UFC Fight Night 199 Post-Fight Analysis

Year ends with an event that was like many others before it, ups and downs within the event itself. I tend to either win big in the beginning only to lose it all in the end, or lose big in the beginning only to barely recover.

Main Card

Derrick Lewis did what he always does in the main event. Patient approach with not much happening in the fight until he managed to touch Daukaus, and when this guy touches you, you are going unconscious. As for Daukaus, still can't really tell how good he is, but he certainly didn't get much going on before getting dropped.

Belal Muhammad did what was always the most likely thing, he was one of the big values on the card and the guy who really saved my night. Nonstop, relentless grappling to not allow Wonderboy and moments to strike on the outside - still some touch and go moments whenever there was a little bit of space. 

For Wonderboy, surely the title shot is dead now, all he can beat at this point would be striking specialists who refuse to or are unable to chain-wrestle. Burns and Belal showed the formula to beating him and the top guys can all do it. 

Amanda Lemos almost killed Angela Hill in the first, but Hill came back to hurt Lemos late on in the round. What then followed was two close rounds where Lemos was slowed down but still dangerous and able to at least closely match Hill's output. I livebet Hill and don't regret it as she was a dog, but ultimately it ended in a close decision loss that could have gone either way. It was that kind of night, lot of bets nearly hitting, in this case both the Hill livebet and Lemos R1 were close to cashing, only for me to find myself more down.

Ricky Simon was another guy who saved my night, at 39 Assuncao was always gonna be ancient for bantamweight and his chin certainly seems to be going as now a wrestler KOd him. He didn't have much paths to victory there and that's how it turned out. 

Diego Ferreira was building into the fight with Mateusz Gamrot after close first round when Gamrot caught him with a knee to the body that seemed to injure the veteran and thus meant the fight was over. Somewhat flukey, but Gamrot was on top in that fight, still it was sufficiently close enough that I'd probably not change my bet in hindsight either. Ferreira certainly had a chance there to eek out a close decision.

It's one thing to regret making a wrong bet, but another kind of pain to make the right bet but not to go heavy enough on it. Cub Swanson absolutely outclassed Darren Elkins, destroying him completely in two minutes while taking barely any damage at all himself. Should have filled my bags with the usual Swanson ML, Swanson ITD and Swanson R1 combo, but what can I say, I always miss the spots where I should do it and then do it at completely wrong spots.

Prelims

Dustin Stoltzfus nearly had it, but it had been a night of awful fight IQ and that's what ultimately decided it. Clearly on his way to a close decision win, they were grappling with Stoltzfus on top, when he for some inexplicable reason decided to dive for a leg instead of just holding top position. This was beginning of the end as GM3 took the back and submitted him. Well, to be fair, that's what he does.

Justin Tafa showed some improvement against Harry Hunsucker before KOing him with a blocked head kick. That said, Hunsucker is not a much of a measuring stick. 

I wrote that people under-estimate Sarj's gas tank or something to that effect and Sarj goes out there and thanks me for the confidence by completely gassing and getting bodyshot KOed by Gatto. I don't know if I had felt confident about being on Gatto either given she got pretty much dominated early on, but yea, another wrong read, would have been better to be on the dog again. Gatto ITD wouldn't have been bad in hindsight I guess.

Andre Ewell remains the classic one round man, but he wasn't that close to getting his first ever UFC R1 finish against Jourdain, and Jourdain then comfortably took over for the latter rounds and should have gotten a finish. Ref was allowing a lot of punishment though and Ewell remained tough, so it went full distance. 

Raquel Pennington and Macy Chiasson had a close first round, but Raquel ultimately showed herself to be much better fighter and got a submission. I need to stop under-estimating these veterans against physically imposing lower level fighters.

Don'Tale Mayes showed vastly improved wrestling against Josh Parisian who also fought like a retard. After first round it was clear he was completely outgunned in grappling... yet he kept going there and getting then top controlled and dominated. Ultimately Mayes got the finish when Herb was like whatever guess we have seen enough. 

In the first fight Matt Sayles was comfortably controlling the striking, but it was a night of idiot IQ so hey, let's grapple the grappling specialist and get subbed.

My Picks

5/13 continues the trend of getting less than half right. I missed the only live bet of the night as well, but I also hit the Simon ITD prop and ended up overall getting to about 2 unit profit which was surprising but good.

As for the year overall, it obviously was hard and overall I took a sizeable loss. I know this from my dwindling bankroll size, though I lost dozens of units in football bets especially during Euros. I didn't do any proper tracking, but given I won most nights in just straight picks, my gut feeling is that I'm probably breaking even on those, but I've taken a lot of losses in prop bets that take me overall into losing side for the year.

At least I survived to the end of the year without getting bust and even had some winning events. My bankroll is still a little shallow for my liking, but on the other hand I wouldn't want to top it up either only to keep losing. 

Welcome break of few weeks to reflect about going forward, all the time and effort I invest to this warrants better results than I have been getting.