UFC on ESPN 31 Post-Fight Analysis

Another fight night ends with me breaking even but with poor record of mostly getting picks wrong. Let's go through the fights as usual and let's try to figure out what's going wrong constantly in my analysis.

Main Card

As far the main event goes, I don't think lot went wrong in my analysis. I did rate Aldo as the better fighter and expected him to be able to compromise Font to some extent early, that being said I did expect the first rounds to be closer... In a way Aldo even kind of underperformed for he did not really get off that much in the early going, losing most of the first two rounds - but he had the big moments nearly finishing Font with big shots and thus entered fifth round having feasibly won all rounds.

Font did try to go for the late finish but because Aldo had consistently managed to hurt him, that had made him unable to keep high enough pace to really tire out Aldo - don't get me wrong, Aldo was knackered by the end, but he still had enough to him to throw with the kind of power that once again rocked Font. So Aldo gets it by decision, something I really did not expect to happen. 

All in all Aldo probably gets finished by any of the division's top 3 fighters, but is still elite fighter at 135. I don't see Yan rematch going any differently than the first one went, if anything Aldo has lost a step since that match - remember the first two rounds in that fight were great from him. Yan is just a different level savage and has the durability and willpower to actually implrement that pace that absolutely drowns Aldo. 

As for Font, this should put to bed any title aspirations for him. It wasn't a good showing by any means, he failed to put on high volume, got repeatedly rocked and was just outskilled everywhere. 

In the co-main event I was completely on-point, Fiziev and Riddell had a close fight but Fiziev was edging it all through. The problem for Riddell was that Fiziev was making him very cautious, but by being cautious he was also avoiding eating the usual clean shots that he eats. That meant Fiziev was never under threat of being in the kind of pace that would have him tire late on. Instead he edged first two rounds in my mind on Octagon control and then finished the job with a delightful spin kick KO. Cashed big both on moneyline and prop bets.

As for the Crute v Hill, only thing that cashed there was fight not seeing scorecards. Crute went after Hill hard, but just throwing naked kicks largely, kinda stupid and reckless. Hill might have made a poor decision against Craig, but that doesn't suddenly mean that he isn't a dangerous and powerful striker and about 40 seconds was enough time for him to absolutely mangle Crute's face. 

Just over-rated Crute there, his striking, although powerful, just isn't so great in the end. Gave Hill plenty of opportunity to land his big shots. 

Guida v Santos was something I kind of predicted right as well, but failed to hit all my bets. I said one of them randomly dying was highly likely, and that almost happened with Guida being seconds away from being stopped, and then we had total cardio death of Santos. Unfortunately for me it happened too fast, I only had Guida R3 instead of R2. Oh well, Guida and FDGTD picks still hit, so that was one of the better fights of the night for my preview.

Chris Curtis grew into another fight that didn't start so great. I guess I had a ton of confidence on Allen based on hope that it seems he is improving, and he probably is improving, but I mean I faded Curtis based on very little data. That's back to back finishes for Curtis, maybe I was wrong that he actually has become a hitter late on in his career.

Mickey Gall just fought like shit against Morono. I said both guys are hard to predict, Gall is so fucking inconsistent and we got that absolutely awful version of him. Morono at least is somewhat consistently putting out decent striking with good output, and that was enough to comfortably edge Gall who just was content do his sloppy low-volume striking and not even try to grapple. 

Prelims

Ah, Maki Pitolo... the guy really could be great and the final fight for him was just as his whole UFC run has been. It seems it's all going well, he is starting to really put it on Dusko, momentum shifting for him, combinations landing... Dusko shoots under pressure, Maki successfully defends, but then decides to jump guard for a guillotine. Okay, fine, it's generally a poor decision, but if you gonna do it, YOU BETTER FINISH IT. instead he didn't and found himself finished from the top control few minutes later. Threw away a fight he was winning before that moment. 

Zhalgas Zhumagulov showed up fighting with piss and vinegar, looking to have Manel Kape a little overwhelmed early on. It was clear still that Kape was far more the more skillful fighter once he let go, and late on in the first round he had Zhalgas hurt and managed to find a finish. Kape is still infuriating guy to bet on, but he got the job done in style here. 

Bryan Barberena and Darian Weeks had a competitive fight, Bryan showing that he is still not completely shot, and the newcomer gave a decent account of himself, hanging well with the veteran in a fast-paced match.

Cheyanne Vlismas and Mallory Martin had an unremarkable match but Vlismas clearly ahead all through the fight, don't know the fuck Martin was keeping her hand up when the decisions were read. 

UFC Bodybuilding title or Tren Championship went to William Knight, was my big wrong read of the night. Should have known better than to trust on Menifield. Sure, he seemed to have better gas tank and skills than Knight, but the guy's just not that bright. That said it was a close fight where decision could have gone either way, but I won't be crying about guy who hugged all of 3rd round losing. Poor pick to be on a big favorite in scenario like that.

Chris Gruetzemacher showed up not looking at all like himself, like sleepwalking out there when he needed to make it ugly high pace brawl with Puelles. I don't think Puelles is that good, Gritz just couldn't implement the normal gameplan he needs to win fights at this level. Probably gotta fade him going forward, the guy just might be cooked by now.

Morales did just what all the sharps said he would and KOd Smolka. 

My picks

In the end I got 5 out of 13 picks right. In props I had a ton of props, something like 15, six of them hit and that's where I made most of my money. 5 units down on picks, 5 units up on props, roughly speaking, with Fiziev KO turning out to be the make or break moments of the night. 

All in all I don't once again really know what to make of it all. Menifield pick was a big fuck-up, I just sized that bet all wrong, but even if I fired more reasonably sized bet there, it wouldn't have changed much. 

I mean all I am gonna say is that this is tough game cause so small things can change so much in a fight. Another event next week and I still have somewhat healthy bankroll, so hopefully can do better.