying he is as good as Khabib, but he has an advantage, just in a different manner than Khabib does. 

If it does end up being extended stand-up affair, I do give clear edge to Dustin, but it's not like Chucky Olives will be completely outgunned either. I just do think that he will be at durability disadvantage here. Either way both guys are very hittable and like to throw a lot of volume,  if this somehow goes the distance it will be very violent. 

Even in purely stand-up I do think Charles can win at least one round, and who's to say he can't get this fight to ground at least couple of times to edge close rounds? Honestly bit baffled how you  can have Charles as a dog here. Only slightly worse on the feet but with clear grappling advantage, makes this his fight to lose imo.

Predictoon: Charles Oliveira / Oliveira ITD* / FDGTD*

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena

This ought to be one of the most uncompetitive of Nunes' recent match-ups. There is some concerns about the layoff and not having fought at bantamweight in a long time, but yeah, just goes to show Nunes' worst enemy in this fight is herself.

If normal Nunes shows up, she dusts Pena pretty fast. If not, it might get interesting but either way Pena should have her work cut out for her.

Would rather be on Nunes ITD here given the awful price. If she does end up covering her price, Pena isn't gonna be around long anyway.

Prediction: Amanda Nunes ITD*

Confidence in winner: 4

Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Guy entering his prime vs. guy on a slow decline. Both obviously very solid fighters, Ponz being a title contender in his prime and Neal getting pretty close there, and I think it is reasonable to expect this to be close fight decided by small moments.

With Neal's power though even small moments can turn into decisive victories, and at 35 you gotta worry about Ponz' durability. 

Prediction: Geoff Neal* / Neal ITD* / Neal R1*

Confidence in winner: 3

Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt

My first instinct is that this will be a finish almost 100 %, but on closer thought probably not so much, after all both might show up kinda timid and there just isn't lot of throwing to facilitate that finish. 

It's Cody No Chin at 125 after all, and even though he did show some chin last time around, he is still getting hit way too much. On the other hand his hard-hitting boxing that finished guys quickly is what got him to the title in the first place, and he ought to be relatively even more powerful at 125. 

Kai Kara-France is not remarkably powerful but  he is powerful enough as the last fight showed, and if there do exchange wildly I do think someone is getting dropped. It's really more a matter of what type fight it is, if both decide to approach fight smart cautious of the other guy's offense, it might be too timid for a certain ITD. I still gotta go with my instinct and expect that finish.

As for winner, when has going down a weight class ever worked out for guys unless they were already undersized in their initial weight class? I feel like KKF probably is the more likely  one to keep it all together over 15 minutes.

Prediction: Kai Kara-France* / FDGTD*

Confidence in winner: 2

Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O'Malley

It's set-up for O'Malley to get another finish. Paiva ought to be competitive, but he is hittable and smaller, exactly the kind of competition rangy and explosive O'Malley feasts on. O'Malley is still fragile, but outside random injury I think O'Malley dominates this fight. Perhaps if someone manages to put better pressure on O'Malley than Moutinho did they could give him trouble, but I think if Paiva were to walk Suga down like that, he would get absolutely nuked.

I don't know, I think most likely scenario is O'Malley coasting to  victory here, but I wouldn't be overly confident of the KO. I think Paiva will be rocked a couple of times, but he isn't an easy guy to finish, especially now at bantamweight.

Prediction: Sean O'Malley* / O'Malley ITD *

Confidence in winner: 5

Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige

I want to be on Emmett here but can't really verbalize why given that he tends to be lower volume fighter of the two so kinda relying on landing big shots or outgrappling Ige here. Either way, Emmett with a vicious KO for me here, his age is a bit of a concern but I don't think Ige is the guy to expose that.

Prediction: Josh Emmett* / Emmett ITD*

Confidence in winner: 3

Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz

I watched the tape... and I don't really feel strongly about this one. People seem to favor Munhoz in their predictions, saying squeaking close decision is pretty much all Cruz can get... which very well might be true, but the guy made a career out of squeaking close decisions. This seems that type of fight with Munhoz being hittable and not the most savvy  offensive guy that Cruz could just barely keep outlanding him all through the fight.

Still I am concerned about Cruz' age and durability. People are starting to figure out his odd timing and him being fundamentally unsound does tend to leave him prone to getting nuked.

In fact I think Cruz is winning a decision here consistently, so if I am gonna bet on Munhoz winning here, I would rather bet on him catching Cruz with something big and finish him instead of the moneyline.

Prediction: Pedro Munhoz ITD*

Confidence in winner: 2

Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa

Neither of these guys is particularly urgent with their fighting style, both are also durable, so as far as HW fight goes, this might be a good GTD spot. That being the case, it'd probably be very close decision. I would give Sakai the edge, he probably is the more technical one. 

It's also worth it to bet on Sakai so if you lose, you get to see another shoey.

Prediction: Augusto Sakai / FGTD*

Confidence in winner: 2

Bruno Silva vs. Jordan Wright

This one could go either way, both are hittable guys with good power. Wright has pretty solid clinch game but that also probably looked better than it really is cause his last opponent is really bad. Silva might just get him out of there early, but if this one goes on a little longer it should be a close fight. Either way definitely worth a punt as a dog.

Prediction: Jordan Wright

Confidence in winner: 3

Andre Muniz vs. Eryk Anders

Meh Muniz might takedown Anders and sub him, but overall he is low-volume, positionally unsound and Anders has pretty good takedown defence, so I suppose he will lose this by taking Mnuiz down and getting subbed from the guard. Either way I am ready to lose money on Anders again.

Prediction: Eryk Anders

Confidence in winner: 3

Miranda Maverick vs. Erin Blanchfield

No strong feel either way here, Maverick probably the overall more solid fighter, but I don't rate her as the big prospect everyone thinks she is. Just a powerful, fundamentally sound girl. Blanchfield could feasibly outgrapple her, but I wouldn't bet on that.

Prediction: Miranda Maverick

Confidence in winner: 2

Ryan Hall vs. Darrick Minner

This one's tough one to weigh, literally game of small margins. You got guy with low fight IQ who spews out his gas tank in five minutes by overcommitting to low-percentage submissions (though he is specialist in those positions) and really isn't UFC level going against a guy who just isn't a MMA fighter at all, purely a specialist of those lowpercentage submissions.

So if Minner just fights smart, he easily defeats Hall by striking. He just is so enthusiastic grappler that it's hard to tuust on him to not make some error of going into Hall's guard or something. Also he probably will be more gassed by the end and all it takes against Hall is one mistake deep into the third and you're stuck in a leglock or something. It's thin margins to trust on Minner here.

Regardless of whether Minner goes psycho in 1st or not, Hall is pretty fragile and defensively irresponsible, so I don't think it's far fetched that Minner hurts him early and gets him out of there just like Topuria did. On othe other hand all it takes is momentarily lapse for Hall to snatch snatch something, so all I am pretty sure of is that this one isn't going the distance. 

Prediction: Darrick Minner ITD / Minner R1 / Hall by submission / FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2

Randy Costa vs. Tony Kelley

1st round sprinter vs. cardio guy. Costa early, Kelley late. Honestly Costa is probably the better fighter, and doesn't even have terrible cardio, he just spends it all with non-stop attacking in the first round. That could very well overwhelm Kelley who ought to be more hittable than Yanez. It's also  possible that Costa gets better at pacing himself here and just gets a solid victory instead of just gassing out.

That's the side I prefer here, Kelley can win but either way it would have to happen through a lot of adversity, and that's not really something I want to bet on.

Prediction: Randy Costa / Costa ITD / Costa R1

Confidence in winner: 3

Gillian Robertson vs. Priscilla Cachoeira

Still not confident  Cachoeira is good enough for this level, but on the other hand if this is mostly contested on the feet, Robertson is gonna be in trouble. Still, she is grappling specialist and I figure he would get some good submission attempts going over the course of 15 min.

Prediction: Gillian Robertson / Robertson by Submission / FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 3