UFC Fight Night 199 Preview & Predictions

 Main Event: Chris Daukaus vs. Derrick Lewis

To be fair, I have not really made up my mind if I think Daukaus is good or not, but it doesn't really matter, cause Lewis is the type of guy to consistently beat guys leagues above his own skill level. Since I don't feel any strong way either way I'd rather be hoping for the fun Lewis KO than anything else.

It might be that for all the experience that Lewis has this could also turn out to be an easy fight, after all Daukaus hasn't really beaten anyone of note yet. 

Might be also worth it to bet the ITD, then again Daukaus might just play it safe and try to point fight Lewis. Definitely wouldn't get on it for too chalky odds. 

Prediction: Derrick Lewis via KO

Confidence in winner: 2

Co-Main Event: Belal Muhammad vs. Stephen Thompson

The Karate Hottie is one of the most likable fighters on the roster, but is already 38 and coming off of his most disappointing performance in recent memory against Burns. Belal should be able to at least make it interesting cause he is well rounded, durable and pushes forward non-stop. Belal's ceiling is much lower, but Thompson has to be past his prime now by now. 

If I wanna bet Thompson here I would probably grap ITD, Belal is gonna be there for the counters. So in my eyes this seems kinda binary, either we see Belal overwhelm Thompson or vintage Thompson KO. Will be whatever has the best odds.

Prediction: Belal Muhammad

Confidence in winner: 3

Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill

If there's someone to bet R1 on UFC Strawweight division, it's Lemos. Three first round finishes in her last three, Lemos has some real power for the size. Hill is near elite for the division though, has never been KOd and is always in shape, throwing lot of volume and should be defensively pretty responsible too. I guess overall I lean on Hill here via just making Lemos work too hard, but Lemos is definitely live to just chin him early on.

Hill is already 36 and might be having waning durability, and it is fair to say he hasn't faced a big puncher like this except maybe Andrade, but Andrade is really little bit different kind of opponent.

All in all would have Lemos R1 on big enough odds, otherwise probably Hill ML.

Prediction: Lemos R1

Confidence in winner: 3

Raphael Assuncao vs. Ricky Simon

Assuncao is elite, bigger hitter and the overall more skilled fighter, but he is ancient in bantamweight years and coming off of a bad KO loss against Garbrandt. Simon will be coming at him nonstop and unless he gets nuked early, I don't see Assuncao having much success here. 

Lot of ways he could lose, like his chin being completely gone since the Garbrandt KO and just general age, him not having much endurance because of age. It's not big differences, but even small drop changes a lot at UFC level. Pretty good chance Simon gets it done inside the distance too.

Prediction: Ricky Simon & Simon ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Is CDF too old or has he just bought two crazy-paced fights against two elite grapplers? I dunno but I rated Ferreira as one of the best fighters of the division prior to the recent skid, it's just Gillespie and Dariush are elite too and Gamrot is not a big drop from there. Probably Gamrot's ceiling is pretty close to the top of the division as well, just don't think he is all the way there yet.

Expect a close fight here, win or lose should be a good learning experience for the prospect. I trust on Ferreira to not just have become old yet.

Prediction: Diego Ferreira

Confidence in winner: 3

Cub Swanson vs. Darren Elkins

I really don't know. It's two guys with lot of high-level competition and long UFC careers, so it's not matter of lack of information, it's just that both guys are kinda shot in different ways. I would think Cub is still much better fighter than Elkins ever was, but Elkins can still do the whole take damage until you gas out kind of thing. 

Still if Cub laid an absolute was on Kron Gracie, I am pretty sure he will do that to Elkins. The option is that he just randomly dies and it will be very sad for everyone involved.

Prediction: Cub Swanson

Confidence in winner: 2

Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Kind of a mess, I guess GM3 will stumble into a submission but he might get nuked anytime too. Not that Stoltzfus is some powerhouse but it's GM3. He has couple of impressive victories against better guys than Stoltzfus, but you can't really trust him to be fundamentally much better fighter. If he survives long his grappling makes him a problem against anyone, but I think this will be a messy fight especially if it goes the distance, would rather be on the dog.

Prediction: Dustin Soltzfus

Confidence in winner: 2

Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry

Barcelos is absolute elite, unless this newcomer is next coming of Christ, he should have a pretty rude awakening in his UFC debut.

Prediction: Raoni Barcelos

Confidence in winner: 4

Justin Tafa vs. Harry Hunsucker

I'm gonna call Hunsucker Honeysucker since that's what Tai Tuivasa called him. Absolute GOAT shit this fight, Tafe is Tuivasa's teammate so they should have his number, but if Tafa loses that'd be hilarious too.

Prediction: Justin Tafa

Confidence in winner: 2

Sijara Eubanks vs. Melissa Gatto

Eubanks tends to always be value, people think her cardio issues are bigger than they really are and she also has steadily undeperformed her skills and physical talent. I don't know, Gatto just isn't that great, Sijara should, results aside, still be one of the top fighters of the division.

Prediction: Sijara Eubanks

Confidence in winner: 3

Andre Ewell vs. Charles Jourdain

Great fight. Ewell one of the trickiest fighters in R1, but fades pretty hard, and Arce pretty much laid the blueprint on how to disable him even in the first round. 

Jourdain should be able to do what Arce did but yea Ewell is dangerous in those early exchanges and to be fair has never gotten an R1 finish in UFC level, so I'd have to get really great odds to get that. 

You know what, fuck it.

Prediction: Andre Ewell R1

Confidence in winner: 2

Raquel Pennington vs. Macy Chiasson

Raquel has fought in the elite echelon's of the division but to be fair, she isn't that great. Neither is Chiasson but Chiasson is physically strong and tough to deal with. Expect kinda messy, even fight, not really caring much either way, just don't really trust Pennington any more and Chiasson's strength will be a problem.

Prediction: Macy Chiasson

Confidence in winner: 2

Don'Tale Mayes vs. Josh Parisian

Ehh I really don't know, my first instict was Mayes but I kinda feel like Parisian might just kinda bulldoze over him. I guess underdog or pass, not feeling strong either way.

Prediction: Josh Parisian

Confidence in winner: 1

Jordan Leavitt vs. Matt Sayles

Leavitt forever fade against anyone not named Matt Wiman.

Prediction: Matt Sayles

Confidence in winner: 3