UFC on ESPN 31 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo

Banger of a fight to finish off a fight night that actually has quite a bit of low-key bangers. Always find Font's fights difficult to predict, and similar thing for Aldo. Perhaps cause Font is definitely high level but not without his flaws. Still he seems to have been really putting it all together last few fights, really gave a bad beatdown to Cody Garbrandt. Aldo is elite though, but elite pretty much for only two rounds, then he will start fading. 

So in boxing Font has both the skill advantage and reach advantage, but given legkicking Aldo is back I think I expect the initial striking match to be close. Aldo will need to fight with urgency though given his limited gas tank and really put some early damage on Font. Font needs to either get KOd or seriously compromised early on for this fight to be close. 

Thing is, Aldo managed to seriously compromise Yan in their match, so I can't help but to feel odds are selling Aldo short here. It's just Yan is so tough and versatile that he managed to overcome it once Aldo got tired. 

Still, this is a main event so in all likelihood we go to a decision here and Aldo is more likely to get finished late on. Honestly quite a chaotic fight early cause I think Aldo will have to push for a finish and both are so potent strikers. I do think he might be able to disable Font's lead leg but Font might just still be able to use his range and volume the edge the latter rounds.

Like I really wanna play Aldo here since he is consistently underrated, but with persistent stamina problems and miles you don't know how well he will respond once fight goes deep. It's kinda tough to rely on early Aldo KO as well, given Font has never been KO'd. Endurance just makes such a big difference in this sport, particularly in lower divisions in five round fights.

Also worth noting that even when Aldo "dominates" guys lately, he does not completely overwhelm them, just  edges by few clean strikes per round. Increases chances of poor judges decisions or just generally close rounds. That just makes this kind of a situation that even if you rate Aldo skill-wise better than Font, Font just has so much more room to manuever in terms of durability and endurance that Aldo can only win by putting on a clinic. I hope for that cause I love me some classic Aldo masterclass, but I don't expect it to happen.

Prediction: Rob Font / Font by decision

Confidence in winner: 3

Co-Main Event: Brad Riddell vs. Rafael Fiziev

People are saying Riddell is the one under-rated here, but I don't know. I gotta say so far his style hasn't translated perfectly to MMA. I'm a fan of his fighting style, but from analytical point of view I think he has been getting too much. That being said, he probably has the wrestling edge here as he showed some wrestling against Dober and should things start to go wrong, he might use that instead of making this a muay thai match in 4 ounce gloves.

For sure Fiziev is better striker than Dober, and Riddell getting rocked a few times already on his UFC career makes it likely he gets rocked here in what probably will be a wild scrap. So I would have small punt on Fiziev ITD but mainly favoring him on the moneyline. Fiziev just makes less errors. Either way it ought to be chaotic war that has small margins.

Prediction: Rafael Fiziev / Fiziev ITD

Confidence in winner: 3

Jimmy Crute vs. Jamahal Hill

So Hill loses against Craig and their response is to match him up with younger, more powerful and more skilled guy? Talk about throwing the kid into the deep end. Well, Hill might still be the real deal even if he made stupid decision against Craig, but we are about to find out. I know what I think, I think Crute absolutely devastates him in basically any manner he wants to. I'm gonna be heavy on Crute here in all manners.

Prediction: Jimmy Crute / Crute ITD / Crute R1 / FDGTD

Clay Guida vs. Leonardo Santos

Ehh well Santos seems like he could be much the better fighter right now, but they are both ancient as fighters. Guida ought to have the stamina advantage but you can't trust on either of these guys at this point of their careers. So I am more likely to play with just funny money on Guida just cause I like him. Also ITD seems solid since both are old and likely to just randomly die at some point.

Prediction: Clay Guida / Guida R3 / FDGTD

Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis

Was the Hawes fight a fluke for Curtis or has he suddenly leveled up his power and skill late on the career? I kind of tend to think it was a fluke since that fight was all Hawes until it ended. Allen probably won't mess around too much on the feet anyway, he prefers to grapple and will probably have a comfortable advantage there. 

Will expect him to take a damage on the feet but I'd think he is better by large enough margin to probably finish this fight majority of the time. His last two fights were against much bigger hitters anyway, so I wouldn't be overly worried about him getting starched here. 

Prediction: Brendan Allen / Allen ITD

Confidence in winner: 4

Alex Morono vs. Mickey Gall

Another couple of fighters that look just very hard to predict for me. Sure, Gall's last fight was very obvious on how it's gonna go, but generally the guy has been very inconsistent. Morono on the other hand hasn't really faced someone who will grapple him urgently, and even if Gall doesn't he still is the harder hitter of the two. Morono's taken couple of KO losses so anything's possible here.

All in all would favor Gall to edge it, but if he does not finish it I would think third round will be a sweat as he fades and Morono tends to keep a good pace.

Prediction: Mickey Gall

Confidence in winner: 2

Maki Pitolo vs. Dusko Todorovic

I really like both of these fighters, but given the rough early going they have had in their careers, one of them will probably be done in UFC for now. Either way both are guys who like to scrap hard, heavy-handed with not that much defence. I really like Todorovic style of throwing heavy hands and trying to roll out of the way of the counters, but in practice he has tended to end up starched.

That being said Pitolo hasn't actually KO'd anyone since Byrd who had no chin, so I don't know, my general feeling before I started writing this was that I'd favor Pitolo, but now that I think about it, Todorovic definitely has an advantage in gas tank and maybe even in power too. 

I dunno, maybe some funny money on Pitolo here, let's see if he can keep it together for three rounds for once. Feel like I can't be too wrong either way here, should be competitive and also chaotic fight.

Prediction: Maki Pitolo

Confidence in winner: 1

Manel Kape vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Dodgy fight. Kape is levels better fighter obviously and odds reflect that, but it's not like his low volume has not bit him in the ass before. That said it's not like Zhalgas is that urgent either. Either way at this level you aren't gonna get much easier match-up than this, so Kape should really be looking to finish here.

For all his flaws thought, Zhalgas does tend to stay out of harms way well and doesn't get hit with a lot of big shots. It could feel like a different fight with him against a guy who is clearly better than him than the recent fights where he has fought similarly bottom-feeder competition.

Either way Kape is unreliable enough here that you don't wanna go in heavy.

Prediction: Manel Kape / Kape ITD

Bryan Barberena vs. Darian Weeks

At these odds? Yea I take Barberena over some unproven prospect. Yea it might be that Barberena is completely past it but more often than not these veterans still have more left in the tank than given credit for and that experience counts, I mean see Glover for instance. So yea, small punt on Barberena, but make no mistake we know this might end ugly too.

Prediction: Bryan Barberena

Confidence in winner: 2

Jake Matthews vs. Jeremiah Wells

No strong feelings about this Matthews is a very steady performer, but doesn't seem to have any particularly elite skill, Wells is dangerous too and should not be too far from Matthews' level. Matthews tends to edge his wins closely, he is functional if unspectacular, but maybe Wells surprise might be worth a punt here.

Prediction: Jeremiah Wells

Confidence in winner: 2

Cheyanne Buys vs. Mallory Martin

Low-level women's MMA. I guess, don't go big on any favorites? Think Cheyanne is overall better, but she did get beaten by one move being spammed over and over again before. 

Prediction: Cheyanne Buys

Confidence in winner: 2

Alonzo Menifield vs. William Knight

For the undisputed Tren title, the ultimate low-skill meathead fight. Then again Menifield does actually have some skill, he just tends to have one round of gas tank. Knight on the other hand is more like a bodybuilder who has done well to get this far in the fight game. 

Menifield should have big advantage here though, but I still see him kinda one round and bust kind of guy. At the same time, Knight isn't too different with all that muscle. I think I will load up on Menifield R1, but expect it to be two muscled guys panting late on after failing to kill each other. Like either Menifield kills him fast or they go for a plodding point-fight that Menifield wins easy. Knight has path to victory via something weird like last time or via grinding wrestling fight, since the guy probably does mix some EPO on his tren shakes. 

Prediction: Alonzo Menifield / Menifield R1

Claudio Puelles vs. Chris Gruetzemacher

Gritz is gonna be outskilled by pretty much everyone in the UFC, but the man takes it and puts a pace and he has pulled it off against some reasonably tough guys. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he does it against Puelles.

Prediction: Chris Gruetzemacher / Gritz R3

Louis Smolka vs. Vince Morales 

If it was just me, I would probably pick Smolka here on pace, experience and everything. However all my favorite sharps are on Morales here, so guess I have to be on him too. I do understand the reasoning though. Smolka has been finished couple of times lately and is very hittable, whereas Morales, after not looking so impressive, has been putting it together better.

Still, I don't know, Morales didn't look that impressive last time around considering his opponent was barely UFC level, this is much harder fight than that one. 

Either way probably a finish will be live, since Morales will be looking to KO Smolka coming in, and Smolka on the other hand likes to aggressively look for submissions. 

I gotta fade all my favorite sharps here and go on my own intuition, I don't think Smolka is sufficiently big favorite to warrant picking against him on the off chance that Morales might actually be better than he seems.

Prediction: Louis Smolka & FDGTD

Confidence in winner: 2